Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Delighted with some of the tennis calls. I am not going full blast @drtclub Twitter. I will up the coverage once the big guns show their faces on grass. The highlight yesterday was my argument to lay the mighty Roger Federer at 1.08, He lost the match. My conclusion? Ring rustiness; German opponent in Germany. It all conspired to get him beaten. Tennis dominates today and I will try my best to follow all matches researched @drtclub Twitter.

16:30 - HJK v JJK - 1.13 HJK

  • HJK has scored 5 goals in their last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 12th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HJK stats

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 4 wins to nil and a 1-1 draw in their last 5 home matches.
  • All wins at halftime at home.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Only 1 goal conceded at home.

JJK stats

  • Only 1 win.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Not played the top 4 away.
  • Conceded 5 goals away v 5th.

Conclusions

  • HJK should be scoring 4 goals at least today. JJK may score but be limited to a single goal.
  • HJK should really be winning at halftime too.
  • Straightforward angles here. HJK to lead halftime, score 4+ goals.

TENNIS

I cannot provide times for the tennis. They are fluid and based on weather and other factors. So keep an eye out for a start and for me @drtclub Twitter.

ATP Stuttgart

Jeremy Chardy v Feliciano Lopez - 1.55 Lopez

  • 70th v 40th.
  • A Chardy walkover in the 2017 head to head.
  • Chardy has been plying his clay trade in Challenger events prior to losing to Nishikori in the French Open.
  • It's a who's who of the great and the good who have beaten Lopez recently - Cilic; Ferrer; Djokovic; Andy Murray; Zverev.
  • Lopez on grass has tended to win when favourite. I would favour him today. I would definitely lay Chardy should Chardy win the first set.

Tommy Haas v Mischa Zverev - 1.7 Zverev

  • 459th v 35th.
  • 2 Germans meet in Germany so expect an improved performance from the lower ranked player who beat Federer yesterday!!
  • 2 3 set matches for Haas. He is unlikely to be winning 2-0 if he wins the first set.
  • Not the best form from Zverev last year on grass.
  • This is Haas's last Hurrah so I may consider laying the first set winner, keener to lay Haas than Zverev.

Tomas Berdych v Bernard Tomic - 1.42 Tomas

  • 13th v 41st. Surprised to see Tomic at a relatively low ranking given he is generally very inconsistent.
  • 4-0 Berdych head to heads.
  • A shock loss in the French Open for Berdych.
  • Berdych was a semi finalist in Wimbledon last year so obviously is an accomplished grass player.
  • Tomic at 1.17 odds lost 2nd set yesterday so is vulnerable even when overwhelming favourite.
  • For me there is a question mark over Berdych following that shock in the French Open after reaching the Final in Lyon.
  • He really should be beating Tomic but may do it in 3 sets. Berdych has had a habit of struggling 2nd set so perhaps lay the first set winner here.

Jerzy Janowicz v Grigor Dimitrov - 1.32 Grigor

  • 165th v 12th.
  • Last 2 head to heads Dimitrov has been shorter odds and won in 2 and 3 sets.
  • He lost the first set last head to head. So a hope that he loses the first set today as he is obviously capable v Jerzy
  • Jerzy is generally a Challenger tour player.
  • Unspectacular clay season for Dimitrov.
  • I am unconvinced with his Grass credentials based on last year. Out first round in Stuttgart, out first round in Queens and lasted 3 matches Wimbledon, losing a 5 setter to Steve Johnson.
  • I remain convinced if Jerzy wins first set, Dimi can fight back.

Benoit Paire v Peter Gojowczyk - 1.79 Benoit

  • 49th v 139th.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • Not a match I have a strong opinion on. I will bow out of this one.

RICOH OPEN

Ivo Karlovic  v Stefan Kozlov - 1.29 Ivo

  • 22nd v 147th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Big Ivo's serve tends to get sussed out by better ranked players but his serve tends to serve hime well v worse ranked players.
  • 2 tie breaker losses for Ivo in the French Open betrays his Achilles Heel. A reliance on tie breakers can open up a set loss in said tie breaker.
  • On grass last year, Ivo tended to win when favourite. There was only one exception.
  • 2 3 set grass matches so far for Kozlov tells us to lay him should he break this Ivo serve and win the first set, or win the first set via a tie breaker.

Bedene v Gilles Muller - 1.4 Muller

  • 68th v 28th.
  • Muller won the sole head to head in 2015.
  • both players have won a set in Bedene's 3 of the last 4 matches.
  • Poor form for Bedene last year on grass.
  • Muller has lost recently to Berdych, Murray, Busta, Raonic and Garcia-Lopez  who was a 115th ranked player.
  • Last year Muller was excellent on grass - final in Germany, quarters at Queens, semis in Nottingham, final at Newport but only 2 rounds at Wimbledon.
  • I like Muller's grass court form from last year. It suggests a player at peace on grass and enough to side with the market here and back Gilles if his odds rise significantly.

Julien Benneteau v Alexander Zverev - 1.11 Zverev

  • 106th v 21st.
  • German Zverev must be favoured here. Not sure the odds are accurate as I am researching the night before and some tennis markets are illiquid.
  • Solid clay form for our Alex. How did he get on , on grass, last year?
  • Finalist at Halle and round of 32 at Wimbledon for Alex.
  • Benneteau has a habit of not lasting long in ATP events.
  • I have to side with Zverev and just hope his odds rise at some point so I can back him at value odds.

