Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Big winner last night on live chat? Backing 1-3 Tottenham at 1-0 down at halftime. The Betting Gods were smiling upon me admittedly. It was a great example of why I do hours of research. Swansea have conceded 2 goals at least in EVERY match v a top 6 side. Hence my correct scores on 1-2, 2-2 and 1-3. And so it came to pass....
Quiet evening and a good opportunity for you to try for yourself as we have a very manageable set of 4 matches.

17:30 - Roda JC v Zwolle - 2.48 Zwolle

  • The odds do not appeal to me. I will research though as it is a quiet night.
  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 18th v 11th in the Dutch Eredivisie.

Roda JC other stats

  • 4 defeats last 5 matches.
  • Last 3 home defeats all came v the big 3.
  • Only 3 wins at home, 2 v bottom 3.

Zwolle 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 14th and lower.
  • No away 0-0.

Zwolle other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 9 of their last 11 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Conclusions

  • Note the market cannot split these teams which normally indicates a tight match.
  • On form, Zwolle are unbeaten home and away v teams 14th and lower and that seems the most straightfoward angle.
  • Both teams may score and Zwolle not lose.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

17:30 - Twente v PSV - 1.58 PSV

  • PSV tend to win head to heads but it was 1-1 last time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 3rd in the Dutch Eredivisie. PSV game in hand over Ajax so this is a must win to bridge the gap to 2nd to just 2 points.

Twente other stats

  • 4 wins in 6 homes.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 12 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

PSV 100% stats

  • Only lost to 1st in the league all season.

PSV other stats

  • 10 wins in 11 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No draw in 11.
  • Scored last 13 matches.

Conclusions

  • PSV should be eyeing a win today. They have only been beaten by 1st in the league.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Do expect a PSV goal if losing or if 0-0.
  • I think a score draw will be best case for Twente.

18:30 - Eibar v Las Palmas - 1.88 Eibar

  • 1-0 Las Palmas the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 8th v 12th in Spanish Primera Liga. Eibar look safe. Las Palmas have a 13 point cushion to the relegation zone.

Eibar 100% stats

  • Undefeated at home v 4th - 19th.

Eibar other stats

  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 12 matches.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • No away win v teams above them in the league.
  • No away clean sheets.

Las Palmas other stats

  • 2-3-4-3 goals conceded last 4 away matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 13 away.

Conclusions

  • Only Sporting Gijon I think are the team who can threaten Las Palmas with relegation. The other 2 spots seem assured!
  • Please remember the time of year. Some teams know they are safe and mentally switch off, knowing too they have little to benefit them either (i.e. European competition places are out of reach).
  • Basing the match on form, Eibar should not lose even if both teams score. Las Palmas have conceded heavily of late and must be layed if leading.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:30 - Valencia v Celta Vigo - 2.08 Valencia

  • Celta have won the last 4 head to heads, the last 2 coming in the Copa Del Rey and seeing both teams score.
  • This is 13th v 10th in Spanish La Liga.

Valencia 100% stats

  • No draw home or away v teams above them in the league.
  • No 0-0 at home.

Valencia other stats

  • Failed to score only 5 times.
  • 4 wins in 5 home matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Scored 2+ goals in 9 of 11 home matches v top 16.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • All away defeats have come v top 8.
  • 3-3 scorelines away either side of Valencia.

Celta Vigo other stats

  • Only 6 clean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 1 came v top 8 teams.
  • 18 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Will Valencia score 2 goals again? If so they might be well-matched by a Celta who only tend to lose to top 8 teams.
  • I think 2-2 could be a good trading angle here as Valencia have that 2 goal trend at home and Celta don't tend to lose outside the top teams, ergo if Valencia can score then Celta should reply. Note the 2 3-3 scorelines for Celta away v teams on either side of Valencia in the league!
  • Celta concede a lot 2nd half so if they have kept a 0-0 halftime I would expect 2nd half goals.