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Review of yesterday’s matches.

A superb fight back from Andy Murray would have amply rewarded 1.04 layers of Novak Djokovic. I was quite accurate with the Valeranga v Rosenborg match. Both teams to score and Rosenborg to outscore Valeranga. No goal before halftime but given there were 3 goals, it was a logical lay the 0-0 halftime score. Both teams scored in the AGF v AB match, as you'd expect of an AB side needing the win. 5-3 it ended. Fredericia only needed a draw to stay 3rd bottom and safe in Danish Division 1. 1-1 it ended. A pity that Koge did not score first. TPS Turku scored 5 goals for the 2nd consecutive home match. A team worth following this season in Finland? Barcelona scored 2/3 goals as they have done regularly in the Champions League. Uruguay scored before halftime and won with ease. Argentina were thoroughly emphatic even without Tevez and Messi and will be relishing the Copa America which kicks off next week. On to today...

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

I have highlighted the dead rubbers and the must wins below. I hope they are of some help.

Odds taken from www.willhill.com

13:00 UK Basel v Sion - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Schweizer pokal. 2 1-1 draws and a 0-1 Basel win in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Both sides are Super Lig sides.

Basel

  • Only 2 losses in 14 matches.
  • Only 1 win in their last 4 matches.
  • Have conceded 2-2-3 in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 22 matches in all competitions at home.
  • Have only 1 loss in the cup since 2006.  No defeat in 23 cup matches.
  • No defeat in 12 home cup matches.
  • 1-1, 1-1 and 1-0 Basel in the last 3 home cup matches.

Sion

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came last match.
  • In their last 7 matches away, they have scored 1-1-1-1-1-0-0-. 4 of the wins were 0-1.
  • Only 3 losses in this cup since 2008 saw 2 1-0 losses to Luzern and a 0-1 loss to Basel.
  • Only 1 away loss in the cup since 2008

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Likely to be a tight match with 2 form teams in the cup. I would opt for a 1-0 home win or a 1-1 judging by the recent form. Basel though have scored 2-2-3 in their last 3 matches and at home must be favoured today. I would lay Sion if they score first.
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13:00 UK Republic of Ireland v England - 2.15 away

Standout Stats

  • 4 1-1 draws and a 1-0 Ireland win, albeit head to heads came from 1995 and earlier, apart from the last 1-1 draw in 2013
  • Ireland have won their last 2 friendlies v Oman and the USA.
  • Losses at home to Serbia, Turkey and portugal
  • Only 2 friendly losses in 13 matches for England were against Chile and Germany.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I cannot make a prediction here. I read for instance about Rooney being in New York doing Karaoke. I would want to see England team news.
  • On form, England are the team to be with, but these domestic internationals are perhaps not so straightforward as the form book would have it.
  • What chance 1-1? I may back that pre match.
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15:00 UK FC Copenhagen v Hobro - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • 2nd v 7th in the Danish Super Liga
  • 0-3 Hobro and 0-2 Copenhagen in the 2 head to heads. That clears that up then!!

Copenhagen

  • A win takes them within a point of 1st.
  • Copenhagen cannot win the league therefore this is a dead rubber. They remain 2nd regardless.
  • 7 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 11 wins and 2 draws in their last 13 home matches.

Hobro

  • Only 1 win in 7
  • Have conceded 5-2-1-0-4-2 in recent matches.
  • Jekyll and Hyde recently away. 3-0 loss, 0-1 win v Brondby, 5-0 loss, 0-1 win, 4-2 loss. What is it to be today?

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A match to tread warily with. A dead rubber.
  • Hobro are unpredictable. Conceding 3+ goals away in 1 match, winning 0-1 in another. Which Hobro turns up today?
  • A match I will leave alone today.
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15:00 UK Vestsjaelland v Silkeborg - 1.83 home

Standout Stats

  • Both sides are relegated. Another dead rubber.
  • 2-0 and 1-2 Vestsjaelland in the head to heads.
  • Silkeborg are poor. Only 2 wins this season suggests we can tentatively (as this is a dead rubber) side with the home team.
  • Silkeborg have conceded in 28 matches and are likely to concede so that is a decent angle in.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • With no win in 11 matches, Silkeborg should not be winning this match. They are likely to concede so that is my angle in should they score first or should the match be 0-0 for a while. It is a dead rubber though.
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15:00 UK AaB Aalborg v Nordsjaelland - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • It is the top 4 I think who gain the most in the Danish Super Liga.  These 2 cannot breach the top 4 so have nothing realistically to play for.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Another dead rubber.
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15:00 UK Brondby v Esbjerg - 1.75 home

