Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

If online, I will live chat at 19:30 on Twitter. It is a tough old coupon today though with a lot of ifs and buts and a lot of apparently tight matches.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Burnley v Stoke - 2.38 Burnley

  • 2-0 Stoke 1-0 Burnley in the last 2 head to heads.

Burnley (7th)

  • 5 wins in 7 matches. 3 of the wins were 1-0. 2 of the defeats were 1-0.
  • In 13 matches this season Burnley have struggled to score a 2nd goal.
  • Extremely tough to score against at home. 1-0-0-1-0-0-1-0 conceded at home. 2 defeats there were 0-1.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches. Remember Amiens at the weekend? It took a while for a goal laden team like Lyon to break them down.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only scored 2 goals once at home.

Stoke (15th)

  • Only 4 wins.
  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded on 11 occasions.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.

Conclusions

  • If Stoke score, and they do score and concede 11 times this season, they may get something out of this match. Burnley are very limited attack wise and although scoring 2 goals recently in wins, they may have to do so again today. They have failed to score that 2nd goal 13 times this season.
  • The match is likely to see Burnley very tough to score against. That said Stoke have failed to score only 3 times, and kept only one clean sheet.
  • 1-1 is an obvious starter. 1-0 would be the usual Burnley score but not today it seems. 2 goals I feel would be needed.

20:00 - C Palace v Watford - 2.3 Palace

  • It's a battle between the 2-goals-a-game specialists.
  • 1-1 and 1-0 Palace last 2 head to heads.

Palace (20th)

  • Only 2 clean sheets came in 2 0-0's which came in the last 3 matches.
  • 4 draws and a win in 5 matches. Woy's influence weadily weadable.
  • Scored 2 goals in each of their last 5 matches. Something we profited from at the weekend. Last home match should have been a 3-2 win but for a missed penalty from Benteke the fool.
  • Palace may be scoring 2 at home but are conceding. 3 2-2 results and 2 2-1 results.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only played 2 of the top 10 at home, a 2-1 win v 3rd and 2-2 draw v 10th.
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded at home came first half.
  • Opponents have scored first in 6/8 at home.

Watford (9th)

  • Scored 2 goals at least in 8 of their last 11 matches but worryingly have not scored that 2nd goal in 2 matches now.
  • Loss to Burnley last match was down to a red card so we never got a chance to see 11 man Watford for 90 minutes.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 in 13 matches at halftime.
  • 3 losses in 4 aways.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Losses v top 10 away - 4 wins and a 2-2 v 11th and lower, scoring 2 goals at least.

Conclusions

  • On paper Watford should be returning to their 2-goals-a-game as they have done in every positive result away v 11th and lower.
  • On paper, Palace have goals in them v all comers at home under Woy's tutelage.
  • Dare I be so obvious as to put forward a 2-2? And a lay of any team should they lead 2-0/0-2.
  • In the expectation for goals, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

20:00 - Huddersfield v Chelsea - 1.41 Chelsea

Huddersfield (12th)

  • 7 defeats and 3 wins in 10 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Despite the anomolous 2-1 win v Man Utd at home, I think the form is more accurate when we see 3 other wins at home v teams below them in the league.
  • Those wins were to nil.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 1st half.
  • Have actually scored first in 6/8 so there may be an angle there.

Chelsea (3rd)

  • Only 4 losses, 1 was v 9 men, 2 were v London opponents, and 2 were only 1-0.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 1-1-4-1-0 goals scored away. A hint at struggles?
  • Very strangely only 2 losses away v bottom 3 sides, albeit fellow Londoners.
  • 5 wins and a 1-1 in the other matches, 4-4-1-2-2 goals scored in the wins.

Conclusions

  • There is an explanation for Chelsea's 4 defeats. 9 men v Burnley; loss v Man City (who doesn't ?); losses v London opponents away where the derby atmosphere levels the playing field.
  • It would surprise anyone were Huddersfield to get anything here despite 3 wins in 4 matches. The wins at home came v teams below them in the league, bar an extremely anomolous 2-1 win v Man Utd.
  • 3 home wins were to nil for Huddersfield. Again, Chelsea's forward line is classy and should score, albeit they have been poor recently but when they turn it on, can score 2-4 goals.
  • Only 3 clean sheets in 14 should see Chelsea score and therefore not lose.

GERMAN BUNDESLIGA

17:30 - Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig - 2.44 Leipzig

  • The away team won the head to heads last year.

