Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

In Iight of yesterday's extremeIy cautious dispIays in the Premiership, have managers suddenIy switched to prioritising defending and nicking a 1-0? For goodness sake, we nearIy had a 0-0 in a Leicester match!! So deIay today and see how the games pan out. I do Iike seeing strong odds on favourites who Iook worthy favourites (in Spain today). The hope of course is that the underdog pIays baII and scores first or that we get a concerted period of 0-0 (I hope you Iayed the be-jeezus out of the 0-0 in the ArsenaI v Leicester match 2nd haIf?)
I have to mention the PSG game. 1.34 pre match. 1.18 odds at the off. I hinted at a much-changed Monaco. Watch out for this next time. You can make a profit by backing the Match Odds before team news is confirmed and Iay off once the much anticipated team changes take pIace!

18:30 - Alaves v Eibar - 2.74 Alaves

  • It is turning into a day to take off! We have 2 mediocre Spanish sides and a favourite at odds of 2.74 - the market cannot even split these 2.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 11th v 8th in the Spanish La Liga.

Alaves stats

  • 3 consecutive defeats ended with 2 unbeaten matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 4 defeats at home.
  • Only scored 2 goals once at home v 9th and higher.
  • 12 goals conceded at home in the last 1/2 hour of matches.

Eibar stats

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • v 7th-12th away, Eibar are unbeaten scoring 2-2-2-4 goals but then v 13th-16th inclusive, they lost all matches.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • And that is it. Not for me!

19:30 - Sevilla v Celta Vigo - 1.39 Sevilla

  • 0-3 Sevilla in the last head to head.
  • This is 4th v 10th in the Spanish Primera Division.
  • 5 matches remain. Atl Madrid lose to Villareal. Sevilla must respond with a win to make Madrid sweat in 3rd.
  • Top 6 possible but unlikely for Celta.

Sevilla 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside of the top 2 at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Sevilla other stats

  • Only defeats since 5th Feb away to Atl Madrid and Barcelona.
  • No defeat in 10 at home.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • Lost all away v top 8.

Celta Vigo other stats

  • No draw in 8.
  • 20 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Expect 100% effort from Sevilla in light of Atl Madrid's loss to Villareal. A solid home record should continue today so lay Celta if Celta score first.
  • Note Celta tend to concede mostly 2nd half so if keeping a first half clean sheet, they will be vulnerable.
  • Sevilla have not lost to nil at home so that backs the above up.

20:00 - Man City v Man Utd - 1.93 Man City

  • 1-2 Man City in the last Premier League match.
  • This is 4th v 5th in the Premiership - these 2 sides are favourite for a top 3 spot with 2 games in hand over Liverpool.
  • No major research as this is a Manchester Derby and a match of great importance.

Man City stats

  • 2-1-3-3 goals scored recently.
  • 0-0, 1-1, 3-1 last 3 home matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 73% of halftime home scores either 0-0 or 1-0.
  • Only lost to 1st at home.score draws re the rest of the top 6.
  • 94% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.
  • 13 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Man Utd stats

  • Unbeaten in 23 matches and 10 away scoring in those 10.
  • 4 consecutive away wins.
  • Loss, draw, draw away v top 6.

Conclusions

  • I know some DRT members love to trade these matches but I cannot find the very strong angles. These matches tend to be one-off tactical affairs. There is a derby factor, a Champions League spot factor.
  • Going strictly on form, 94% over 1.5 goals for City suggests we may see 2 goals at least. City are highly likely to score 2nd half if not conceding by halftime.
  • United are on an excellent run but have not beaten a top 6 side away.
  • Make of those what you will. I tend to bow out of this high profile matches.

20:30 - Ath Bilbao v Betis - 1.39 Ath Bilbao

  • 1-0 Betis in the last head to head.
  • This is 6th v 15th in Spanish Primera Liga.

Ath Bilbao 100% stats

  • Unbeaten outside the top 2 at home.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 16th and lower.

Ath Bilbao other stats

  • 6 wins in their last 7 home matches. Only 1-2 v Real Madrid spoilt that run. Good form!
  • No draw in 14 because they have been basically winning at home and losing away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 15 goals scored at home in the half hour after halftime.

Betis 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Lost all aways v top 9 teams.
  • No draw away v teams above them in the league.

Betis other stats

  • 2 consecutive wins but only 4 wins since 14th January.
  • Scored 2 away v Barcelona, but then Barca scored 6. Failed to score 2 v other top 10 teams away.
  • 12 of 16 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • This looks rather clear cut on form. Ath Bilbao have a reasonable target to aim form, meet an away team losing away v top 9 teams and generally unable to score that 2nd goal.
  • Bilbaos excellent home win record was blunted by Real Madrid who had to work for it.
  • Expect a home win, and react if anything else. If 0-0 at halftime fear not, Bilbao have a very strong scoring record at the beginning of second halves at home.