Standout Stats

  • This is another Danish dead rubber so just a short look.
  • 0-0, 1-0 Brondby, 2-2 , 0-0 in the last 4 head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 for Brondby.
  • Only 1 loss in 12 home matches too for Brondby.
  • Esjberg have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Another dead rubber. Brondby are the form side here though. Enough to favour them today in their last home match.
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15:00 UK Midtjylland v SonderjyskE - 1.4 home

Standout Stats

  • Celebratory mood for the Danish Champions in the last match of the season, which happens to be at home.
  • 1-3 Midt and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 win in 5 and they can really loosen those belts today. I don't think their home support will be bothered if they win today, and neither will the home side.
  • Sonderjyske have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.2-2, 2-2, 2-3 in their last 3 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I am bowing out of this Danish match too I'm afraid. A dead rubber. Both teams to score has a chance here.
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16:00 UK Russia v Belarus - 1.5 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads since 2002.
  • The Belarussian league is still being played so I am not sure we will see a full squad for the away team?
  • Only 2 losses for Russia in all competitions since September 2013.
  • Unbeaten in 21 matches in friendlies. 6 wins in their last 8 friendlies.
  • Russia are unbeaten in 12 home matches.
  • 5 wins and a 0-0 at home in those friendlies in the last 6 matches.
  • 5 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • Recent friendly wins for Belarus v Liechtenstein, Tajikistan, and Mexico.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Russia have a superb friendly record. Is this enough to favour them? I would lay Belarus if they scored first.
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16:30 UK PK-35 v EIF - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Finnish Ykkonen
  • 2nd v 10th after 6 matches. Likely not enough matches to come to any realistic conclusions. Liquidity is also an issue.
  • These 2 have not met since 2011.

PK-35

  • No draw yet this season. Only 2 defeats.
  • Lost their last home match.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.
  • 5 of the 6 home goals were scored 2nd half.

EIF

  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • No win this season.
  • 3 losses in 4.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of 6.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Bits and bobs to work with. Lay the late draw incase PK continue to avoid the draw. Lay EIF if they score first. They score and concede and are yet to win.
  • Both teams to score has a chance.
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17:00 UK Girona v Lugo - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • 5 consecutive Girona wins in head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 15th in the Spanish Segunda Division.
  • Girona will be equal on points with Real Betis if they win and Betis lose. Girona will be title winners if they win this match, Betis lose, and Girona somehow overcome an 8 goal Betis positive goal difference. Stranger things have happened!

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds are right here based on desire and motivation. Expect Girona to win, and back them if they concede first.
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17:00 UK Sabadell v Osasuna - 1.67 away

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 when these 2 met in January 2015
  • This is 21st v 18th in the Spanish Segunda Division
  • This is the last match of the season. Sabadell are down but Osasuna with a draw will secure segunda division status. If Osasuna lose today and 4th bottom Santander win, Osasuna will be in the relegation zone on inferior goal difference.
  • Sabadell have lost 5 of their last 6 matches so are off the boil and are relegation fodder regardless today.
  • Only 1 loss for Osasuna in their last 5 matches. They have scored and conceded in 3 of their last 4 matches.,
  • No win in 9 away is a major hurdle for Osasuna. They have though drawn their last 2 away matches. A glimmer of hope.
  • Osasuna are unbeaten home and away v the bottom 3.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • No indepth research as needs-must for Osasuna. I don't expect them to lose today as a draw secures Segunda Division status. They have drawn their last 2 away matches, score drawn mind you, so if Sabadell score first, lay them. Luckily for Osasuna, Sabadell are off the boil in a major way.
  • A match to definitely have Osasuna on your side, but remember a draw is all that they need.
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17:00 UK Mjondalen v Sarpsborg Sparta - 2.37 home

Standout Stats

  • Rather like Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga, Mjondalen are a team I am keen to follow this Norwegian season, built largely on backing them at 18/1 during a DRT live chat, and them obliging from 2-0 down to win 3-2.  They also took Rosenborg to a 3-2 so there seems to be goals in them their hills with Mjondalen.
  • These 2 have only met recently in friendlies.

Mjondalen

  • 5 losses and 2 wins in their last 7 matches.
  • 4-5-1-7-5-6-3-6 goals in total in recent matches. Now you see my interest!
  • 3-2-4-3-5 conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came first match of the season.
  • Only failed to score in 2 matches.
  • Mjondalen have never led at halftime at home yet.

Sarpsborg

  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches.
  • Only 3 defeats all season, 2 came in their last 3 matches at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 away matches, 2 draws and a win.
  • Only 1 loss away
  • Have never led at halftime away!

