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The Curse of the Champions League...the main culprit always seems to be Barcelona. Do check yesterday's list, or go to www.soccerway.com and look at the teams playing in the Champions League on Tuesday and Wednesday. 13:30 looks an ideal starting point for a live chat today. See you at delayreacttrade.com.

11:30 - Sampdoria v Fiorentina - 2.36 Fiorentina

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in head to heads. No wonder the market is so hesitant.
  • This is 9th v 8th in Italian Seria A.

Sampdoria 100% stats

  • All 3 home defeats came v top 7 teams.

Sampdoria other stats

  • Only Juve have beaten them in 9 matches. 3-3-1-3 scored in recent home matches including a win v Roma.
  • Sampdoria tend to bring on Schick in the 2nd half and the sudden turn around begins!
  • Only 7 clean sheets.
  • Have conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • No away win v top 10 teams.
  • No away match with exactly 2 goals.

Fiorentina other stats

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins and a 0-0 makes for a tight defence recently.
  • 0-1-0-1- scored away recently.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • Recent Fiorentina performances are a master class in Tony Pulis-like scorelines but contextually, Fiorentina have not beaten a top 10 side away from home.
  • If we go strictly on form, I can see Fiorentina not win today (1-1 is possible if Samp cannot find that 2nd goal).
  • Most likely form winner is Sampdoria with 2/3 goals.
  • I would not lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - Zwolle v Feyenoord - 1.57 Feyenoord

  • 3-0 Feyenoord in the last head to head.
  • This is 12th v 1st in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Zwolle 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 3 this season.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side home or away.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Zwolle other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 win home and away v teams above them in the league.
  • 14 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Feyenoord 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 2nd - 14th inclusive home and away.
  • No 0-0.

Feyenoord other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Lost 2 of their last 3 away.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • No draw in 15 matches.
  • 17 of 26 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 7 of 9 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • Zwolle have only 1 win v teams above them in the league. They have lost to all of the top 3 and tend to concede 3 goals. Feyenoord have been faltering away of late but have an unbeaten record home and away v teams 2nd-14th inclusive.
  • If Feyenoord continue to avoid the draw, I see only one outcome. An away win. It could be tight 0-2 or 1-2. Zwolle are scoring and conceding with regularity so must be opposed if leading.

13:30 - Sunderland v Man Utd - 1.4 Man Utd

  • Meeting of the ex-manager.
  • 2-1 Sunderland last home head to head but 3-1 United last head to head.
  • This is 20th v 6th in the Premiership.

Sunderland 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 9 side home or away.

Sunderland other stats

  • Failed to score in 8 of their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 home matches.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Man Utd 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside the top 10 home and away.
  • All wins v bottom 3 saw both teams score and United score 2 or 3 goals.

Man Utd other stats

  • 2-2-2-1-3-3 scored in recent away matches. Score 2 and they win it seems.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 20 matches.
  • All wins v 13th and lower away, scoring 3-2-2-1-3-3 goals.

Conclusions

  • It's tried and tested but it falls flat! Moyes will aim for a 0-0 at halftime and a 1-0 fulltime. If United do not score by halftime, they could score 2 or 3 by fulltime. Sunderland v Leicester. 0-0 halftime 2-0 Leicester fulltime. So think along those lines.
  • United tend to score 2/3 goals v these strugglers and with consistency.

14:00 - AC Milan v Palermo - 1.29 AC Milan

  • 1-2 Milan earlier this season.
  • This is 7th v 19th in Italian Seria A.
  • Palermo are doomed. AC Milan have a top 5 place in their sights.

AC Milan 100% stats

  • All home wins v 13th and lower.

AC Milan other stats

  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 was away to Juventus.
  • No home draw v teams below them in the league sees 8 wins and 2 0-1 defeats.

Palermo 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Scored one goal exactly in all away matches v top 15.

Palermo other stats

  • 6 losses and a draw last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 9.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 15.
  • 24 of 34 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Looks clearcut for Milan. Palermo may get their usual 1 goal but little else. With Milan all the way today.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If 0-0 halftime, fear not the goals tend to come 2nd half in Palermo matches.

