Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Arsenal v Chelsea was good if you took up my argument for 1-1, 1-2. Chelsea went behind so that was the first angle. Lay the 1-1 draw. That was the second angle. Juventus dominated v Torino in a match too straightforward to provide us with any angle in. In the Copa del Rey, Valencia were strong and came from behind to equalise 1-1. I used in-play stats there. As I write below, 2 legged matches are tough to predict as teams have a second bite of the cherry if drawing or marginally losing the first leg.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

20:00 - Tottenham v West Ham - 1.31 Tottenham

  • Head to heads irrelevant as we have that new manager for West Ham, football genius David Moyes.

Tottenham (5th)

  • Deserved win v Swansea mid week without Harry Kane.
  • Remember that this is a London Derby.
  • 2+ goals scored in 5 wins in their last 6 matches - only lost v Man City.
  • 6 wins in 7 home matches. 5-2-5 goals scored at home recently putting that 'curse of Wembley' to bed.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 10 matches.
  • Only home loss v 3rd in the league.
  • Loss, loss, 1-0 win, 2-3 win v London sides this season.
  • A massive 12 goals scored at home in the 45th - 75th minutes.

West Ham (16th)

  • 3-2-3-2 goals scored last 4 matches. Remember mid week I mentioned that under Moyes, West Ham aim for low scoring clean sheets v the big guns, but score 2/3 goals v the lower sides.
  • 1-1-1-0 scored v top 10 teams under Moyes.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Mid week I sided with West Ham because I argued they were playing a side they could score 2 goals against. That worked. Today though they play a top side so will they revert to low scoring?
  • If so, lay West Ham if West Ham score first. Tottenham are scoring freely at the moment at home. I am going to assume this West Ham side returns to scoring a goal max v top 10 teams. They will be vulnerable.
  • Watch out if Harry Kane is missing for Spurs.He is the Spurs top scorer by a factor of 3 over 2nd highest scorer. Will that impact Spurs' ability to score 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches (wins).
  • Also remember the London Derby factor.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMIERA LIGA

18:15 - Setubal v Estoril Praia - 2.82 Estoril

  • The home side has won the last 5 head to heads.

Setabul (18th and bottom)

  • 6 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 wins all season.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Wins v 4th and 6th at home is very random considering this is the worst team on form in Portugal.

Estoril (17th)

  • 2 0-0's, a loss v Benfica and a win v Aves 3-2 in the last 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 7 consecutive matches until the last 2 matches.
  • 1-1-0-0-0-1 goals scored away recently.
  • Only 1 away win.

Conclusions

  • Given it is a quiet day I thought I would go to Portugal but yet again we see the market gives us the nudge. 2.82 the favourite means this is too tight to call with bottom 2 in the league.
  • Not for me thanks.

20:15 - Portimonense v Belenenses - 2.02 Portimonense

  • No recent head to heads

Portimonense (12th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 defeats at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • All defeats this season have come v top 8 teams.
  • 2 goals scored at home v 9th and lower.

Belenenses (11th)

  • 4 defeats in 5 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • All defeats away bar a win v 13th.

Conclusions

  • Belensenses sole win away v 13th throws a small spanner in the works here. I would have gone with Portimonense's 2+ goal habit v 9th and lower at home as being enough to secure a positive result and as a prompter to us to lay Belenenses if Belenenses scored first.
  • Both teams though are in a poor recent pattern for not scoring. Will this change with sights somewhat lowered?

The Spanish Copa Del Rey is on today and it is a 2-legged affair. This means that teams do not need to win today as they have a second bite at the cherry. Yesterday saw all favourited perform well. Valencia also came from behind to draw 1-1.

Big guns like Barcelona and Real Madrid play today, both away from home. They may not win today but are highly likely to win their second legs at home. These matches are best served via in-play stats. The most accessible and free in-play stats are found at www.flashscore.com via the Live Centre. I would also recommend www.willhill.com (yes the bookie!) whose in-play stats coverage is superb.

Team news for the big guns can be found at www.flashscore.com, via the live centre where you click on Line Ups. Barcelona today are 2.08 favourites where ordinarily they would be very short odds indeed.
Real Madrid play Numancia away from home and are 1.28 shots.

Villareal and Leganes sees those odds of 2.64 for the favourite which tells us the market cannot split these 2. This match is definitely better served when viewed at the second-leg stage.
Espanyol are 1.75 favourites at home to Levante today.

My focus will definitely be with Barcelona and Real Madrid today. I will not research these matches as I said before, because teams of this calibre will take a marginal loss into the second leg (indeed it will serve ticket sales well to have a 'come-from behind' second leg scenario for their home legs).

If you want to research the Copa Del Rey, then I would recommend www.soccerway.com as you can filter matches by competition. I would take this approach
Home team - home form; overall form (home and away all competitions); cup home form; cup overall form.

Away team - away form; overall form (home and away all competitions); cup away form; cup overall form.

I will spend today researching the Seria A matches and FA Cup matches for Friday onwards. I quite simply am not taken by 2-legged matches, at least until the second leg where we have an 'angle' in.