Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/8621301864514191627 is the link to today's live chat webinar. 13:45 kick off. 5 consecutively profitable live chat webinars now. I am happy with this consistency and only hope it will continue.
www.flashscore.com has the Dutch Eredivisie as postponed so I halted research. If www.flashscore.com are wrong, then I'll research while the matches are in-play.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

14:00 - Sheff Utd v Bournemouth - 1.77 Sheff Utd

  • Match outcome: Bournemouth have lost 7/8 away matches against top-six teams and they have lost by two or more goals in 6/8 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 6/11 Sheffield Utd home matches.

Sheff Utd - 6th

  • 1 loss in 4 matches.
  • Last 4 home losses saw them fail to score.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches at halftime.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 6 0-0 at halftime at home and none at fulltime.
  • 1-1 draw last head to head.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 14th and lower.

Bournemouth - 16th

  • 2 consecutive home wins right in the nick of time to save a season that was Championship-bound.
  • 6 losses in 7 matches away.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score last 3 away.
  • Wins away v 4th, 13th and 17th.

Conclusions

  • Clearly Bournemouth are in a better place with 2 consecutive home wins but they have 6 losses in 7 away and meet a tough to beat Sheff Utd who tend to lose at home when not scoring.
  • Given Bournemouth's 2nd wind, I cannot readily dismiss them, albeit this is away.
  • Note Sheff Utd 6 0-0 at halftime at home and none at fulltime.

16:30 - Man City v West Ham - 1.12 Man City

  • Match outcome: Man City have won 16/20 home matches while West Ham have conceded first in 7/11 away matches against top-six teams. West Ham have drawn the first half in 6/9 away matches against top-six teams.
  • New manager syndrome for West Ham tempers enthusiasm.
  • No win in 5 for West Ham suggests I cannot get that David Moyes angle in just yet.
  • 4-2-3 goals conceded recently is a worry v Man City.
  • Man City have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 4 home matches.
  • Wins to nil at home v 15th and lower for City (West Ham are 18th).
  • Angles? 1.12 suggests a goal before halftime. Back Man City 1-0, 2-0, any unquoted in the halftime score market if 0-0 after 20 minutes. It came good on 2 occasions last weekend.
  • 1.12 odds suggests 3+ goals as well. Do remember West Ham may surprise, not too sure though but Moyes may flood that defence.

SPANISH LA LIGA

11am - Espanyol v Mallorca - 1.67 Espanyol

  • 1st goal: Espanyol have scored first in 7/9 home matches against bottom-six teams while Mallorca have lost 9/10 away matches. Mallorca have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches.

Espanyol - 20th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 4 draws in 5 matches at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 16 consecutive matches without 0-0 at halftime.
  • No win 11 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 at home.

Mallorca - 17th

  • Only 1 win in 9 came at home.
  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • 2-2 v 2nd bottom away and beat Espanyol 2-0 at home last head to head.

Conclusions

  • Bottom 3 teams may not be reliable. Mallorca tend to concede first away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Espanyol. But Mallorca have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Mallorca have scored 2 goals in 2 matches v the bottom 2.

13:00 - Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao - 2.14 Sociedad

  • 1st goal: Real Sociedad have scored first in 10/11 home matches against middle-third teams while Ath. Bilbao have lost 7/10 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams. Ath. Bilbao have conceded first in 12/19 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams.

Sociedad - 8th

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 at home.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 win home and away v the top 9. 2-0 loss to Bilbao last head to head.

Athletic Bilbao - 9th

  • 5 draws and a loss last 6 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away draws.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Great midweek win for Sociedad in the cup v Real Madrid. Note the over 2.5 goals trend for both teams.
  • I can make as equally a bad argument for both sides so in-play stats for me.

15:00 - Osasuna v Real Madrid - 1.54 Real Madrid

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 6/10 Osasuna home matches and in 16/18 Real Madrid away matches against middle-third teams. Real Madrid have scored first in 6/9 away matches against middle-third teams.

Osasuna - 11th

  • Only 6 wins.
  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 0-0 and 2-0 win last 2 home matches.
  • 2-2 v 2nd , 1-1 v 4th, 3-1 v 5th and 2-1 v 7th at home.
  • 2-0 loss v Real Madrid last time these 2 met.
  • 7 goals scored last 15 minutes of home matches.

Real Madrid - 1st

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime in their last 7 matches.
  • 55% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not played 5th-13th away.

Conclusions

  • There is a gap in form with Real Madrid away v 5th-13th but they are in such reliable form that I expect them to oblige today, or at least not lose (I note the Osasuna draws v 2nd and 4th).
  • Real Madrid are likely to be tough to score against, 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.