14:00 - Crotone v Inter - 1.36 Inter

  • 3-0 Inter in the last head to head.
  • This is 18th v 6th in Italian Seria A.

Crotone 100% stats

  • Crotone can escape relegation but will need to pull out some wins.
  • Not beaten a top 10 team home or away.
  • Not scored 2 goals in a home match v top 10 teams.

Crotone other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 0-0-1-0-0 scored in their last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in 10 of their last 14 matches.
  • Won their last match.

Inter Milan 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All wins away v 12th and lower.
  • Not conceded 2 goals home or away v 15th and lower.

Inter Milan other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • If Crotone cannot score a 2nd goal, then they must win 1-0. The problem is that they play an Inter who tend to win v 12th and lower away from home.
  • Crotone need points and this is the time of the year where surprises can occur out of desparation. All I can do is report my expectations based on form and those are for an Inter win.
  • It might be a tight old encounter.

14:00 - Udinese v Genoa - 1.84 Udinese

  • Both teams scored and conceded in their last 6 head to heads. 1-1, 1-1, 2-1 Genoa and 1-1 the last 4 head to heads.
  • This is 12th v 16th in Italian Seria A.

Udinese 100% stats

  • All wins v bottom 4 teams at home and play 5th bottom today.
  • No home 0-0s.

Udinese other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets sees both teams score last 4 matches (Udinese unbeaten in those).
  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches v bottom 5 teams.

Genoa 100% stats

  • Not led at halftime away.
  • Not beaten a top 13 side away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Genoa other stats

  • Only 1 win in 14 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • 10 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form Genoa have shown that they cannot beat a top 13 side away from home. Udinese hint at winning v the bottom 4 (can that extend to 5th bottom?).
  • On form I am with Udinese not to lose today. That will be my angle.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

14:00 - Bologna v Roma - 1.45 Roma

  • 3-0 Roma in the most recent head to head.
  • This is 14th v 2nd in the Italian Seria A.

Bologna 100% stats

  • All defeats at home v top 8 scoring in only 1 of the matches.
  • Not beaten a top 8 side home or away.

Bologna other stats

  • 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • Conceded 3 goals at least home and away v top 3.

Roma 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.

Roma other stats

  • Only 2 draws.
  • 14 wins in 17 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime last 9 matches.
  • No draw in 19 matches.

Conclusions

  • Bologna should not be winning here. Heck they have trouble even scoring v the big boys at home. Roma should be eyeing a win and have no Champions League distractions.
  • A simple angle. Expect a Roma win. React if anything else.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

14:30 - Hertha Berlin v Augsburg - 1.86 Hertha

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 16th in the German Bundesliga.

Hertha Berlin 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • All home wins v 12th and lower.
  • No draw at home v 3rd and lower.
  • No over 4.5 goals at home.

Hertha Berlin other stats

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • 4 wins, a draw and a loss lost 5 home matches.
  • 10 wins and a loss at home v 4th and lower.

Augsburg 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 8 team home or away.

Augsburg other stats

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • Conceded last 12 matches.

Conclusions

  • Ultra consistent at form, Hertha should be winning today scoring at least 2 goals. The market is a little cautious given the 4 losses in 5 matches. Their opponents though have not beaten a top 8 side so really Hertha should be targeting this one for a win.
  • Lay Augsburg if they score first.

15:45 - PSV v Willem II - 1.19 PSV

  • 0-0 last head to head should really end today.
  • This is 3rd v 11th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

PSV 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Only beaten by 1st in the league.

PSV other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • Scored last 11 at home.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Willem II 100% stats

  • No draw away v top 9.

Willem II other stats

  • Only 4 wins in 12 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Beat Ajax away.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A 2-2 draw with Twente when strong favourites was not in the script for PSV. They need a win today and the market thinks they will score 3/4 goals today.
  • They have a great record at home bar 1st in the league and should really win to continue their 8 match win record.
  • Willem did beat Ajax away but I think PSV should simply outscore them. If 0-0 at halftime (and it could be), expect 2nd half goals.

