Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I am missing out on some great trading angles which I hope you are spotting without assistance. The Hoff are doing what the Hoff do best. Goal before halftime (well, 4) and a late Desmond Tutu ending. Juventus continue the high strike rate for 0-0's at halftime ending 2nd half. Real Madrid saw the really big names up front, a 0-0 at halftime and said 0-0 ending with...a Betis 90th+ minute winner. This was a match I would have loved to have layed that late draw. This could be the season Zidane says 'au revoir' and picks up his P45. Out of the title race already this early. Sevilla again another great example of a 0-0 at halftime ending 2nd half.
A quieter day today. I return Sunday so may be unable to live chat Saturday as I would like. Normal service will be resumed next week and I apologise for missing such good football coupons this week.

SWEDISH ALLSVENKAN

17:00 - Orebro v AFC Utd - 1.72 Orebro

  • 2-2 in the only recent head to head.

Orebro

  • 3 losses in 4.
  • Only 3 clean sheets suggests that they will concede.
  • Failed to score in only 1 match since 29th May.
  • 6 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches at home.
  • Conceded in their last 11 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home clean sheet.
  • 13 of 19 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

AFC

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 12 away.
  • No away win.
  • 20 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I thought the market could be keener on Orebro. On bare probabilities, AFC are unlikely to win. They could score though as Orebro let teams score at home, but still they should be unable to win.
  • That is a simplistic angle.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

18:00 - Sundsvall v AIK - 1.6 AIK

  • A 0-0 in the last head to head is not the norm.
  • AIK do not tend to lose head to heads.

Sundsvall

  • 3 consecutive wins but failed to beat any top 9 side at home or any top 6 side home or away.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

AIK

  • Only 3 defeats since 27th April.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Only 2 away losses.
  • Have scored a single goal only away v 9th, 10th, 13th, 14th and 15th.
  • 9 goals scored away in the first 30 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • Using pure logic here, a side like AIK should not be losing, based purely on probability, but their Achilles heel may be the fact that they tended to score just one goal v 9th-15th away.
  • Sundsvall have their 3 wins but the fact remains top 6 teams seem a step too far and that is how we should enter this match, expecting AIK not to lose.

SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA

19:00 - Villarreal v Espanyol - 1.76 Villareal

  • Villareal are unbeaten in the last 4 head to heads.
  • 2 losses and 2 wins for Villareal this season. 2 losses came away from home.
  • 3-1 v Betis and 0-3 v Alaves. The market expects a good performance from Villareal today.
  • Only 1 win for Espanyol this season.
  • Nothing for me to get my teeth into yet. There is an argument for Villareal today. They are unbeaten in 4 head to heads and are now on a 2 match winning run. Is that enough for us to side with Villareal today?

20:00 - Celta Vigo v Getafe - 1.78 Celta Vigo

  • 3 losses in 4 matches for Celta Vigo. Both teams scored in those defeats. Celta Vigo have scored in their 4 matches this season.
  • Celta are yet to have a 0-0 at halftime in their 4 matches this season.
  • Getafe lost at home to Sevilla and Barcelona. They drew 0-0 away to Ath Bilbao and beat Leganes 1-2 away.
  • There are no head to heads to work with.
  • Tough to call. Will Celta Vigo continue to score? If this pattern continues, lay Getafe if Getafe scores first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Celta Vigo.

21:00 - Levante v Sociedad - 2.4 Sociedad

  • No head to heads since March 2016.
  • Levante have the look of a team who are tough to beat. A win and 3 score draws now, includes a 1-1 v Real Madrid.
  • 2 of Levantes 5 goals were penalties.
  • Both teams have scored before halftime in Levantes last 3 matches.
  • 3 Sociedad wins ended with a loss v Real Madrid.
  • Both teams scored in 3 Sociedad matches.
  • Here we have to form teams meeting each other in what is a tricky encounter for me to get a fix on after 4 matches.
  • If we look at the obvious, then both teams to score. You could even chance a 1-1 in the halftime score market as it is a habit for both teams.