Anett Kontaveit v Carina Witthoeft - 1.44 Kont

  • 73rd v 69th so tight rankings.
  • 2 3 setters for Anett so far on grass. 3 setter and 2 setter (first set a tie breaker) for Carina. This suggests that this match might not be a stroll in the park for Carina.
  • Kontaveit had an excellent clay season outside of the Grand Slam.
  • The Grass form from last year is unappealing for both players. I would put my faith in the rankings and Anett's apparent competitiveness in grass court matches. I would like to lay Carina if Carina wins the first set. Why? I'll get shorter odds. I must acknowledge that the market has strongly sided with Carina. I am not sure why. Anett showed in the clay season that she is a decent player.

Marin Cilic v Janko Tipsarevic - 1.2 Cilic

  • 8th v 71st.
  • 7-2 head to heads for Cilic.
  • Most recent head to head was grass at Queens last year, an easy straight set Cilic win.
  • Quarters, Final, round of 32, quarters, quarters for Cilic. He had a relatively good clay season.
  • In Stuttgart last year, Cilic lasted only one match. He did though reach the semi finals at Queens and the Quarter finals at Wimbledon.
  • Tipsarevic has largely been plying his trade in Challenger tour events.
  • Cilic was same odds as today and beat Janko on grass last year at Queens.
  • This should be a 2-0 Marin who looks classy on grass. Anything else, get stuck in!! Any rise in Cilic odds, get stuck in.

Vasek Pospisil v Alexander Dolgopolov - 1.78 Dolgo

  • 112th v 82nd.
  • Only one head to head in 2014 saw Dolgo win.
  • Pospisil has been a Challenger player on clay.
  • On grass he had to go through qualifiers to get to this stage.
  • Pospisil does not tend to go deep in his grass tournaments. Last year? Round of 32, round of 32, round of 16, round of 128.
  • I am afraid Dolgo is unreadable for me and if his odds get to 1.2 I would lay him hoping his inconsistency sees an odds swing. Vasek though tends to play low level tennis.

Thanasi Kokkanikis v Daniil Medvedev - 1.73 Daniil

  • I have tried a tactic with Kokkanikis which has profited twice. That is, to lay his opponent because quite simply, Kokk is an unknown in his comeback.
  • He took a set off Nishikori. He beat Youzhny ( =1.6) yesterday in 2 so I will continue this tactic. Probably better to back Thanasi at the odds or over evens if his odds rise and hope he continues to be unreadable to the market makers. He is obviously a talent but the market does not know how to price him up on his comebacks.

WTA Nottingham

Maria Sakkari v Christina McHale - 1.48 McHale

  • 96th v 44th.
  • Both players fought out 3 setters in their first Nottingham matches on grass.
  • McHale has only 3 recent wins since Miami, all wins coming in 3 sets.
  • Last year Sakkari went through qualifiers to get to Wimbledon and lasted 2 rounds. No strong grass form to work with.
  • Similar form for McHale.
  • With a player with only 3 wins since Miami, all 3 setters, McHale for me is not backable at 1.48. This may be another 3 setter. Both players battled 3 setters in their first Notts match. I would be keener for McHale to win the first set so I can lay her at short odds.

Johanna Konta v Yanina Wickmayer - 1.3 Konta

  • 7th v 72nd.
  • Wickmayer won on grass in a head to head this time last year.
  • Konta's first Nottingham match saw her opponent retire.
  • She had a really poor French Open losing to Hsieh after winning the first set 1-6.
  • Round of 16 at Nottingham last year, round of 16 Birmingham, semi finals in Eastbourne, 2 rounds only at Wimbledon for Konta on grass last year.
  • She has improved markedly since across all codes - hard especially.
  • Form wise, Konta is clearly the best players. Note Yanina beat Wozniacki and Konta on grass last year but as I say Konta has reached a number of quarter finals and better since on all ground codes. I am with Konta today and hope her odds rise in play so that I can back her at value odds.

Alison Riske v Rybarikova - 1.95 Riske

  • Note this is a match where the market cannot split the teams. Does this lead to a 3-setter? If so, lay the first set winner.
  • 39th v 384th. When I see a rankings differential like this but a market which is so tight, this suggests Rybarikova has had some injury concerns which affected her momentum rankings wise.
  • Rybarikova is 2-0 in head to heads from 2014.
  • Rybarikova has largely been playing in 60k events, semi final, Final, Final recently. In Surbiton on grass, she beat Heather Watson in the Final.
  • Riske also beat Heather Watson in her first Nottingham match.
  • Riske is not going deep into tournaments, at least on clay.
  • Last year, Riske won at Eastbourne and Nottingham on Grass, albeit the 50K Eastbourne event, not the main.
  • She failed to get out of qualifiers for Eastbourne proper and was knocked out in one match at Wimbledon.
  • Rybarikova grass form is, well, not there. Only 3 matches last year, one she retired in.
  • Good clay form for Rybarikova albeit in 60K events. Riske has been poor, not really getting past any 2nd round matches at the tournaments she has competed in.
  • Rather like Steve Johnson's match the other day, I can make a cogent argument for both players, so will lay the first set winner.

Lucie Safarova v Su-Wei Hsieh - 1.43 Safarova

  • 28th v 101st.
  • Safarova is 3-0 in head to heads.
  • Convincing in Budapest this year losing only 3 matches.
  • Struggle for Lucie in her opener in Nottingham v 154th.
  • She had a really poor clay round.
  • Round of 16 at Wimbledon last year.
  • I like Hsieh.A battler at the French Open with 3 consecutive 3 setters.
  • I think Hsieh can give Safarova a run today and I would be happier laying Safarova if Saf wins first set (will get shorter odds to lay at).