16:00 - Everton v Leicester - 1.77 Everton

  • 1-2 Leicester the last time these 2 met in the FA Cup 0-2 Everton in the Premiership.
  • This is 7th v 10th in the Premiership.

Everton 100% stats

  • A top 5 berth is available. Top 4? Might be a stretch.
  • Unbeaten at home outside of the top 3.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No home 0-0.

Everton other stats

  • 6 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals.
  • 16 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Leicester  stats

  • As the boy in Henry V said “I would give all my fame for a pot of ale, and safety”. Indeed Mr. Shakespeare has taken that onboard and all but ensured safety for Leicester.
  • 5 matches managed by the Great Bard and 5 wins, scoring 3-3-3-2-2.
  • It is only under Shakespeare's tutelage that we should focus.

Conclusions

  • Leicester are 3 points shy of safety. I am not as ready as the market to dismiss this Leicester side but acknowledge that Everton are unbeaten outside of the top 3 and have scored in all of those home matches.
  • Everton tend to score 2 goals in recent home matches. IF Leicester turn up as per the last 5 matches, 3-2/2-3 are workable scorelines to trade.

16:00 - St Etienne v Nantes - 2.14 St E

  • 0-0 last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 9th in French Ligue 1 - 3 points from a top 5 spot and 10 from a top 4 spot.

St Etienne 100% stats

  • Not conceded 2 goals at home v top 13 teams.

St Etienne other stats

  • Only 2 home defeats.
  • 73% of home halftime scorelines 0-0 or 0-1 so St Etienne score 2nd half.
  • 14 of their 20 goals at home came 2nd half.

Nantes 100% stats

  • All defeats away v top 8 teams.
  • No 0-0 away.

Nantes other stats

  • 2-4-2 conceded last 3 away matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded last 11 matches.

Conclusions

  • St Etienne show a pattern at home of tending to concede first half but regaining parity 2nd half. Look at the 73% 0-0 or 0-1 at halftime at home. I will enter this match hoping for a 0-1 at halftime.
  • Nantes are leaking goals of late which will help our cause if they lead at any stage.

16:30 - Ingolstadt v SV Darmstadt - 1.55 Ingolstadt

  • No exhaustive research here. 0-1 Ingolstadt in the last head to head. These are the bottom 2. Ingolstadt have a reasonable shot of staving off relegation, Darmstadt do not.
  • 2 consecutive wins for Ingolstadt. Only 3 clean sheets though for Ingolstadt.
  • Ingolstadt failed to score in only 1 home match.
  • Darmstadt have lost every away match.
  • Halftime away scorelines have been mostly 0-0 or 1-0.
  • 1-0, 2-1 1-0 defeats away v 13th and lower.
  • 24 of 31 goals conceded away by Darmstadt 2nd half.
  • Note the tight defeats for Darmstadt. Market expectation is for their losing run to continue. They concede heavily 2nd half so if 0-0 at halftime keep the faith and expect a 2nd half concession.

20:00 - Paris St-G v Guingamp - 1.16 PSG

  • 0-2 PSG and 2-1 Guingamp in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 2nd v 8th in the French Ligue 1.

Paris St G 100% stats

  • 3 points behind Monaco so this is a must-win and the market has made its mind up already.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • 5 draws at home v top 10 teams so vulnerable.

Paris St G other stats

  • 10 wins and 2 draws in their last 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.

Guingamp 100% stats

  • Conceded 2+ away v top 3.
  • No 0-0.

Guingamp other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • 5 losses in 6 away matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 14 away.
  • Only 1 win away v top 17.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The market expect 3/4 goals minimum from PSG in this must-win for them. Guingamp did beat Lyon away so have something to them but they have lost in 5 of their last 6 away matches.
  • Guingamp have no win in 10 so since that Lyon win, they have not duplicated that.
  • I tend to look at 1.16 odds matches via the correct score. A 0-0 for a while and I look to back 3-0, 3-1 and any other home score.