17:30 - Celta Vigo v Sevilla - 2.26 Sevilla

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Celta Vigo home matches against top-six teams and in 9/13 Sevilla away matches. Celta Vigo have drawn the first half in 6/8 home matches against top-six teams.

Celta Vigo - 19th

  • Only 3 wins.
  • 3 draws and a loss last 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home draws.
  • No win in 6 at home.
  • 55% 0-0's at halftime at home, none at fulltime.
  • 1-1 last head to head.
  • 2 wins at home were 1-0.
  • 5/7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 7/11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

FC Sevilla - 4th

  • Only 5 defeats.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 6 away.
  • Only 2 defeats home and away v 3rd and lower.
  • 4 clean sheet wins away v 14th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins plays only 5 defeats. Sevilla are unlikely to lose outside of the top 3! I must be with the away side on form.
  • Note the 2nd half goals stats for Celta Vigo if it is a tight first half.

20:00 - Betis v Barcelona - 1.84 Barcelona

  • Asian handicap: Real Betis have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against Big Two teams while Barcelona have won by two or more goals in 11/20 trips to middle-third teams. Real Betis have lost 6/8 home matches against Big Two teams.

Betis - 12th

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches came v Atl Madrid and Getafe.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 6 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 home matches.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 27% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5-2 loss v Barcelona last time these 2 met.
  • 1-1 at home v 3rd and 1-2 loss at home v 4th.
  • Scored and conceded all bar 1 at home.

Barcelona - 2nd

  • New manager so let's look only at his matches. 1-0 home win v Granada (after a red card), 2-0 loss away v Valencia after beating them as convincingly as they beat Betis. 2-1 home win v Levante saw a comfortable 2-0 lead cut back with a 90th minute winner.
  • Suarez is injured as well and we saw Fati (named after me!) step up with the 2 goals v Levante recently.

Conclusions

  • Still a watching brief with Barcelona under a new manager who is limping by. A shock away loss v Valencia latest should have seen his tenure ended. Barcelona have conceded 2 goals in 2 consecutive away matches. I will monitor the in-play stats. Suarez is absent for Barcelona. As to Betis? Well they have scored in their last 11 home matches. They have scored and conceded at home v the top 4 without winning. A pattern to continue or are Barcelona still a tad unreadable under new management?

ITALIAN SERIA A

11:30 - Spal v Sassuolo - 2.64 Sassuolo

  • 1st goal: SPAL 1907 have scored first in 9/12 home matches against middle-third teams while Sassuolo have conceded first in 6/9 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/13 Sassuolo away matches.
  • 2.64 the favourite. I will look at the neutral angle in the DRT Facebook video.

14:00 - Napoli v Lecce - 1.23 Napoli

  • Match outcome: Napoli have won 14/17 home matches against bottom-six teams while Lecce have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 8/11 Lecce away matches.

Napoli - 11th

  • After 3 losses, 2 consecutive wins now for Genari Gattuso v Juventus and Sampdoria. Only 7 matches into his reign. Loss Loss Loss at home ended with a win v Juventus.
  • And that's where it ends for the Napoli research.

Lecce - 17th

  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches came v Fiorentina and Torino.
  • Lecce have not beaten top 11 sides home or away.

Conclusions

  • I have to limit research on newly managed sides. If Napoli retain their recent form (2 consecutive wins, including Juventus) then the win looks obvious given Lecce are yet to beat a top 11 side.

14:00 - Genoa v Cagliari - 2.44 Genoa

  • 1st half outcome: Genoa have drawn the first half in 13/20 home matches while Cagliari have drawn 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 5/8 Cagliari away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • You know the drill with this match and the one below. I will look at a neutral angle via the DRT Facebook video.

14:00 - Brescia v Udinese - 2.74 Udinese

  • Match outcome: Brescia have lost 8/11 home matches while Udinese have scored first in 10/13 away matches against bottom-six teams. Udinese have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

17:00 - Parma v Lazio - 1.78 Lazio

  • Match outcome: Parma have lost 5/7 home matches against top-six teams while Lazio have scored first in 11/19 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/13 Lazio away matches.

Parma - 9th

  • 2 losses in 8 matches came away from home.
  • A draw and 2 wins at home.
  • 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • 45% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats bar 1 came home and away v the top 10.
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.

Lazio - 3rd

  • Unbeaten in 17 matches and 7 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 7 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% wins v 8th-19th home and away.
  • 5 1-2 wins away v those teams above.
  • 8/10 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • If Lazio's patterns v 8th-19th continues today, even if they concede, they'll win 1-2! Easy right?
  • Verona did show sides how to keep Lazio out, will Parma have learnt and applied? 6 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches suggests some defensive nose.
  • I could foresee Lazio remaining unbeaten today. Parma have a noticeably poor record v the top 10.

