Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Nice of New Zealand to score first yesterday. I hope you played.
Tennis dominates today as the Confederations Cup matches are very difficult to read.

16:00 Cameroon v Australia - 2.48 Cameroon

  • The market has done our work for us for both matches today in the Confederations Cup. I am afraid I have no angles at all.
  • Cameroon's concession of late goals only suggests they may be defensively set up.
  • Australia 2-3 loss to Germany must be put into context. This was not THE Germany side, but a second string.
  • As I say, I have no angle. In-play stats are the best way to play....if you play at all!

16:30 - VPS v RoPS - 1.91 VPS

  • 2-4 VPS in the last head to head.
  • This is 2nd v 10th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

VPS

  • Only 1 loss in 12 matches.
  • Only 2 under 2.5 goals in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • Conceded in their last 5 home matches.
  • No home 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Lost to 8th and 9th at home and play 10th today.

RoPS

  • No draw.
  • 4 losses in 5 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets. Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • No halftime draw away.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • All defeats v top 4.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Expectation is for 2 goals at least today but maybe not 3. VPS have 100% over 1.5 goals at home but only 2 recent over 2.5 goals matches.
  • 2-0. 1-1 possible scorelines?

16:30 - HJK Helsinki v IFK Mariehamn - 1.34 HJK

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 1st v 3rd in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HJK

  • Only 1 loss.
  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • Unbeaten at home - all wins bar a draw at home.
  • Led at halftime in all home matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • Only 1 goal conceded at home.

IFK

  • Only 3 losses.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches - those wins were 2-1.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Only 1 away win.
  • Conceded in their 6 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • Not met the top 2 away but 1-1 at home.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. HJK could even lead at halftime.
  • IFK matches have all seen at least 2 goals. I do not expect HJK to lose but cannot discount a 1-1.
  • I would lay IFK if IFK score first.

19:00 - Germany v Chile - 2.66 Chile

  • 2-3 Germany and 0-2 Chile in their openers.
  • This is a second string German side and it showed via their goal keeper and Hoffenheim centre forward choices.
  • Again a match I have no strong angles into. Chile looked laboured v Chile but by far the better side and the goals came once Sanchez was on the field.
  • I cannot envision how this match will play out, as the odds suggest it is too tough to call.

TENNIS

AEGON

Jeremy Chardy v Feliciano Lopez - 1.46 Lopez

  • Quick research here. I hold Lopez in high standing on grass, as advertised by his 2-0 win over Wawrinka yesterday.
  • I am with Lopez here and will lay Chardy if Chardy wins the first set and back Lopez if we get near evens with his odds.

Jordan Thompson v Sam Querrey - 1.39 Querrey

  • 77th v 27th.
  • Thompson beat a Murray clearly not in form yesterday. It was painful watching him.
  • Querrey reached the quarter finals at Wimbledon last year. I do think Thompson's luck is all finished with the Murray match. Querrey will no way play as poorly as Murray and I expect Thompson to be beaten today.
  • Let's hope he offers some early resistance so that I can back Sam at higher odds.

Marin Cilic v Stefan Kozlov - 1.12 Marin

  • 8th v 147th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Interesting to see he beat Steve Johnson, albeit last 2 sets were 6-1 6-1 which suggests to me SJ had a niggle.
  • With that thought, and it is just a thought, Cilic should be winning 2-0.
  • Kozlov is predominantly a Challenger player.

Danii Medvedev v Thanasi Kokkinakis - 1.67 Danii

  • 63rd v newly returned to the tour.
  • Danii beat Thanasi recently in 2 straight sets. The second set was a tie breaker.
  • For me the 2nd set was close enough for me to retain an interest in laying Danii if Danii wins the first set. Kokkinakis is clearly talented enough to return to the ATP instantly post-injury. He took a set off Nishikori and beat Youzhny in straight sets. Yes there is a risk that he is ring-rusty but a tie breaker 2nd set is good enough for me.

GERRY WEBER

Roberto Bautista Agut v Alexander Zverev - 1.38 Alex

  • 18th v 21st so rankings are tight.
  • 7-5  7-5 Zverev in 2017 Munich head to head. So a good battle in store.
  • 2 3 setters in this tournament for Agut suggests he should not be winning 2-0.
  • 4 wins in 5 grass court events for Alex were all 2 set wins.
  • I would oppose an Agut first set win as he has a pattern for 3 setters.

