Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

'Tis the time to take on the short priced favourites. And it so nearly came off as we layed Bayern Munich at 1.05 only for Darmstadt to miss a late-late penalty. The bar stewards! I thought the research was very accurate all-in-all yesterday and highlighted some great trading angles.
13:30 looks the logical time for a live chat as it encompasses the Dutch Eredivisie and the Liverpool home match. See you here at delayreacttrade.com, simultaneously broadcast @drtclub Twitter.

11:00 - Alaves v Athletic Bilbao - 1.85 Ath Bilbao

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 10th v 6th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • 3 matches remain this season.
  • 4th place is possible for Ath Bilbao.

Alaves 100% stats

  • v 3rd-16th inclusive, Alaves have not conceded more than 1 goal in a match.

Alaves other stats

  • Unbeaten in 4 matches.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only scored 2 goals at home twice v top 16 teams.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Clean sheets away v 7th-11th.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • 8 wins and 2 defeats last 10 matches.
  • 4 wins in 5 aways.
  • No draw in 16 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Losses away v 1st-5th, unbeaten v 7th-11th, losses v 12th-15th.

Conclusions

  • Ath Bilbao's away form is muddling but recently they have 4 wins in 5 aways, 8 wins in 10 matches and look to be on a run for 4th place. Based on that recent form, I would favour Ath Bilbao and lay Alaves if Alaves score first. Alaves have scored 2 goals in a game only twice v top 16 teams.
  • Lay any late draw.

11:30 - Udinese v Atalanta - 1.83 Atalanta

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • 1-3 Udinese in the last head to head.
  • This is 11th v 5th in Italian Seria A.
  • Only 4 matches remaining for both sides. Atalanta could get to top 3 but that will require other teams to lose wholesale.

Udinese stats

  • 2 defeats in 3 matches.
  • A draw and 3 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 3 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Not beaten the top 4 home or away but have won 3/3 at home and away v 5th and 6th.
  • V 6th-14th at home, we saw 5 2-1 scorelines and a 2-2.

Atalanta stats

  • Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 6 but 3 score draws in their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 10 and play 11th today.
  • 19 of 29 goals scored away in the first half.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. I would even back 2-2 today given Udinese have scored 2 + goals in each of their last 3 matches and Atalanta have had 3 score draws in 4 matches.

12:00 - The English Championship.

Last day of the season - Only 3 matches of any import.

  • Aston Villa v Brighton - a dead rubber. Brighton are promoted.
  • Brentford v Blackburn - 2.4 Brentford - all to play for, for Blackburn who must win and let the chips fall where they may.
  • Bristol City v Birmingham City -  A draw might do for Birmingham City to avoid relegation. A win will confirm this.
  • Burton Albion v Reading - Reading are safe in the promotion play-offs. Burton are safe. A dead rubber.
  • Huddersfield v Cardiff -  A dead rubber. Huddersfield are in the promotion play-off places
  • Newcastle v Barnsley - A dead rubber. Newcastle's last Championship match at home. They won the last match they had nothing to play for in, so market expectation is for a home win to cap it off.
  • Norwich City v QPR - A dead rubber.
  • Nottingham Forest v Ipswich Town - A must win for Nottingham Forest. A draw may do but will rely on losses elsewhere..
  • Rotherham United v Derby County - A dead rubber.
  • Sheffield Wednesday v Fulham - Both teams will remain in the promotion play-off places unless Leeds win 13-0 and Fulham fail to score in defeat.
  • Wigan v Leeds United - A dead rubber. Leeds cannot really catch Fulham with a 13 goal difference. Wigan are relegated.
  • Wolverhampton v Preston - A dead rubber.

13:30 - Ajax v Go Ahead Eagles - 1.09 Ajax

  • I will not research in depth here. 0-3 Ajax when these 2 last met. The market expects 3/4 goals minimum today from 2nd placed Ajax.
  • Go Ahead eagles are relegated.
  • Ajax scored 3-5 goals v bottom 2 this season. They are unbeaten in 14 matches.
  • Go Ahead failed to score v top 4 away.
  • It all looks rather straightforward.