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would lay Mjondalen if they take a 2-0 lead today.
  • Both teams to score has a great chance today,
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in the expectation for goals.
  • Speculate on over 4.5 goals if this is 0-0 for a while. I do hope Mjondalen turn into the Hoffenheim of the Norwegian Eliteserien
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17:00 UK Stabaek v Bodo-Glimt - 1.61 home

Standout Stats

  • Stabaek are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads. 2 were 1-1
  • This is 15th v 2nd after 11 matches in the Norwegian Eliteserien.

Stabaek

  • Only 2 losses includes a 2-3 to Rosenborg.
  • 3 home wins prior to that defeat above.
  • 7 clean sheets in 9 matches. 2 of the last 3 matches though were 3-3 and 2-3 loss.
  • Wins to nil thus far v bottom 3 sides.
  • Scored first in all 5 home matches.

Bodo-Glimt

  • No win in 5 away
  • 3-2-2-1-3 conceded in those aways.
  • Only 2 wins , came in last 2 home matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • Wins came at home v current 12th and lower.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • It's early in the season. The 2-2 and 2-3 recently for Stabaek were not the norm. Usually it was clean sheets galore.
  • Bodo are conceding for fun and I expect them to concede at least 2 goals. Lay them if they lead.
  • Lay the 0--0 halftime score.
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17:00 UK Kristiansund v Bryne - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-3, 3-0 Kris and a 1-1 in head to heads recently.
  • This is 5th v 10th in the Norwegian first division

Kristiansund

  • 3 defeats this season, 2 were 0-1 at home.
  • Only 1 win at home this season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet in 9 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6.

Byrne

  • Conceded in their last 11 matches and last 5 away
  • No draw in 6.
  • All bar 2 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Byrne are likely to concede today so that's a real angle in. Both teams could score if the over 2.5 goals continues. Lay Byrne if they score first.
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17:00 UK Sandnes Ulf v Baerum - 1.61 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads.
  • This is 9th v 3rd in the Norwegian First Division

Sandnes

  • Only 3 wins this season, but only 2 defeats, which came last 2 matches.
  • 6 draws this season.
  • Draw, Win, Win, Win, Loss at home this season.
  • Both teams scored in their last 5 at home
  • All draws bar 1 came away from home.

Baerum

  • 2 match winning streak away
  • Scored in their last 5 matches.
  • 6 wins in their last 8 matches. Only 1 loss in those 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Early stages in this season. Both teams to score is a logical choice here. Usually this means laying any side 2-0 up.
  • Lay any late draws. Sandnes tend to draw away from home.
  • Baerum are the form side. I would lay Sandnes if they score first.
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18:00 UK Leganes v Real Zaragoza - 1.65 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 to Real Zaragoza earlier this season.
  • This is 9th v 6th in the Spanish Segunda Division. This is a must-win for Real Zaragoza. If Ponferradina win, and Zaragoza do not, Ponferradina take over the 6th spot and promotion play-off place. So Zaragoza really have to win to ensure that they are safe regardless of what others do.

Leganes

  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • Last 3 defeats all came away from home.
  • Only those 3 losses in their last 12 matches.
  • 4 draws and 2 wins in their last 6 home matches.
  • Only 3 losses at home v 2nd, 3rd and 12th.

Zaragoza

  • 2 losses in their last 3 matches came at home. Nerves showing?
  • Only 1 loss in their last 6 away though.scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away. Are scoring, but also conceding meaning 2 goals required at least to win.
  • Only 5 away wins, and 1-1 and 0-1 wins v teams around Leganes in the league.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Zaragoza can still retain 6th place and a play-off but if not winning, they are reliant on others to help. A must win therefore today for a side with only 5 away wins all season. The recent score draws are promising and suggest Zaragoza may not lose, but also suggests 2+ goals required for the win. Leganes are in decent form, only 3 losses in 12 and only 3 losses at home.
  • The question is whether we adopt the "Must wins tend to win" philosophy and default to Zaragoza here and lay Leganes if Leganes lead or are winning coming to the end of the match.
  • I would be tempted with a 1-1, 1-2 scoreline today.
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18:00 UK Real Betis v Sporting Gijon - 1.91 away

Standout Stats

  • 5 betis wins v 1 Sporting win in head to heads. Betis needed to score 2 to win in each case.
  • this is 1st v 3rd. Betis are all but Champions. 3 point gap to 2nd and a positive 8 goal difference. They would have to lose heavily today and Girona win heavily today in order to be threatened as Champions. Of course, a draw is perfect.
  • As to Sporting Gijon, a win will take them a point above Girona IF Girona lose. This is the 2nd automatic promotion spot. Gijon seem resigned to the play-offs though.  It's mighty tight if Girona draw and Gijon win as the goal difference is only 1 presently.

