Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I nailed Panathanaikos yesterday and thought I had nailed the Valencia 1-2 but the match ended 3-3. The live chat is not about nailing correct scores though, is it? It is practically impossible for me to call every match and its correct score. The purpose is to give you a hint of what might eventuate.
Cup day today and League Cup to boot. United to play the kit man up front and tea ladies as wing-backs? With the market as it is, and Hull conceding 3 goals alternately, expectation is for 3 goals today from United who have an enviable home record in the competition. But please remember Liverpool v Plymouth as a good advert for what happens when teams change and do not perform.

20:00 - Man Utd v Hull - 1.17 Man Utd

  • This is the League cup.

Man Utd form overall

  • Unbeaten in 14 with 8 straight wins.
  • In 7 of their last 8 matches, they have scored 2 goals at least.
  • 5 consecutive home wins in a run of 14 unbeaten at home.

Man Utd league cup form

  • 4 wins and a 0-0 in their last 5 matches.
  • United were last beaten at home in 2007. On 4 occasions matches have gone to extra time.
  • Not conceded 2 goals at home since 2011.

Hull form overall

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches came last match.
  • 8 defeats in their last 9 away matches. 1-3-1-3-1-3 conceded in recent away matches.

Hull league cup form

  • Only 1 loss in their last 9 was away to Man City.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 11 away matches.
  • Most noticeably the last draw and 2 defeats away were v Premiership opponents.

Conclusions

  • Note possible team changes for both teams may skew the form (as Liverpool did at home v Plymouth).
  • On basic form the market suggests Hull will revert to conceding 3 goals at least today as happens alternately in away matches at the moment.
  • Both teams may score and I would back Man Utd if Hull score first.

20:00 - Napoli v Spezia - 1.16 Napoli

  • This is the Coppa Italia.

Napoli form overall

  • Unbeaten in 11 matches. Coming back from Xmas break, they won 2-1 at home with a last second winner - may be ring rusty.
  • Have scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 home defeats in 2016, one came in the Champions League.
  • Unbeaten in 7 homes. 3 consecutive wins.

Napoli Coppa Italia Form

  • Only 1 win in their last 4.
  • 2 losses in their last 3 home matches v Lazio and Inter.

Spezia form overall

  • Seria B side have 2 consecutive 0-0 matches.
  • Only 3 wins in 15 matches so not the best form.
  • Only 1 away win in 11 matches.

Spezia Coppa Italia form

  • Only 1 loss in 8 matches. 2 0-0's v Roma and Palermo a potential warning sign today?
  • Beat Udinese 2-3.
  • 3 0-0's and a 2-3 win v Udinese in their last 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Napoli's form overall is excellent but clearly slackens in cup competition so it would take a brave soul to do a mortgage job on them at these odds. These odds are layable at 1.17. We may not win, but Spezia have shown a propensity for 0-0's and versus a potentially weaker Napoli, it might work.
  • Please remember that Cup matches are tough to call given the likely team changes and switching off mentally of the big players.

20:00 - Sochaux v Monaco - 1.57 Monaco

  • This is the French Coupe De La Ligue, a post way of saying it's their league cup.
  • Sochaux are a Ligue 2 team, Monaco are Ligue 1.

Sochaux form overall

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in their last 16 home matches.

Sochaux Coupe de la Ligue form

  • Unbeaten in 4 matches, 3 of them went to penalties.
  • 6 losses and a draw in their last 7 away matches.

Monaco overall form

  • 10 wins, 2 losses and a draw in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 away matches, one was in the Champions League.

Monaco Coupe de la Ligue form

  • Only 3 wins in 12 matches so this is not a priority.
  • Only 2 wins in 11 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Would you trust Monaco in this competition, even though their opponent is a Ligue 2 side? No, me neither. Nothanks!

20:15 - Atletico Madrid v Las Palmas - 1.37 Atl Madrid

  • This is the Copa del Rey.

Atl Madrid form overall

  • 5 consecutive wins.
  • Scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 4 matches.
  • Only real Madrid have beaten Atl Madrid since 6th February 2016 at home.
  • 0-2 Atl Madrid win in the first leg of this competition.
  • I will end the research here. Atl Madrid do not need to win this match, only not lose 0-2.
  • Only 1 win in 11 matches for Las Palmas and any signs of Atl Madrid playing to their level, Las Palmas will not strike a blow today. But remember the permutations.