13:30 - Excelsior v Feyenoord - 1.25 Feyenoord

  • Feyenoord have scored 3 or 4 goals in head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 1st in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • 2 matches remain. If Feyenoord win today, they win the title.
  • 3 consecutive wins for Excelsior, the last 2 were 1-0.
  • In 13 of their last 15 matches, Excelsior only managed to score a single goal at least in a game.
  • Excelisor scored and conceded at home v top 5 wihout winning.
  • Feyenoord's 3 defeats have come away, 2 were 0-1 and the other a 2-1 v Ajax.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win for Feyenoord recently away, so wobbling slightly.
  • This is a match of circumstance today. Feyenoord win, they win the title. Will Excelsior score and concede again?
  • In a match of this import, I would actually lay Feyenoord at such short odds and hope for a hiccup! Unlikely to come in but worth a go given what happened in Holland last year.

13:30 - Groningen v PSV - 1.46 PSV

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 10th v 3rd in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • PSV cannot win the title but can finish 2nd. They must win their remaining 2 matches.
  • The possibility of a top 7 finish is there for Groningen and that, I believe allows for the possibility of European competition.

Groningen 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 3 side home or away.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 this season.

Groningen other stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 10 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.
  • Only 1 win v top 11 at home.
  • 94% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Scored first in 12/16 at home.

PSV 100% stats

  • All 2 defeats came v 1st in the league.
  • Not lost to nil away.

PSV other stats

  • 2 consecutive away draws.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • All draws bar 2 have come v 7th-12th home and away.

Conclusions

  • Needs must for PSV who must win to keep a top 2 berth in their sights. They meet a Groningen side on something of a revival, but noticeably with no win v top 3 this season and only 1 home win v top 11.
  • Groningen meet a PSV who have only lost to Ajax this season and have scored in their last 17 matches.
  • I would expect PSV not to lose. Note Groningen have not had a 1-0 or 0-1 this season. So note that if the match is either of these scorelines for a period of time.

13:30 - Roda JC v Willem II - 1.78 Roda

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 15th v 11th in the Dutch Eredivisie.
  • 2 matches remain this season. It is simple. 2 wins for Roda secures survival this season. A draw will see them 3 points clear of relegation with a match to play.
  • 5 wins in 7 for Roda so they are winning at the right time of the season.
  • Roda's 5 wins at home came v 10th and lower so they know they can beat 11th in the league on form.
  • 4 defeats in 5 for Willem II. They are safe. Nothing to play for and it tells in recent matches!
  • Willem II have failed to score in their last 3 matches away.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 away for Willem II v 13th and lower is a sign that, like Roda, on form they should not lose v 15th.
  • Motivation v nothing to play for?
  • 0-0 may be in play. 0-0 last time and 0-0 Willem away v 14th and 17th.
  • I do like Roda's recent winning form at home and would oppose any Willem II lead today.

13:30 - Liverpool v Southampton - 1.64 Liverpool

  • 0-1 Southampton the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 3rd v 9th in the premiership.

Liverpool stats

  • 3 matches remain.
  • It looks to be a case of fighting for 3rd spot for Liverpool as their season-end goal.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches came last home match v Palace.
  • Scored in their last 14 home matches. Scored and conceded last 5 home matches.
  • 2 home matches without a win.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten v top 15 at home.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 6th-18th.

Southampton stats

  • 2 losses and a draw last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 9 away.
  • Scored in each of their last 6 away.
  • Not beaten a top 6 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • No win in 2 for Liverpool must change if they are to maintain 3rd spot. Both teams could score today.
  • Liverpool are likely to remain unbeaten but score and concede.
  • Lay Southampton if Southampton score first.

14:00 - Sassuolo v Fiorentina - 2.26 Fiorentina

  • 2-1 Fiorentina in the last head to head.
  • This is 14th v 8th in Italian Seria A.
  • Sassuolo are safe from relegation. At a stretch, Fiorentina still have something to aim for.

Sassuolo 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.

