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I reluctantly research the English Championship but have left the 2.4+ favourites alone. Plenty of cup matches around Europe as well so watch out for those.

SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - Hamilton v Aberdeen - 1.83 Aberdeen

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 8/8 Aberdeen away matches against bottom-six teams and they have drawn the first half in 11/17 away matches. Hamilton Ac have conceded first in 8/13 home matches against top half non-Big One teams.

Hamilton - 11th

  • Only 4 wins 3 came at home.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 10 and last 12 at home.
  • 2 1-0 defeats v Aberdeen this season.

Aberdeen - 4th

  • Failed to score last 4 matches with 2 0-0's in a row away.
  • No win in 6 away.
  • Unbeaten v the bottom 2.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen are in poor form but may limp past Hamilton today. 2 1-0 wins v them already. I would look for Aberdeen's 2 0-0's away pattern to end today.
  • It might be a 0-1/1-0 match today.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Emmen v Twente - 2.18 Emmen

Emmen - 15th

  • 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 home matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3-3 v 3rd and 1-1 v 5th at home.
  • 2-1 loss last head to head.
  • 8/10 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Twente - 12th

  • 2 draws and a win last 3 matches.
  • No win in 7 away matches.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 11 came v 8th.
  • 13 of 19 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • A replay after a postponement.
  • Not the best match in the world. Is Emmen's recent form the clincher? 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches is CONSISTENT!

19:45 - Sparta Rotterdam v ADO Den Haag - 1.77 Sparta

Sparta - 11th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches came at home.
  • Unbeaten in 5 at home.
  • 20% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2 home losses came v 1st and 7th.
  • 1-2 win v ADO last head to head.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 3, scoring 4 goals at home.

ADO Den Haag - 17th

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 7 losses in 8 away matches.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • All defeats bar 1 away v the top 15.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, we're with Sparta - 8 goals in 2 matches at home v the bottom 2.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based mostly on ADO not having a 0-0 at halftime away.
  • ADO tend to lose v the top 15 away.

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Charleroi v Mechelen - 1.63 Charleroi

  • Match outcome: Charleroi have won 7/10 home matches against top-half teams. There have been +2.5 goals in 7/10 KV Mechelen away matches.

Charleroi - 4th

  • Only 1 loss since 20th October 2019.
  • 6 wins and a draw last 7 home matches.
  • 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • 42% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 2-2 last head to head.
  • Losses at home v 9th and 10th.
  • 6/8 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mechelen - 8th

  • 2 wins but now 3 losses.
  • 3 losses in 4 matches away.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No draw in 10 away matches.
  • 3/3 losses away v the top 3. Did beat 5th away.

Conclusions

  • Charleroi are in superb recent form, and Mechelen have failed to score away v the top 3 (albeit beating 5th).
  • We'd be with the market today.
  • Lay any late draw.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Wigan v Middlesbrough - 2.7 Wigan

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 6/8 Wigan home matches against bottom-half teams and in 9/10 Middlesbrough away matches against bottom-six teams. Middlesbrough have lost the first half in 10/14 away matches.

Barnsley v Birmingham - 2.6 Barnsley

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/6 Barnsley home matches against bottom-half teams and in 8/15 Birmingham away matches. There have been +3.5 goals in 4/6 Barnsley home matches against bottom-half teams.

Swansea v QPR - 2.08 Swansea

  • 1st goal: Swansea have scored first in 11/17 home matches against bottom-half teams while QPR have lost 9/11 away matches against top-half teams. QPR have lost by two or more goals in 5/9 away matches against top-half teams.

Swansea - 9th

  • No win in 3.
  • 2 wins and a 2-3 loss last 3 home matches.
  • 2+ goals scored last 2 home matches.
  • Only 1 team has beaten the Swans home and away 14th and lower, and that is Stoke City.
  • 1-3 win v QPR last time these 2 met.
  • 9 goals scored 60th-75th minute at home.

QPR - 17th

  • 6 losses in 8 matches, 2 wins came at home.
  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • No draw in 8 matches.
  • All defeats away v the top 8.

Conclusions

  • I am with the Swans here IF they only side 14th and lower to beat them, remains Stoke City.
  • QPR are in poor losing form too which compounds this conclusion.
  • Watch out for the Swans scoring 60th+ minute. It may be that subs at that time could impact the scoreline.

Brentford v Leeds - 2.54 Brentford

  • 1st goal: Brentford have scored first in 8/11 home matches while Leeds have conceded first in 7/10 away matches against top-six teams. Brentford have won 8/10 home matches.

Blackburn v Hull - 1.87 Blackburn

  • -2.5 goals: There have been -2.5 goals in 7/8 Blackburn home matches against middle-third teams while Hull City have drawn the first half in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams. Hull City have conceded first in 8/11 away matches against middle-third teams.

Blackburn - 12th

  • 3 losses in 14 matches. Lost last match 0-1 v Fulham (Fulham deserved it on the in-play stats).
  • That loss ended a run of 10 unbeaten at home.
  • 44% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 4th-19th.
  • 0-1 win last head to head.

Hull - 14th

  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 matches.
  • Conceded last 5 matches.
  • 47% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Beat 3rd and 4th away but then lost to 9th, 19th and 23rd i.e. form away is a bit unreadable.
  • 75% goals scored, 70% goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I don't like unreadable teams. Hull are unreadable away. They can beat 2 top 4 sides away but lose v 19th and 23rd!
  • Take that Fulham 0-1 loss away and Blackburn were on a 10 match unbeaten home run. Enough for you to suggest home is where the points are for Blackburn?
  • Strong 2nd half scoring patterns both.

Nottm Forest v Charlton - 1.64 Nottm Forest

  • 1st goal: Nottm Forest have scored first in 11/14 home matches against bottom-six teams while Charlton have lost 8/10 away matches. Nottm Forest have won 6/8 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Nottm Forest - 4th

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored last 10 matches.
  • 40% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3/3 wins v the bottom 3 at home - 2 1-0 wins - playing 4th bottom today.
  • 11 of 15 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Charlton - 21st

  • Only 4 wins since 14th September 2019.
  • 7 losses in 8 matches away.
  • No win in 12 away.
  • Conceded last 12 away.
  • Conceded 2 goals away v the top 7, 2-2 or 2-1 defeats.

Conclusions

  • Charlton may concede 2 goals today if their record v top 7 continues. Forest though have struggled with that 2nd goal but had 2 1-0 wins at home v the bottom 3.
  • Forest are the best side on recent form and have scored last 10 matches.