Wolfsburg (11th)

  • Only 3 defeats but only 3 wins. What gives? DRAW-ITIS!
  • Only Dortmund have beaten Wolfsburg at home. They are unbeaten in 7 at home.5 score draws and 2 wins.
  • 3 clean sheets, 2 came last 2 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches.
  • Unbeaten v top 6 but we see 4 score draws, 3 away.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Leipzig (2nd)

  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • All losses this season have come away v top 7.
  • Scored 2 goals in all bar 1 match v 8th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The WOLF are score draw lovers and that should see them vulnerable if leading, particularly against a Leipzig who simply do not lose outside the top 7.
  • At their best Leipzig will score 2 goals. They did so (and we profited) at the weekend so I hope will be as readable today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Leipzig have conceded in 6 away so that fits in with the Wolf's score draw record.

19:30 - Mainz v Dortmund - 1.74 Dortmund

  • Fancy that! The Dortmund manager is sacked.
  • I am not sure researching Dortmund will be worthwhile as they may change markedly under new management.
  • Only 4 wins for Mainz though.Only 2 clean sheets for Mainz.
  • 1-3-1-1-1 scored at home v Mainz recently and that might let Dortmund in, if they are in a goal scoring mood.
  • No win in 8 under old management for Dortmund.
  • Dortmund failed to score only once.
  • As I say, hard to read Dortmund now. They are in with a shout I would suggest if Mainz keep failing to score more than 1 goal in a home match.

19:30 - Freiburg v Mgladbach - 2.14 Mgladbach

  • The home side is unbeaten in the last 14 head to heads. Quite a stat.

Freiburg (16th)

  • Unbeaten in 3 with 2 wins and a 0-0.
  • Only 1 home loss.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 1-0-2-0 scored recently at home - the 2nd goal was scored 90th minute so a hint at home struggles?
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only home loss was a 0-1 v 3rd.
  • 5 of 7 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 5 of 6 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Mgladbach (4th)

  • Only 4 defeats.
  • 3 consecutive away wins ended with a loss last away match.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 3 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • No away draw.
  • Unbeaten v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • The head to head pattern is amazing and cannot be overlooked. The home side tends to go unbeaten  but on form, Mgladbach have a chance today. They are unbeaten v 12th and lower, and have goals in them.
  • They have scored 2+ goals in 5 matches away. Freiburg have gone off the boil at home scoring 1-0-2-0 recently. A concern, albeit Freiburg have only lost one match still.
  • Strong 2nd half goals trend for Freiburg so note that.
  • It is a headscratcher. Head to heads are compelling. Mgladbach's solid form v 12th and lower is compelling but then Freiburg have lost only 1 match at home.
  • One angle for sure. If 0-0 at halftime, I would take it on and expect 2nd half goals.

19:30 - Hamburg v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.74 Hamburg

  • You know the drill with 2.74 odds. The market hasn't got a clue (bit like the above Freiburg match I suppose).
  • 3 0-0's in their last 4 head to heads, broken by a Frankfurt 0-3 wins.

Hamburg (15th)

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Losses at home to 1st, 2nd and 8th (Dortmund).
  • 6 of 7 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Frankfurt (9th)

  • Only 2 losses in 9 matches came within the last 3 matches.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 5 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 matches.
  • Only away loss v 2nd.
  • Only conceded 2 goals once away.
  • 6 of 9 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late 0-0. 0-0 sequences rarely last long.
  • Frankfurt tend to concede so do look for that today albeit without losing (solid away form). Lay Hamburg if Hamburg score first  despite the 3 consecutive score draws.

ITALIAN SERIA A

18:00 - Genoa v Atalanta - 2.48 Atalanta

  • In a day of muddling matches, here is another potential with a 2.48 favourites in this match.
  • 3 consecutive Atalanta wins in head to heads, the last 2 matches 8 goals to no reply.

Genoa (16th)

  • 2 0-1 away wins and a 1-1 in the last 3 matches.
  • Tend to score 2 goals at home v the big guns.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Only 4 over 2.5 goals matches.
  • No win in 7 at home, conceding in those matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Not played any team 11th and lower at home but failed to beat any top 10 team at home.

Atalanta (11th)

  • Only 5 defeats but 4 came away and 3 came within the last 4 away matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • No win in 7 away conceding in those 7.
  • Not played 14th and lower away.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of 7 away matches v 13th and higher.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • It takes research to find out that this is a messy match with far too many questions left unanswered.
  • both teams have failed to win in 7 (home for the home side and away for the away side), conceding in those matches.
  • Both sides have a big gap in form. Genoa not met any team 11th and lower. Would they perform better than they had v top 10?
  • Ditto Atalanta, not played 14th and lower. You'd guess they'd play better v lower ranked teams.
  • A match I will leave alone.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Hearts v Dundee - 1.8 Hearts

  • The home team has won each of the last 4 head to heads.