Sassuolo other stats

  • Unbeaten in 4.
  • 5 consecutive home defeats ended with a win and a 2-2 draw with Napoli.
  • Scored and conceded last 6.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • All away wins came v 12th and lower so Sassuolo are in the right section of the league table.

Fiorentina other stats

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches. 2 defeats in their last 3 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away.
  • Opponents have scored first in 12/17 aways and led at halftime in 11/17 aways.

Conclusions

  • Sassuolo have secured another Seria A season so job done. Fiorentina can still climb to a European competition place but are wobbling at the moment. On form Fiorentina should not lose. Their away wins come in the bottom half of the table. Sassuolo are yet to beat a top 9 team at home. Are you with the form and a wobbly Fiorentina?
  • Lay the late 0-0.

14:00 - Lazio v Sampdoria - 1.26 Lazio

  • 1-2 Lazio in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 4th v 10th in Italian Seria A.
  • 4 matches remain for both teams.
  • Top 3 is possible for Lazio but requires Napoli to lose all of their remaining matches. Sampdoria have little to play for.

Lazio 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.

Lazio other stats

  • Scored 2 goals at least in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 home matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Defeats at home v 1st, 2nd and 3rd and 12th. Failed to score in those defeats.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th.
  • 14 of 17 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Sampdoria 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Have lost away v top 5.
  • Scored and conceded in defeat v top 3.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Sampdoria other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 matches.
  • 6 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at halftime.
  • 3 of 4 away wins were 0-1.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Lazio tend to fail to score in defeats at home. Sampdoria tend to win away to nil. So, if Lazio score, they should not lose. Lazio scored and conceded v 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th and play 10th today so I am going to take a chance on Lazio scoring and not losing.
  • So lay Sampdoria if Sampdoria score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based more on Sampdoria's recent record.

14:00 - Genoa v Inter - 1.81 Inter

  • The head to heads tend to be won by the home side. 1-0, 3-2, 1-0 last 3 head to heads at Genoa.
  • This is 16th v 7th in Italian Seria A.
  • 4 matches remain for both sides.
  • Genoa are uncomfortably near the relegation zone.
  • Top 4 possible for Inter but requires Lazio, Atalanta and Milan all to lose all remaining matches.

Genoa 100% stats

  • None.

Genoa other stats

  • 6 defeats and a 2-2 last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 win since 18th December 2016.
  • Only 3 clean sheets since 30th October 2016.
  • No win in 9 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.
  • Beat 6th and 8th at home and play 7th today.
  • 13 goals conceded at home last 1/2 hour of matches.

Inter Milan 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw away v 10th and lower.

Inter Milan other stats

  • 4 defeats and 2 draws in their last 6 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • In 12 of last 13 matches, no 0-0 at halftime.
  • 6 wins and a loss away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Inter are a rare breed. Still no 0-0 this season so note that if 0-0 late on and oppose the scoreline.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score while Inter are so poor defensively.
  • Probability wise, Inter Milan should be winning at best, drawing at worst against a Genoa with only 1 win since 18th December 2016. Inter actually have a solid winning record away v 13th and lower.
  • Do factor in the 'relegation six pointer' status of this match for Genoa. Will that engender an against-the-form surprise? They did beat 6th and 8th at home but this is a Genoa conceding 2+ goals in each of their last 5 matches.

14:00 - Chievo v Palermo - 1.68 Chievo

  • 0-2 Chievo in the last head to head.
  • This is 13th v 19th in Italian Seria A.
  • 4 matches remain for Palermo and they must be all won in order to extricate themselves from the relegation zone.
  • Chievo are safe and really have nothing much to play for.

Chievo

  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Scored in their last 5 home matches with 3 losses and 2 wins.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss at home v 10th and lower.
  • 5 losses in their last 6 matches.

Palermo

  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
  • 4-1-4-3-4-4-6 goals conceded recent away matches.