19:45 - Inter v AC Milan - 2.04 Inter

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/11 Inter Milan home matches against top-half teams and in 9/15 AC Milan away matches. AC Milan have scored first in 8/13 away matches.
  • A Milan derby and a newly managered AC Milan tempers pre-match research.
  • Put into context, with Juventus losing yesterday, Inter can reach Juventus on points with a win today and go joint top (goal difference notwithstanding).
  • Inter have only lost to Juventus this season. 3 1-1 draws ended with a win last match.
  • 3 wins and a draw for AC Milan sees their new manager impact positively. 4 clean sheets in 7 matches suggests where this manager is fixating.
  • As ever with derby matches, I am reluctant to go with any one side as it is usually 'best on the day'. Remember both of these sides are playing at home! AC Milan are coming to the boil, Inter have ended a 1-1 sequence and have the carrot of equallying 1st placed Juventus on points.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

14:30 - Mgladbach v FC Koln - 1.74 Mgladbach

  • Asian handicap: B. M'gladbach have won by two or more goals in 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams while FC Koln have lost by two or more goals in 6/10 away matches. B. M'gladbach have won 10/10 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Mgladbach - 4th

  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.
  • 2+ goals scored in those 8 wins.
  • All wins at home v 8th and lower, scoring 3+ goals in 5 of those wins.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

FC Koln - 13th

  • 5 wins and a loss v Dortmund recently.
  • Conceded last 10 away matches.
  • 100% defeats v the top 4.
  • 8/11 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We cannot discount form sides (see Verona yesterday) and FC Koln are in form but have a 100% loss record v the top 4, one of which they meet today, an Mgladbach with 8 consecutive wins. The market pays respect to FC Koln but if Mgladbach can score 2 goals again, then that could be enough.

17:00 - Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig - 1.47 Bayern Munich

  • Match outcome: Bayern have won 11/12 home matches against top-six teams and they have had W/W double results in 11/13 such matches. RB Leipzig have conceded first in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • The winner goes top today! A top 2 clash can be tough to call. Leipzig conceded 3 goals v Dortmund, and 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches. With Bayern scoring 6-3-2-4-5-3 goals recently, Leipzig's generous defence may see them at the wrong end of a result today. I think Mgladbach were red carded in the 2-2 so for me Leipzig are having trouble scoring in their last 2 matches under normal circumstances.
  • I am with the market but note the context of the match (winner goes top) and top 2 clash. Clearly Bayern are the form side and the best goal scoring side.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

11:15 - FC Utrecht v Ajax - 1.7 Ajax

  • Match outcome: Ajax have won 14/20 away matches against top half non-Big Two teams and they have won by two or more goals in 8/14 away matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 10/12 Utrecht home matches.

FC Utrecht - 7th

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches came v Feyenoord.
  • 3 losses at home ended with a win at home.
  • No draw in 10 matches at home.
  • Losses at home v 2nd and 3rd.
  • 4-0 loss last head to head.
  • 17 of 23 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Ajax - 1st

  • 2 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 2 matches (lost).
  • Conceded last 5 away.
  • Not beaten the top 8 away.

Conclusions

  • No gimme this match for a faltering Ajax with 2 consecutive away defeats and an inability to beat the top 8 away.....yet.
  • Lay any late draw if Utrecht keep avoiding the draw. Utrecht did lose to 2nd and 3rd at home. Enough to think even a faltering Ajax may not lose today?
  • Utrecht are strong 2nd half scorers.

13:30 - Sparta Rotterdam v ADO Den Haag - 1.86 Sparta Rotterdam

  • Match outcome: Sparta R'dam have won 5/10 home matches while Den Haag have lost by two or more goals in 5/8 trips to middle-third teams. Den Haag have had L/L double results in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams.

Sparta - 11th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 came at home.
  • Unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 win last head to head.
  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower.
  • 4 goals scored in wins at home v the bottom 2.

ADO Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 7 losses in 8 away matches.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 1 v the top 15.

Conclusions

  • Sparta are favoured here on seasonal form. 4 goals scored in 2 matches v the bottom 2 at home and ADO conceding 2+ goals in defeats v the top 15 away.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

13:30 - AZ Alkmaar v Feyenoord - 1.76 AZ Alkmaar

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 13/20 AZ Alkmaar home matches and in 10/14 Feyenoord away matches. Feyenoord have scored first in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.

AZ Alkmaar

  • I will end the research here. Apparently these matches as postponed, so says flashscore.com. If www.flashscore.com are wrong, I can always research at the time of kick off.

15:45 - Emmen v FC Twente - 2.24 Emmen

  • 1st goal: Emmen have scored first in 6/9 home matches against middle-third teams while Twente have conceded first in 6/10 away matches. Twente have lost 5/10 away matches.