Hearts (6th)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 0-1-1-1-1-0-1-1 scored at home limits Hearts somewhat. If they concede then that is points dropped.
  • 3 draws and a win last 4 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 losses at home v 2nd and 8th.
  • Draws at home v 9th and lower.
  • Scored first in 5/8 at home.

Dundee FC (10th)

  • 2 wins in 3 matches but only 4 wins all season.
  • A hint at better form. Recent wins v Ross and Rangers and only lost 0-1 to Aberdeen.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • A massive 10 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of away matches.
  • Only 1 away win v 11th. Scored and conceded in all aways v 8th and higher.

Conclusions

  • Hearts will be in trouble if they cannot score that 2nd goal. Dundee are adept at scoring and conceding and could come out of this with a draw?
  • On form, it is logical to lay Hearts if Hearts lead given they cannot yet get that 2nd goal.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home for Hearts suggests a 0-0 at halftime is not a surprise but I would take it on 2nd half.

19:45 - Ross Co v Kilmarnock - 2.5 Ross

  • 1-2 and 0-2 Ross wins in the last 2 head to heads.

Ross Co (11th)

  • 3 defeats in 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 at home.
  • 2 wins only at home v 5th and 9th.
  • Conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • Only led once at halftime at home.
  • Opponents have scored first in 7/9 at home.

Kilmarnock (8th)

  • Only 1 away loss v 5th.
  • Clean sheets away v 10th and 12th.
  • 2 consecutive wins.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • No defeat in 7 away.

Conclusions

  • On form Kilmarnock should be eyeing a positive result. Only 1 away loss and clean sheets v 10th and 12th augurs well v 11th
  • Ross have hit a poor run of form, failed to score last 2 at home and have conceded in their last 9 at home.
  • Opponents tend to score first in Ross home matches but if Ross score first I would look at laying them.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

17:30 - Breda v Twente - 2.6 Breda

  • Yet another match the market cannot predict. Does form provide any clues or is this a match to leave alone?
  • Last head to head was back in 2015.

Breda (15th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 0-0-0-3 goals scored at home. Big change last match.
  • Conceded in their last 7 at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • All home defeats v top 8.
  • Only 1 home match v teams below them, a 2-2  v 16th.
  • 12 goals conceded at home came in the last 1/2 hour of matches.

Twente (18th)

  • Only 3 wins came at home. This is not the Twente who won the title under Schteve 'how you say' McClaren.
  • Only 2 clean sheets but no 0-0.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime.2-1-2-2-2-0-2-4 goals in total before halftime.
  • 3-4-4-2-3-3 goals conceded recently.
  • All defeats away.
  • 8 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Twente are in dire form. This is not the team of old and it is sad to see. They have conceded around 3 goals a game recently but had only 1-0 losses v 12th and 16th.
  • On form Breda could be eyeing a positive result. They have only lost to the top 8.
  • Watch for goals 60th minute onwards if only 1-0/0-1 or 0-0.

19:45 - Zwolle v Az Alkmaar - 2.22 AZ Alkmaar

  • 2 wins and a 1-1 AZ in the last 3 head to heads.

Zwolle (4th)

  • Only 2 defeats v Ajax and PSV. A superb season for PEC Zwolle.
  • 5 wins, a 0-1 loss to PSV (92nd minute goal!),and 1-1 in recent home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only loss at home v 1st.
  • Losses v 1st and 3rd.

AZ Alkmaar (2nd)

  • 7 consecutive wins keeping 4 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime but none at fulltime.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only away loss v 1st.
  • 8 goals scored away last 30 mins of matches.
  • Scored first in 6/7 at home.

Conclusions

  • 2 inform sides and another toughie in a Tough Tuesday.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • I am sorry but I can make a clear argument for either side.

ITALIAN COPPA ITALIA

20:00 - Inter v Pordenone - 1.17 Inter

  • Pordenone are Italian Seria C and play the mightly Inter in the Coppa Italia.
  • Pordenone have 4 consecutive cup wins albeit not Seria A teams.
  • Inter have not won in their last 4 Coppa Italia matches, albeit v Seria A sides.
  • Logic suggests an easy home win today.
  • Team news important for Inter Milan.