Kei Nishikori v Karen Khachanov -  1.36 Nishikori

  • 7th v 56th.
  • Nishikori won a 4 setter in the US Open in 2016 head to head.
  • Kei will take a lot from beating Verdasco who took a set off him as per head to heads and my research.
  • He had a reasonably good clay court season - quarters in Roland Garros.
  • 2nd round Halle and 4th round Wimbledon for Nishikori last year.
  • Karen will be familiar to DRT'ers from the French Open.
  • He left in his wake Tomas Berdych and John Isner. He was beaten by Murray in 3 sets.
  • Karen took 3 sets to beat Gilles Simon first round.
  • Nishikori has dropped a set in 7 of his last 8 matches. I hope for some fun from our Karen today. He/She may be able to boost Kei's odds to a more backable level - I would be happy backing him at 1.8 and higher.
  • In dropping at least a set, Nishikori has shown he wins sets too so I would be surprised with a Karen 2-0, albeit he beat Berdych 3-0 in the French Open.

Roger Federer v Mischa Zverev - 1.18 Roger

  • 4th v 35th.
  • 3-0 Roger in the last 3 head to heads, latterly in 2017.
  • Roger beat 91st in his first round. He took the clay court season off.
  • Zverev reached the semis on grass in Stuttgart.
  • Roger reached the semi's here last year, halted by Alex Zverev.
  • Mischa was involved in qualifiers on grass last year.
  • There is still a question mark about Roger being fully wound up here. Losing to Wawrinka, and Berdych suggests top 10 is a step too far.
  • Roger is tempting to lay at 1.18 but I would prefer to lay him if he wins the first set.

M Youzhny v Andrey Rublev - 1.64 Youzhny

  • 89th v 117th.
  • Both russians so should know each other.
  • Youzhny has been in tie breaker mode. He won the qualifier final in 3 tie breakers and even beat Ivo Karlovic first round in a tie breaker. Is Mikhail going through a good pattern of service holds?
  • He is clearly in the twilight of his career. His recent form is poor and he rarely visits the third round of a tournament.
  • Quarter Final, Third Round, Second Round at Wimbledon last year for Youzhny. There is a feeling that he likes grass. Lifetime 24-16 wins/losses on grass and 11/9 over 3 sets.
  • Rublev has limited grass court form from 2015. Qualifiers and no major tournament appearances.
  • Rublev is largely a Challenger player and his atp tour performances are quickly stifled in the first round. To put a spanner in the works, Rublev beat 19th ranked Vinolas on grass last round in a 3 setter.
  • On very recent form, I would expect Youzhny not to lose 2-0. He is going through a strong service pattern, hence the tie breakers. I would be happy backing Youzhny if he gets around evens.

Florian Mayer v Lucas Pouille - 1.69 Pouille

  • 47th v 14th.
  • Mayer is a German in Germany. I remember Mayer from last year. Superb on grass.
  • Quarter Final and Final (winner) last year in Germany for Mayer.
  • Loss v Chardy (2 tie breakers) and win v Paire. This is the 3rd consecutive French man for Mayer.
  • Mayer's clay and hard court form is really poor. But clearly in Germany, on grass, he has excelled in the past.
  • Pouille is doing what Mayer did last year. Pouille won the Stuttgart Tournament beating solid grasscourt yardstick Feliciano Lopez.4 3-setters in 5 matches for Pouille.
  • This should be an entertaining affair between 2 players who obviously like Germany. I would lay the first set winner here. Not saying it will be 3 sets, I think a 2nd set would be keenly fought and might go to a tie breaker or be tight enough to allow a profitable trade.