Conclusions

  • One of those muddling matches at this time of year. Chievo have little to play for but a good record at home v 10th and lower.
  • Palermo have a Grand Canyon gape at the back. 17 goals conceded last 4 away.
  • The market expects Chievo to continue inflicting doom on a Palermo side who must win all remaining matches. Are you with the market or sitting this one out?

14:00 - Empoli v Bologna - 1.75 Empoli

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads. When I see a run of 0-0's I like to oppose the sequence. 0-0 is the hardest sequence to keep going.
  • This is 17th v 15th in Italian Seria A. Empoli are 4 points ahead of the relegation zone. Bologna are 13 points ahead of relegation.
  • 4 matches remain. Job done therefore for Bologna who cannot be relegated. This is a match where there is only one motivated side. A win could take Empoli 7 points clear of relegation with 9 possible points remaining (assuming 3rd bottom loses).

Empoli 100% stats

  • None.

Empoli other stats

  • 2 wins in 3 matches came away from home and signal some fight. Both teams scored as they have in the last 4 matches, where there was only 1 defeat.
  • Empoli have scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 home matches.
  • Where Empoli scored first, they were pegged back.
  • Conceded in their last 13 matches.
  • Wins at home v 11th, 13th, 18th and 19th.

Bologna 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower at home albeit only scored more than 1 goal a game in 1 of 7 matches.

Bologna other stats

  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 17th and lower.
  • 18 of 27 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay the late 0-0 here and oppose the 2 0-0's in head to heads.
  • Note Bologna's season is over so attitude may be questionable. On form, Bologna may score against an Empoli conceding in their last 13 matches.
  • Bologna are actually unbeaten v bottom 4 albeit in unspectacular matches where 1-1 tends to turn up a lot.
  • Empoli have had a pattern of conceding if leading at home. Will that continue again?
  • Are you with the market and 'needs must' Empoli?

14:00 - Pescara v Crotone - 1.64 Crotone

  • 2-1 Crotone in the last head to head.
  • This is 20th v 18th in the Italian Seria A. Pescara are relegated.
  • Crotone are 4 points shy of safety and will remain bottom 3 with a win today but with 4 matches remaining, they actually have a chance of surviving.
  • Only 2 wins for Pescara this season.
  • 3 wins and 2 draws for Crotone in their last 5 matches saw them scoring and conceding.
  • 2 consecutive 1-2 away wins for Crotone.
  • I'm not going further. Crotone have hit a solid unbeaten streak and against a relegated Pescara should continue their run. As they keep scoring and conceding, Let's hope Pescara score first so we can lay Pescara.

14:30 - Hamburg v Mainz - 2.4 Hamburg

  • 3-1 Mainz in the last head to head.
  • This is 16th v 14th in the German Bundesliga. This is a relegation six-pointer and not a match where research will help.
  • Here are the basics though.
  • 4 consecutive 2-1 home matches for Hamburg, 3 wins and a 1-2 loss.
  • 4 defeats in 5 for Hamburg.
  • Hamburg scored in their last 11 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home for Hamburg.
  • 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-2 v 12th, 13th, 17th and 18th at home.
  • Only 1 win in 9 for Mainz.
  • 3 defeats and a draw away for Mainz. Draw was a 2-2 v Bayern.
  • 0-0, 2-1, 2-1 away v bottom 4.
  • I would lay any late 0-0. Backing 2-1 / 1-2 as a trading angle might work. 4 consecutive 2-1 Hamburg matches and 2 2-1 scorelines Mainz v bottom 3.

15:15 - Valencia v Osasuna - 1.26 Valencia

  • 1-1 and 3-3 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 20th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Osasuna are relegated.
  • Only 3 wins all season for Osasuna.
  • Valencia are unbeaten home and away v 16th and lower. They scored and conceded in all matches v bottom 3 teams.
  • A match in which the market expects Valencia to win with ease despite really there being no advantage.

16:00 - Arsenal v Man Utd - 2.08 Arsenal

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 6th v 5th in the Premiership.
  • 5 matches remain for Arsenal and 4 matches remain for Man Utd.
  • 6 points to top 4 for Arsenal. 1 point to top 4 for Man Utd.

