It looks like a 17:00 start today over at Twitter drtclub with the conclusions to the groups reached tonight. Note Eng-er-land have already qualified and may field an experimental side (Gareth Southgate to play his Mum up front). In-play stats will determine any play in this dead rubber. Team news required.
Slovakia are in the driving seat in their group with Scotland needing a win to guarantee 2nd spot. It looks a competitive evening so see you at 17:00.
Group C looks all wrapped up so I would tread, and trade, warily with their matches.
17:00 - Denmark v Romania - 1.35 Denmark
- 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
- Group E seems a 3 horse race and Romania are not one of the 3. They are 7 points shy of Denmark who are only 3 points shy of top spot.
- 4 wins in 5 for the Danes, scoring 3 goals at least. That 0-0 with Romania broke the pattern.
- Only 3 home defeats for the Danes in World Cup qualifiers since 1984.
- 2 consecutive 4 goals wins for the Danes.
- Only 2 wins for the Romanias were against Armenia.
- 0-0-0-1-1-0 scored in recent matches recounts their problems.
- 0-0 is in play given the earlier head to head but there is a hope the Danes will score and gain the 3 points to help their qualification. 4 goals v Poland last match was very eyecatching from the Danes. Danes need a win, and for the Poles to lose in order to get 1st spot. Montenegro need a win in the hope of getting 2nd spot off Denmark who must avoid defeat.
17:00 - Kazakhstan v Armenia - 2.62 Kazaks
- Yek Shamesh. No 'Sexy Time' here from Borat's boys who, along with Armenia, will not be qualifying. The market cannot split these teams either. This match is better served via the inplay stats, or not at all.
17:00 - Lithuania v England - 1.35 England
- England are through.
- Lithuania will not be qualifying.
- Lithuania failed to score in 4 of their last 5 qualifiers. England managed a professional 2-0 home win v them.
- Likely we see a win to nil tonight. 0-2 an obvious starting point. But please remember that this is a dead rubber match. England's last 6 away goals were scored 2nd half, so fear not if 0-0 at halftime.
17:00 - Poland v Montenegro - 1.46 Poland
- A similar goal difference to Denmark for the Poles where a win today secures qualification in first spot.
- 1-2 to the Poles last time these 2 met.
- Montenegro proved to be a royal pain on that occasion, 1 1-1 draw settled by a late polish goal.
- Since that match, Montenegro have set themselves up to be tough to beat. 1-0-0-1 goals conceded. The Danes only beat them 0-1 and the market quite fancied Montenegro.
- Montenegro have a glimmer of 2nd spot if Denmark can lose and Montenegro ideally win by 2 (although a Danish loss will impact the Danes goal difference which is +2.
- I do expect a competitive Montenegran side today. 9 goals for the Poles since the shocking loss to Denmark restores faith in that attacking line up.
- Neither side has had a recent draw and really a draw is not good enough for either side in an ideal world so I would look to lay the late draw.
- 3-2-3-3 scored by the Poles at home and they conceded in 3 of 4 of those matches.
- Will the Poles score 2 goals again? If so, lay any Montenegran lead, and lay any late draw as these 2 avoid draws. 8 goals in 4 at home for Lewandowski. We want to see him in the Polish side.
17:00 - Slovakia v Malta - 1.07 Slovakia
- 3 for 2. 3 teams for 2nd spot and Slovakia are one. They must win and hope that Scotland lose. If Slovenia win, and Slovakia win, Slovakia will seal 2nd.
- This looks an easy assignment, bar nerves. 1-3 Slovakia in Malta saw 2 late red cards, one each, and a red card for the Slovaks could be the only spoiler.
- Malta have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches and Slovakia would take a 1-0 today. We have seen short odds favourites not score the expected quota of goals (Portugal last night).
- 2 consecutive losses for the Slovaks must end.
- Malta failed to score in their last 4 aways and conceded at least 2 goals so there is a template for you. A possible 2-0.
17:00 - Slovenia v Scotland -2.76 Scotland
- The market cannot split these 2 sides in a winner-could-take-all. It is a winner-take-all for Scotland who secure 2nd spot with a win tonight regardless of what Slovakia do.
- With Slovakia seeming to have 3 points in the bag, even a draw will not do for the Scots given the goal difference with Slovakia is negligible.
- Slovenia have lost 3 consecutive away matches 1-0 and we profited nicely from the late late show for England.
- 6 consecutive home matches now in World cup qualifiers past and present that the Slovenians have not conceded. 0-0 v England too. Away, we know, they only conceded 80th+ minute goals.
- A very tough evening in store for the Scots.
- Slovenia beat Slovakia 1-0 at home with a 74th minute winner and that I guess will be the template today. They may lose hope though if Slovakia are winning during the match?
- 4 wins in 5 for Scotland under wee Gordon Strachan. All clean sheets in those wins.
- It was an 88th minute Scots winner v Slovenia at home. They would take that tonight.
- I would suggest 0-0 is in play here as the teams will not want to be the first goal conceders. Backing 0-0 pre match means you get the highest odds and a hope the match goes as per expectations. Strictly on form, Slovenia are favoured but you never know with the Scots. 1-0/0-1 looks an obvious outcome.
- These 2 are Maltese fans tonight.
19:45 - Czech Republic v San Marino - 1.01 Czech
- It is a matter of how many tonight. Portugal struggling at 1.04 odds puts me off a correct score punt which I traditionally do with such odds.
- 0-6 to the Czechs the last time these 2 met is a template for tonight. 3 goals minimum expected.
- This is a dead rubber so caution. The Czechs have struggled elsewhere in this group C where Northern Ireland have 2nd spot.
19:45 - Germany v Azerbaijan - 1.07 Germany
- Germany are winners of their group. A 1-3 win over Northern Ireland was a required win for Germany in order to confirm top spot witin the 2 remaining matches.
- This match is hard to predict. Likely we may see team changes and peripheral players for Germany. 1-4 the last time these 2 met.
19:45 - Norway v Northern Ireland - 2.48 Norway
- Northern Ireland are guaranteed 2nd spot. Only Germany has managed to beat Northern Ireland (NI) this campaign.
- Only 1 draw for the NI team came first match.
- Norway look poor, with only wins v San Marino, Azerbaijan and San Marino again. I am not sure that there are any incentives for the collection of points for these 2nd placed sides.
- If there is motivation I cannot see NI, on current form, losing.