Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Football from throughout Europe today. I will also try to trade tennis on Twitter @drtclub. Head over to DRT Facebook for a list of the matches I am interested in. I am seeing a friend today (very rare I know) but will have a 'device' with me to keep an eye on Rome and tweet any possible trades.

18:00 - Elfsborg v AFC Utd - 1.46 Elfsborg

  • No relevant recent head to heads.
  • This is 11th v 16th (bottom) in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • No win yet this season for AFC who look to me like a newly promoted side struggling in the rarified air.
  • 3 wins and a draw away for AFC, and 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Both sides have only kept the one clean sheet this season.
  • Elfsborg are hardly sparking. 2 losses, a win, 2 draws, 2 losses in recent matches.
  • All Elfsborg defeats though have come against the current top 5. So there is a context here when comparing with bottom side AFC.

Conclusions

  • Elfsborg have scored 3 and 5 goals v bottom 1/3rd sides this season and that could be repeated today against an AFC finding the Allsvenskan all too difficult.
  • We should not see a 0-0.
  • We should see Elfsborg return to winning ways today. Both teams could score and certainly I would back Elfsborg if AFC scored first.

18:00 - Gefle v Osters - 2.7 Gefle

  • Odds like these are off-putting straight away.
  • This is the Swedish Superettan, their version of the English Championship. I will sometimes venture into this league.
  • This is 14th v 5th.
  • 3 consecutive defeats for Gefle conceding 3-4-3 goals.
  • Only the one win for them was a 1-0 v current 12th in the league at home.
  • Osters have 2 defeats but those came home and away v the current top 2 teams.

Conclusions

  • Not much to work with. I would lay Gefle if Gefle scored first though. Osters seem robust enough. Gefle are conceding loads.

18:00 - Helsingborgs v Norrby IF - 1.37 Helsingborgs

  • No head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 15th in the Swedish Superettan after 7 matches.
  • Helsingborgs were in the Allsvenskan last year.
  • Helsingborgs are unbeaten so far this season.
  • They have scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 3 matches.
  • 1-1-3-2 goals scored by Helsingborgs in their 4 home matches.
  • Helsingborgs have failed to score only once.
  • 2 draws for Helsingborgs v 13th and 14th at home.
  • Norrby are struggling away, with 3 losses without scoring.
  • One win this season came last home match, a 3-2 v current 14th.

Conclusions

  • Helsingborgs are relegated and seem to be finding this a bit easier, remaining as they do unbeaten. I do expect a Helsingborgs win today, given Norrby have failed to score in 3 defeats away, conceding 2 goals at least.

18:00 - IFK Goteborg v AIK - 2.16 IFK

  • IFK do not tend to lose head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 5th in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
  • IFK's only 2 defeats this season came in their last 2 away matches.
  • 3 consecutive 1-1 home draws ended with a 3-0 home win so that sequence has ended.
  • AIK are showing a strong defensive pattern.3 1-0 wins and a 0-0 in their last 4 matches. That ended a run of 2 2-1 defeats.
  • If the opposition cannot score, the opposition cannot win!
  • With IFK in 10th albeit after only 8 matches, AIK have shown already an ability to cope with the early league stragglers. Wins away v 11th, 14th, and home v 13th suggests this could be a tight match.

Conclusions

  • Hard to read matches after 8 games but I want to start the Allsvenskan early so we get a feel for the teams. IFK ended a 1-1 pattern with a win last match but might return to the 1 goal scored in a home match if AIK continue their new-found defensive strength which halted 2 2-1 defeats. 1-1 and 0-1 might be correct scores of interest. There is an argument for backing 0-0 pre match and hoping this strong defensive AIK turns up, to trade out at halftime if lucky enough to see 0-0 then. I re-iterate that it is hard to make accurate calls this early.

18:00 - Jonkopings Sodra v Djurgardens - 2.18 Djurgardens

  • Sodra have won the last 2 head to heads, keeping clean sheets.
  • This is 8th v 4th in the Swedish Allsvenskan after 8 matches.
  • Both sides have only 2 defeats this season.
  • 2-2 and 2 wins at home for Sodra.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets for Sodra.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Djurgardens.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 for Djurgardens. 0-2-1-4 goals scored last 4 aways.

Conclusions

  • I continue to research this league even if the patterns are not strong yet. We get to know the teams early and that will pay off later in the season.
  • Clean sheets for both sides is a current pattern.
  • These 2 look too well-matched for me to take sides this early.

