Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

We see some 'Old reliables' on the coupon today, such as FC Basel, HJK and even Guangzhou FC. They should dominate their matches and we should react if they falter. I will pass on any good trades @drtclub but will not be on Twitter at any specific time. Twitter does allow alerts on a mobile device. Rather than slavishly monitoring Twitter, set yourself up with alerts. There are plenty of tutorials via Google.

CHINESE SUPER LEAGUE

12:35 - Liaoning Whowin v Guangzhou FC - 1.32 Guangzhou

  • Liaoning tend to take a beating when meeting Guangzhou. In answer to their question 'Whowin', it's Guangzhou mate!
  • This is 14th v 1st in the Chinese Super League.
  • Match outcome: Liaoning have lost 12/19 home matches against top-six teams while Guangzhou have won 10/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • Guangzhou have had win/win double results in 7/10 away matches against bottom-six teams.
  • No need for indepth research here. Guangzhou do their losing away v top 7 sides exclusively. They have beaten all sides 8th and lower home and away and only failed to score 2 or more goals once.
  • Liaoning has lost every match home and away v top 7 sides and conceded 4-2-3-4 goals v top 7.
  • We expect 2+ goals from the away side today.

12:35 - Hebei CFFC v Shanghai East Asia - 2.34 Shanghai

  • Shanghai has won the last 3 head to heads scoring 2 goals minimum.
  • This is 6th v 2nd in the Chinese Super League.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Hebei CFFC home matches against top-six teams while Shanghai SIPG have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against top-six teams.
  • There have been -1.5 goals in 4/8 Hebei CFFC home matches against top-six teams.

Hebei

  • Only 6 defeats but 5 of them have come within the last 7 matches.
  • No win in 3 at home sees 2 defeats.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Not played the top 3 at home yet.1-0 and 0-0 v 4th and 5th at home.

Shanghai

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 of which came within the last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only once, in their last match.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of 10 away.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side away - did have 3 1-1 draws.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I would back 1-1 in this match as a trading vehicle and trade out if we see yet another 1-1 from Shanghai away v top 10. They have a strong both teams to score pattern.

12:35 - Tianjin Quanjian v Beijing Guoan - 2.14 Tianjin

  • 1-1 last head to heads.
  • This is 4thv 7th in the Chinese Super League.
  • Match outcome: TJ Quanjian have won 6/9 home matches while Beijing Guo'an have conceded first in 6/10 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Beijing Guo'an have drawn the first half in 12/19 away matches.

Tianjin

  • Excellent recent form. Only 1 loss in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home wins and scored in their last 9 at home.
  • Not met 5th-9th at home yet.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Beijing

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches, scoring 2 goals in each of those 5 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Not beaten top 10 away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Strictly on form I would be with Tianjin today. Beijing's recent solid form needs a context. They have not beaten any top 10 side away from home so their 4 wins and a draw recently obviously did not occur away to top 10.
  • Lay any Beijing lead and hope that Tianjin maintain their excellent recent form.

SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN

16:00 - IFK Goteborg v AIK - 2.64 AIK

  • 4 wins and a 3-3 draws favours IFK in head to heads. The market though cannot pick a favourite.
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 IFK Goteborg home matches against top-six teams and -1.5 goals in 6/10 IFK Goteborg such matches.
  • AIK Solna have won 7/8 away matches against bottom-six teams.

IFK

  • An overwhelming preponderance of draws sees IFK struggling despite not losing too many.
  • 6 draws in 8 at home.
  • Only 4 clean sheets all season.
  • They have scored in all home matches.
  • All home draws were score draws and IFK remains unbeaten at home.

AIK

  • Only 4 defeats and only 1 away defeat.
  • 5 wins in 6 away matches.
  • Failed to score only once away.
  • 6 wins, a 0-0 and a 2-1 loss v 12th away from home.

Conclusions

  • I would have to lay IFK if IFK were to score first here, not because they could lose, but because they are more likely to score draw.
  • That is my prevailing angle here.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

19:45 - Bury v Sunderland - 2.16 Sunderland

  • League One v the Championship (latterly the Premiership).
  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches in the League Cup. Both teams have scored in each of the last 9 league cup matches.
  • Bury has not drawn a home league cup match in their last 9.
  • I am sure Sunderland has bigger fish to fry. We may see a weakened team out. Recent losses in the competition have come exclusively against Premiership teams.
  • On that basis, and the presumption Sunderland will continue in that vein, they should be favourites today not to lose at least.
  • With Bury's both teams to score record, we should look to lay Bury if Bury scores first.

SWISS SUPER LEAGUE

19:00 - FC Basel v Grasshoppers Zurich - 1.25 Basel

  • Basel tends to win head to heads, and in 2 of the last 4 head to heads, won 3-1.
  • Match outcome: Basel have won 14/19 home matches while Grasshopper have had L/L double results in 8/13 away matches against top-half teams.
  • Grasshopper have lost 8/13 away matches against top-half teams.
  • The league is only 3 matches old. I do, however, like following FC Basel. They tend to be ultra reliable, particularly if they concede first. They have scored 3 goals in each of 2 matches this season.
  • Grasshoppers lost at home to Young Boys and FC Zurich which suggests they will struggle on their travels.
  • Rely on FC Basel should they be Fawlty today. Expectation is for FC Basel to score 2/3 goals minimum today, so any 0-1 or 0-0 is anomolous.

19:00 - FC Zurich v Sion - 1.81 FC Zurich

  • 0-3 Zurich and 2-2 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Zurich are unbeaten this season with 2 wins and a 0-0.
  • Sion won their first 2 away matches 0-1 and lost their 3rd away match 2-0.
  • I am only really interested in FC Basel today. I cannot get a handle on these 2 teams. What I will say is that the in-play stats are very accurate for Switzerland so use them if you want to engineer a trading angle into this match.

FINNISH VEIKKAUSLIIGA

18:00 - SJK v HJK - 1.92 HJK

  • 0-0 and 6-0 HJK in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

SJK

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in the last 5 matches.
  • 3 consecutive 1-0 scorelines at home, 2 were wins.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only scored a maximum of 1 goal at home v top 9 teams.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Only conceded 2 goals once this season and lost that match.
  • 11 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 win away v top 8 sees 4 draws - that could be why a team winning 6-0 last time out are only 1.92 shots today.

Conclusions

  • If HJK consistently do not concede that 2nd goal, then we must look at laying SJK if SJK score first, despite their recent 1-0 wins at home signalling some defensive strength.
  • HJK are clearly more vulnerable away from home but still they should not be losing this match.
  • There has not been a 0-0 at home in an SJK match so lay the late 0-0.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMERA LIGA

21:00 - Vitoria Guimaraes  v Chaves - 1.82 Guimaraes

  • 3-1 Chaves and 2-3 Guimaraes in the last 2 head to heads. That clears that up then!!
  • Guimaraes has won by two or more goals in 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams while Chaves has lost the first half in 5/7 away matches against top-six teams.
  • Chaves have lost 5/7 away matches against top-six teams.
  • I will repeat that in Portugal I tend to focus on Sporting Lisbon, Benfica and Porto and at a push Braga. These teams tend to be reliable. The head to heads for this match suggests the Chavs from Chaves have goals in them?