Arsenal stats

  • Only 4 wins in 11 matches.
  • 3 wins and a draw last 4 at home.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in each of their last 11 at home.
  • Only 1 win v top 7 home and away.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Man Utd stats

  • Unbeaten in 25 matches and in 11 away.
  • 3 consecutive away clean sheets.
  • United have not beaten a top 7 side away with a loss and 3 draws, 2 of them were 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Both sides actually struggle v the top teams. It is strange to see Arsenal as the strong favourites given Man Utd are now unbeaten in 25 matches and 11 away.
  • A match for me to leave to the in-play stats.

16:00 - Lyon v Nantes - 1.68 Lyon

  • 4 consecutive head to head clean sheets for Lyon includes a 0-6 win last time these 2 met.
  • This is 4th v 8th in French Ligue 1.
  • 4th place is the best Lyon can get and will guarantee European Club competition.Bordeaux will keep Lyon wanting to win.

Lyon 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • Scored in every home match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5 of 6 scorelines v top 9 at home were a derivative of 2-1 or 3-1.

Lyon other stats

  • 2 consecutive home defeats saw both teams score.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.

Nantes 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Lost all away v top 6 teams.
  • Not beaten the top 5 home or away.
  • Not beaten top 10 away.

Nantes other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 12 matches.
  • Not scored 2 goals v top 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Lyon tend to oblige at home at odds on but lost at 1.28 odds recently at home to Toulouse.
  • Lyon should score today so lay any late 0-0. Lyon avoid draws. Lay any late draw.
  • Those famous last words 'on form' Lyon should be eyeing the win today as Nantes have lost away to all of the top 6 and do not score 2 goals away v top teams so are layable if leading.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:30 - Deportivo v Espanyol - 2.1 Deportivo

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 teams met.
  • This is 16th v 9th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Deportivo are not mathematically safe from relegation but, come on, 8 points ahead with 9 possible points remaining. They would have to disintegrate in order to be relegated now.
  • This is a dead rubber so any really outstanding stats will be noted only.
  • V 5th-15th at home, Deportivo have never conceded more than 1 goal a match.
  • 16 of Depor's 21 goals conceded at home came 1st half.
  • Espanyol haven't scored 2 goals in an away match since 22nd September 2016.
  • This to me has the hallmarks of an under 2.5 goals match. I would consider backing 0-0 pre-match and hope these 2 continue to struggle to score.
  • 1-1 looks an obvious option. All that said, this is a dead rubber and we are assuming both teams are still up for it and not dreaming of their hols on the Costas.

19:45 - AC Milan v Roma - 2.22 Roma

  • 1-0 Roma in the last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 2nd in the Italian Seria A.
  • 4 matches remain this season.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • Only scored 1 goal max v top 2.

AC Milan other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches without winning those matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 matches only this season.
  • 4 wins in 5 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.

Roma 100% stats

  • No draw v top 11 away.

Roma other stats

  • 7 wins in 8 aways.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 draw v top 12 home and away.

Conclusions

  • If AC Milan cannot score a 2nd goal home or away v the top 2, then lay Milan if Milan score first in the hope that Milan won't score the next goal.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Roma should be scoring today. Great recent run of scoring 2 a game adds to the confidence in laying Milan if Milan score first.
  • Lay the late draw.

19:45 - Malaga v Celta Vigo - 1.49 Malaga

  • In the last 5 head to heads, the home team has won.
  • This is 12th v 11th in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • 3 matches remain.
  • Nothing really for these teams to play for. The market has sided with Malaga. Is this because Celta Vigo are more focussed on the Europa League Semi-final?

Malaga

  • 5 wins in 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No draw v top 18 at home.

Celta Vigo

  • 5 defeats in 6 matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 goals scored away v 13th, 14th and 15th.
  • 22 of 31 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 3 factors here - Malaga's superb recent form; Celta poor recent form; Celta Europa League semi-final (in which they are involved).
  • The market tells me that Celta are likely to rest some players and Malaga likely to continue their excellent form. Be with the market today?