Real Betis

  • 2 match winning streak, scoring in their last 16 at home.
  • Only 3 defeats since 23rd November, and one defeat last match away to Tenerife.
  • 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 at home.
  • 3-5-2-4-3 scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • 12 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 14.
  • Only 3 defeats at home.

Sporting Gijon

  • No defeat in 14 matches and in 6 away
  • 5 wins in their last 6 matches.4 draws and a win in their last 5 away matches.
  • 8 clean sheets in their last 11 matches.
  • Failed to win home and away v top 5. 5 draws and 2 defeats.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Only a mind-bending permutation will strip Real Betis of the title this afternoon. All to play for for Gijon , a win a must in order to ensure they can take advantage of a Girona implosion.
  • 2 very solid in-form sides but the truth is that Gijon have failed to win v top 4 home and away. I suspect they could be layed if they score first . With 12 over 2.5 goals matches in 14, Both teams could contribute to the expected 3+ goals.
  • Tough to read Betis to be honest. Too much sangria before this home match?
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18:00 UK Mirandes v Mallorca - 1.91 home

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 Mallorca and 0-0 last 2 head to heads.
  • Again Mirandes with a win will fall short of the play-off places. Mallorca are safe from relegation.
  • Another dead rubber.
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18:00 UK Ponferradina v Alcorcon - 1.55 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-2 Alcorcon, 1-1 draw in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is the last match of the season between 7th and 12th in the Spanish Segunda Division. It is, I am happy to report, not a dead rubber. If Ponferradina win, they have a chance of finishing in 6th spot (if Real Zaragoza draw or lose) which is a play-off place.

Ponferradina

  • The last 4 matches have been 1-0, 2 defeats and 2 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 loss in their last 8 home matches was said 0-1.
  • 1-1-1-0-1 scored only in their last 5 home matches.
  • Only 3 defeats at home v 3rd, 10th and 13th.

Alcorcon

  • The Roma of Spain! They love their draws. 9 draws in their last 14 matches. They have drawn 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • only 2 wins in their last 12 away matches.
  • 1-1-0-0-1-1-0 scored in recent away matches.
  • All losses away v top 5 and a 1-1 draw v 6th. Playing 7th away today.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Must wins tend to win , right? That's how I am approaching this match which is definitely on the shortlist. Alcorcon have recently been limited goalscorers so I would lay them if they score first , as they have rarely scored 2+ away recently. Ponferradina themselves have problems scoring at home recently. I fear they may need to break a bad habit and score 2 today. 1-0, 1-1, 2-1 are the 3 scorelines I think this match could revolve around.
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18:00 UK Valladolid v Llagostera - 1.95 home

  • This is a dead rubber. Valladolid are in the Play-offs regardless of the result today. Llagostera are currently 10th, not going up, not going down.
  • 2-0 to Llagostera earlier this year.
  • And that is where I will end this research.
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18:00 UK Norway Women v Thailand Women - 1.01 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the women's World Cup. I think Fernando Torres is in the Spanish side. Do remember that teams which are literally unbackable should win to nil, and post a big scoreline.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I would be looking at 7-0, 9-0, 11-0 here as my speculative correct score punts today. 7-0 defeats have occured a few times for Thailand ladies so that is a good opening gambit here.
  • If 0-0 for a while in the first half, make sure you back Norway halftime or lay the 0-0 halftime score as goals are expected before half-time.
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20:00 UK France v Belgium - 2.05 home

Standout Stats

  • This should be an entertaining match
  • 2 consecutive recent 0-0's in 2011 and 2013 in friendlies.
  • Only 1 loss in 14 friendlies for France was against Brazil.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 home friendlies was v Brazil.
  • 5 consecutive friendly wins for Belgium but really against teams they are expected to beat.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • there are so many imponderables here and I would really need to see team news to come to any firm conclusions. Some players may be excused today after having been globe trotting on team promotions.
  • Both sides are in excellent friendly form and slight favour would go with the home side.
  • I am afraid I am drawing a blank on any "angles " into this match
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21:00 UK Brazil v Mexico - 1.44 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • Brazil will be without Neymar of course.
  • 17 consecutive wins for Brazil in friendlies.
  • 11 consecutive home wins with 9 clean sheets for BRazil
  • Recent friendly losses v Belarus and USA for Mexico.
  • 6 wins to nil in the last 10 friendlies.
  • Only 2 wins in the last 8 away friendlies. 2 defeats and a draw in the last 3 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • What an amazing record Brazil has and it simply points to them tonight, despite being without Neymar. 11 wins at home in a row, 9 to nil.
  • I am not sure of any angle in. Brazil are the much likeliest first goal scorers in this warm up for the Copa America.