18:45 - FC Basel v Sion - 1.8 Basel

  • I only include this Swiss super league match because FC Basel have been so entertaining for the trader who continues to side with them despite the fact that the title has been wrapped up for some time.
  • Even losing their last 4 matches will have no bearing on FC Basel's title.
  • Sion still have 3rd place to protect, 2nd spot is too far away points wise.
  • Here are some Basel recent scorelines. 2-2 v Vaduz - a great trade, 2-0 down and a last gasp equalizer for Basel.
  • 1-2 v Luzern. That, I'm afraid was rather straightforward for Basel.
  • 2-2 v Lugano. Basel took a 0-2 lead only to be pegged back.
  • 3-3 v Thun. Thun led on 2 occasions here. 0-1 to 1-1, 1-2 to 3-2 Basel only for Basel to concede late.
  • Quite simply Basel are not at the races knowing the title is theirs. Look for any speculative lays of Basel if leading by 2 clear goals or if leading coming into the last seconds of the match - lay them!
  • Sion have only had 3 draws all season, 2 were 0-0 so lay any late draw with these guys. Let's hope for a 2-2 or a 3-3 late on that we can lay!

Italian Seria B - last day. I thought I would take a look - I have removed the 'dead rubbers' from the list. Here are the rules: http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2013/8/23/4650160/serie-b-playoff-rules

19:30 - Perugia v Salernitana - 1.52 Perugia

  • Both teams scored in the last 4 head to heads. 2-1 Salernitana in the last head to head.
  • This is 5th v 10th in Italian Seria B. Salernitana can enter the apparent play-off places.
  • Only 2 defeats for Perugia this 2017.
  • 7 draws and 3 wins for Perugia this year at home.
  • No defeat in 14 at home for Perugia.
  • 12 0-0's at halftime at home for Perugia.
  • Perugia failed to score at home v 7th, 8th, 9th and 11th. and play 10th today.
  • If Salernitana win, they have a great chance of entering the play-off places.
  • They have failed to score in their last 3 away matches.
  • With only 2 wins v top 19 away for Salernitana I cannot see them doing it but then they did beat Perugia 2-1 at home so there is hope.

19:30 - Avellino v Latina - 1.25 Avellino

  • Avellino seem to be in a position to stave off relegation. Latina, in 21st, are relegated. Avellino are 18th.
  • Avellion are unbeaten in Italian Seria B v teams below them in the league.
  • v 12th and lower, Latina have had 14 draws, 3 0-1 away wins, one home win and a draw.
  • Faith in the odds and needs must for Avellino. They must avoid the draw from these Latina draw merchants.

19:30 - Ascoli v Ternana - 1.62 Ternana

  • Ternana could drop into the bottom 5 if losing today and if Avellino (see above) win.
  • Ascoli gain and lose nothing here today.
  • 5 clean sheets in 6 matches for Ascoli.
  • Ascoli have scored 2 goals at home in all matches v 18th and lower. Do they have the motivation today because they have the proven ability to score 2 goals.
  • Ternana have only 2 wins away. 6 wins in 10 matches for Ternana so they ended the season strongly.
  • Again faith in the market and the market sides with the team who needs a win. Ascoli tend to score 2 goals v teams 18th and lower and could be a thorn in Ternana's side.

19:30 - Frosinone v Pro Vercelli - 1.3 Frosinone

  • Frosinone are 3rd in Italian Seria B and could go 2nd with a win.
  • No win in 5 for Pro Vercelli sees 4 draws in that run. That could be the only danger to Frosinone today.
  • 3 wins in 4 for Frosinone so in decent recent form.
  • Frosinone have scored in their last 17 home matches so I expect them to get on the scoresheet today.
  • With Pro vercelli, 0-0 is in-play, 0-0 away v 1st, 4th, 7th and 9th.. Pro Vercelli have failed to score 2 goals in an away match v top 11 so if scoring first, that's an angle we can use.

Conclusions

  • Little to play for, for Pro Vercelli bar a job as spoilers. 0-0 is in play with them if they consent to turn up. Frosinone though have scored in their last 17 home so expect a goal from them, and if Pro Lead at any stage, I must lay them.

19:30 - Cesena v Verona - 1.69 draw

  • Nothing much else to say here. Yes the draw is now up to 1.81 from 1.69 and is the favourite here.
  • Not sure what is going on here. Can't Hellas Verona go top with a win? They are only 2 points shy of Spal. That will require Spal to draw at least.
  • A draw for Hellas will confirm 2nd on goal difference.
  • If anyone can enlighten me? Has Fat Tony requested kindly that Hellas Verona do not win the league title? Has the manager received a horse's head in his bed?

19:30 - Carpi v Novara - 1.67 Carpi

  • 3rd to 8th place seems to be the places for some kind of play-off in Italian Seria B.
  • If Novara win (9th currently) they could enter that play-off zone.
  • Carpi though are favourites today to ensure they stay in the play-off zone.
  • Only 1 loss in 8 at home for Carpi sees 3 consecutive wins now.
  • Only league leaders SPAL have beaten Carpi at home v the top 11.
  • That was the only match where Carpi conceded 2 goals amongst the top 11 at home.
  • Novara have 2 consecutive wins and 2 wins in 3 away, including v 3rd placed Frosinone.
  • Novara beat 2nd and 3rd away, the only wins v top 11.

