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Champions League returns and we take our cues from the first leg. Not the most appealing coupon this evening. Fulham have goals in them. Enough to side with them today? I do think Sevilla have too much European competition experience to allow Leicester to go through in 2 legs. But this is a renewed Leicester with 2 consecutive home 3-1 wins!

17:30 - Sportfreunde Lotte v Dortmund - 1.13 Dortmund

  • I thought this German Cup match was a 2 legged affair. It is not. Sport (for short) have a good German Cup record v Bundesliga teams.
  • Since 2016, they beat Werder Bremen 2-1, and went through on penalties against Bayer Leverkusen. Their last win was 2-0 v 1860 Munich.
  • 3 draws in 4 matches for Dortmund in the cup. They have won the last 2 via penalties via Union Berlin and Hertha Berlin.
  • This lack of form (well for a 1.13 shot I'd expect exemplary form) suggests we lay Dortmund off the bat at such odds. It is unlikely to come off but the cup form suggests possible team changes.
  • I must note that Dortmund don't tend to lose cup matches. We are hoping on a 4th draw in 5 matches.
  • If you are not taken by that, then take your cues from the 1.13 odds which suggest 3/4 goals from Dortmund.

19:45 - Fulham v Blackburn - 1.55 Fulham

  • If there's one thing Fulham have, it's goals as we shall see.
  • 0-1 to Fulham the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 22nd in the English Championship.

Fulham 100% stats

  • A top 6 berth for Fulham with a win today.Blackburn leave the relegation zone with a win.
  • Unbeaten v bottom 3 this season.
  • Scored 3 and 2 v bottom 2 at home.
  • No home 0-0.

Fulham other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches without losing.
  • Scored 2 or 3 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 home matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets kept at home v teams below them in the league.

Blackburn 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Conceded in all aways v top 10.

Blackburn other stats

  • In 9 of the last 13 matches, Blackburn have only conceded 1 goal. A deliberate tactic to tighten defence? BUT in 3 of those 13 matches away, they conceded at least 2 goals.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Only 1 clean sheet away.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Beat Newcastle home and away but the only wins home and away v top 9 teams.
  • 13 of 17 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • If Fulham keep their goalscoring up, then they are the team to be with. Blackburn have obviously focussed on defence but noticeably have conceded 2+ away on 3 occasions recently.
  • Fulham have 2/3 goals in them.
  • A strong both teams to score pattern for both teams and I would be keener to lay Blackburn if Blackburn scored first.
  • Blackburn have kept 9 0-0's at halftime away so note that but do expect 2nd half goals. I would look at 2-1, 3-1 3-2 something like that (cues from the in-play stats).

19:45 - Brentford v Wolves - 2.3 Brentford

  • 3-1 to Wolves in the last head to heads.
  • This is 14th v 20th in the English Championship. Wolves are in a relegation battle. but have a game or 2 in hand over some of the relegation threatened sides.

Brentford 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 18th and lower.

Brentford other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.
  • 3-3-4 scored in recent home matches then 0 last home match.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 12 matches.
  • 11 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Wolverhampton 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Wolverhampton other stats

  • 0-0 and 1-0 win last 2 matches. As with Blackburn, a concerted effort to tighten things at the back?
  • Only 2 defeats in 8 matches v teams 15th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Not a match which greatly appeals. I have tried to find a strong angle and I cannot. I will leave this match alone unless something unravels via the in-play stats.

19:45 - Leicester v Sevilla - 2.28 home and away

  • 2-1 to Sevilla from the first leg of this Champions League match.
  • Leicester qualify with a 1-0 tonight, and are under new management, the Great Bard Mr Shakespeare I think is still at the helm temporarily.
  • 1-0 v Porto, 1-0 v Copenhagen, 2-1 v Club Brugge so far at home for Leicester. Tonight is a real step up. Sevilla are seasoned Europa League competitors, are motoring in the Champions League and are in contention for the title this season in Spain.
  • Leicester were only the second team, after Juventus, to score against Sevilla in the Champions League recently. Quite a feat.
  • Sevilla need an away goal and if scoring first, will require Leicester to score 3 goals.
  • FIRST GOAL KEY tonight.
  • Leicester have seen 2 consecutive home 3-1 wins in the Premiership. If they can perform as they did v Liverpool especially, this tie is not over. My head though says Sevilla simply because they are seasoned competitors in Europe and have reached Europa League finals with regularity.
  • Dare we back 0-0 pre-match given the importance of any first goal?

19:45 - Juventus v Porto - 1.68 Juventus

  • 0-2 to Juventus in the first leg after a Porto 27th minute penalty. We don't know, therefore, how the match would have unfolded had it been 11 v 11 for 90 minutes, and with Porto home advantage.
  • Since September 2016, Juventus have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches. They have a clear advantage today and can tolerate a 0-1 defeat and still go through.
  • Porto need a 0-2 just to retain parity on aggregate.
  • Interestingly Porto did beat Roma 0-3 away, albeit Roma had 2 red cards so another match clouded by red cards.
  • Juventus are far too good for a team from a thoroughly uncompetitive Portugeuse Primera Liga.
  • Remember Juve go through with a 0-0 or 0-1. A Juventus goal should nail this for Juventus.
  • Tough to get a strong angle into the match such as 'lay the XXX if ....'. These are one-off matches.