WTA Birmingham

Camila Giorgi v Elina Svitolina - 1.46 Svitolina

  • 90th v 13th.
  • 2014 Svitolina win in head to head.
  • 6 grass court matches played by Giorgi last 2 tournaments, 4 tie breakers played and the only reasonably comfortable match was a 2 set win v 221st.
  • Giorgi came through a qualifier to get here.
  • 3 consecutive 1st rounds on grass last year for Camila.
  • Svitolina had a superb clay season, winning in Rome and quarters in French Open.
  • She beat Heather Watson in her opener here. Good display v a local hero.
  • Elina has been seeded last 2 Wimbledons and lost in the 2nd round.
  • Giorgi should be stretched today. Questionable form on grass from Elina but if she brings a small amount of her Clay court form, she should be the winner.
  • Note the Giorgi tie breakers. She won the last 2 v 154th and 77th and really should struggle if 13th is in any reasonable form.

Coco Vanderweghe v Johanna Konta - 1.58 Konta

  • 23rd v 7th.
  • These 2 last met 2012.
  • Coco met 44th in the first round here.
  • She has lost to 69th and 384th recently.
  • Final, Semi final, 4th round Wimbledon for Coco last year on grass. Not bad.
  • Konta reached the final in Nottingham but as she has done in 2 big matches recently, she won the first set with ease then lost the match.
  • Recent collateral form. Konta beat Rybarikova who beat Coco recently Semis at Eastbourne, 2nd round Wimbledon
  • Konta's odds have rarely deviated from 1.5-1.6 recently and she has generally delivered.
  • I cannot see Konta tolerating a 2-0 defeat so will lay Coco if Coco wins the first set. I like Konta's recent final at Nottingham too.

 Lucie Safarova v Daria Gavrilova - 1.72 Lucie

  • 28th v 27th. Can't get tighter rankings.
  • Lucie, Daria, Lucie in head to heads since 2016.
  • The last 4 head to heads have been won in straight sets which muddies the waters.
  • The favourite has won the last 4 head to heads.
  • Not a match which appeals. My usual angle is looking for a 3 setter but the last 4 recent head to heads were 2 setters.

Garbine Muguruza v Alison Riske - 1.84 Garbine

  • There are a lot of matches in Birmingham with very tight odds markets so be wary here. The market has no strong opinion.
  • 6th v 39th no head to heads.
  • Garbine has been less than reliable over clay.First round Stuttgart, Madrid, then semi final Rome, round of 16 French Open. Maybe she upped her game nearer to a Grand Slam.
  • 3 3-setters in 4 now for Garbine. In her first round here she struggled v 224th winning first set, losing 2nd set. This may be an angle today for a tighter betting market - lay Garbine if she wins first set?
  • Garbine was a finalist at Wimbledon 2015, but 2016, first round Mallorca and 2nd round Wimbledon going out to a qualifier.
  • Last year on grass, Riske reached the Final in Nottingham, but only qualifiers Eastbourne and first round exit Wimbledon.
  • She beat Donna Vekic first round, this is a Vekic who beat Konta on grass in Nottingham Final.
  • Riske lasted only 2 rounds at Nottingham.
  • This match for me advertises well that some ladies on the tour are very inconsistent. Riske poor at Nottingham but then beats the Nottingham winner here at Birmingham! Garbine poor in Stuttgart, Madrid, then semi finals in Rome.
  • Not for me. Worth researching because it gives me experience but I don't have a solid angle. Do you?

MALLORCA

Varvara Lepchenko v Anastasija Sevastova - 1.51 Ana

  • 71st v 26th.
  • 5 consecutive 3 setters for Vavara.
  • 5-11 win/loss for Varvara on grass.
  • 2 consecutive 3 setters on grass for Sevastova.
  • Sev was a finalist here last year so on that basis I would favour Sev and lay Varvara if Var wins the first set.

Roberta Vinci v Kirsten Flipkens - 1.72 Flipkens

  • 36th v 93rd.
  • Last head to heads were from 2012.
  • Vinci beat 110th with ease first round here. Her recent form from Doha onwards is poor. LLWLLLLWLLLW (L-loss and W-Win). Poor form.
  • 2nd round Aegon and third round Wimbledon for Vinci.
  • 21-17 win/loss record on grass for Vinci.
  • Flipkens went through qualifiers to get here. Her last 2 matches have been 3 setters v 68th and 123rd.
  • The last 6 tournaments have seen Flipkens not get past 2nd round.
  • Semi finals at Mallorca last year for Flipkens.
  • 2 out of sorts players and no wonder the market is a little tentative. No play for me.