Conclusions

  • Carpi are in excellent recent form. Novara have recently beaten 3rd placed away but the market has dismissed that and gone with the home side. I thought Novara had as much of a motivation today.
  • My usual rule applies. If there is no strong angle, don't play!

19:30 - SPAL v Bari - 1.66 Spal

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met. This is 1st v 11th in Italian Seria B.
  • I really am not sure what is going on. Hellas Verona are on 73 points to SPAL's 75 points yet the draw is odds-on favourite for Hellas Verona.
  • Surely you'd think Verona would seek a win today because then they will have 76 points and SPAL would have to win (a draw may not be enough as goal difference is similar).
  • No win in 3 for SPAL includes 2 0-0's and a loss.
  • Since 1st October, only 3rd placed Frosinone have beaten SPAL.
  • Only 1 win in 11 for Bari sees their season pretty much over.
  • 10 under 2.5 goals matches in a row though suggests they still have that defensive bent.
  • But failing to score in 9 of their last 11 matches suggests advantage SPAL.

Conclusions

  • My mind is befuddled by this league. Surely a win secures the title for SPAL? They play a Bari unable to score so this should be an easy assignment for SPAL.

19:30 - Vicenza v Spezia - 1.72 Spezia

  • This match seems to have equal importance to these sides. Vicenza are 3rd bottom. A win could see them climb into what looks like one of two relegation play-off spots.
  • Their goal difference is negative 9 which means Vicenza look relegated.
  • At the other end of the table Spezia are 7th and threatened for their play-off place by Novara. Spezia must match Novara today in order to remain within the play-off places.
  • Already we have a pattern to oppose. 3 consecutive 0-0's for Spezia. Spezia have failed to score in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Vicenza have conceded in each of their last 10 home matches.
  • With a combined 24 0-0's at halftime for these 2, we might have to wait til the 2nd half if there is to be a goal.
  • Vicenza have only 3 home wins v top 21 teams. Spezia have 4 0-0's away v bottom 4 sides.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 must be in play, mustn't it? To be opposed in the second half. If Vicenza win, as far as I can tell, they take over Spezia's play-off place. I would back 0-0 pre match and hope to trade off the 0-0 at halftime.

19:30 - Brescia v Trapani - 2.36 Brescia

  • This is a match with plenty to play for. These 2 sides are 16th and 19th in the league.
  • If Trapani win today, they could relieve themselves of a bottom 5 play-off relegation spot and bring others into play, Brescia included.
  • If Brescia win, they guarantee safety from relegation and relegation play-offs.
  • Only the league leaders have beaten Brescia in their last 11 matches but they have seen 7 draws.
  • Brescia scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No draw for Trapani since 12th March.
  • Only 3 away wins for Trapani so probabilities are against them.

Conclusions

  • On very recent form, Brescia should not lose this match.
  • That would be my angle today.

19:45 - Leicester v Tottenham - 1.9 Tottenham

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 2nd in the Premiership.
  • Tottenham finish 2nd regardless of any remaining results.
  • Leicester can finish 8th if they want. I am not sure that this interests them.
  • Leicester end the season with 2 consecutive home matches. I thought they might be incentivised by this being their last home match but it is not.
  • 3-3-2-2-3 scored by Leicester at home recently. If they can be motivated today, then that is their goal expectation.
  • Tottenham have only 2 defeats since 4th Feb, the rest wins.
  • Again I am bowing out here. As these leagues end, the Scandinavian leagues begin. Trading here is best served via in-play stats to get a feel for motivation.
  • These end of season extravaganzas have tended to be goal-laden affairs. Were I to concoct a trading angle, then backing 2-2 pre-match would enter my calculations. Given Leicester's goals at home and the obvious Tottenham threats.

19:45 - Partick v Celtic - 1.35 Celtic

  • Things have been done and dusted for Celtic in the Scottish Premier League for some time now.
  • Celtic have conceded in 8 of their last 9 matches. This looks to be a mini-table called the 'Championship Round' so I guess there is still motivation to win?
  • In 4 of their last 6 matches, Celtic have scored first and then conceded the next goal.
  • 3 defeats and a 2-2 v Hearts for Partick recently. They did score v Rangers and Hearts.
  • Another low-key affair but Celtic have been winning whatever odds they are and however late in the season it is. I will continue to lay Celtic if Celtic lead just really for fun and hope their recent pattern of conceding continues. An alternative? Back 1-2 or 1-3 if Celtic lead? It might have trading legs.