Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The Estoril v Porto match was abandoned at halftime with fears for the stands at Estoril. My stake is tied up in this match as Estoril lead at halftime. There is a 3-day rule on Betfair regarding a replay. We shall see. On to today, it is F.A.Cup replay day and matches full of holes. The first set of matches saw the favourites rather non-plussed by the results (see how many 0-0's there were).
Team news is unknown at time of writing. If I see Vardy play for Leeds today that will be a green light to favour the Foxes. in the F.A.Cup matches, inplay stats will be key. Better yet an ability to watch the matches will be very beneficial. Marseille and Vitesse's matches are the remaining ones which are most readable for me. If I am online this evening, I will tweet @drtclub. The live chat would be at 18:00 and onwards to the F.A.Cup. Please note the 'if' there!

ENGLISH F.A.CUP

19:45 - West Ham v Shrewsbury - 1.63 West Ham

  • It's 0-0  and a reply at West Ham.
  • The frustration I have in researching this match? a) Moyes new manager has no recent FA Cup history b) the priority for West Ham must surely be Premier League survival c) team changes were obvious for the first match between these 2 players.
  • I have absolutely no pre-match opinion here. I fear that West Ham will not be fully wound up for this match, nor will they be overtly concerned with an exit from the cup.
  • In-play stats are key here, as is team news.
  • 7 shots to 3 in favour of Shrewsbury in the first match, 55% Shrews possession and apparent disinterest from West Ham.

19:45 - Leicester v Fleetwood Town - 1.3 Leicester

  • A 0-0 at Fleetwood saw a much changed Leicester side shy of their first team strikers who, if appearing today, will cope easily with Fleetwood.
  • That is an 'if' of course. As I write I do not have access to the team news.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's now for Leicester. That is a sequence I would be keen to end. I would lay any late 0-0 (85th minute +).
  • I feel that Jamie Vardy, a former Fleetwood player, will get a run out today and if so, that I feel will be the difference between the 2 sides.
  • The first leg inplay stats were very similar indeed. But as I say above, the sight of one J. Vardy should be the difference.

19:45 - Mansfield v Cardiff - 2.18 Cardiff

  • 0-0 first time out sees Mansfield host the high flying Championship side.
  • I am sorry but I cannot provide you with any pre-match commentary here. Again there may be team changes for the better side (Cardiff) which skews matters.
  • 13 shots to 6 in Cardiff's favour in the first match. Apart from that it was a tight match.

19:45 - Sheff Wed v Carlisle - 1.56 Sheff Wed

  • Championship v League Two in this replay of yet another 0-0 first leg result.
  • Looking at the stats from the first match, what catches my eye is the 7-0 corners in Sheff Wed's favour. This is overwhelming for me.
  • Corners show attacking intent.  12 shots to 4 too for Sheff Wed.
  • In this case I will side with the home side on that in-play stats evidence.

20:00 - Reading v Stevenage - 1.56 Reading

  • Championship v League 2 and guess what? Another 0-0 from the first match between these 2.
  • That's 2 consecutive 0-0's . I do tend to take on 0-0's . Long sequences for teams of 0-0 are a rarity. The goal, after all, is goals.
  • 11 corners to 1 for Stevenage in the first match. It looks as if Stevenage were well up for the cup.
  • 8 shots to 6 saw a balanced match shots wise.
  • The market expects Reading to dominate with home advantage. Again there is little I can relay pre-match because Reading may make first team changes which clouds matters.
  • The difference between Championship and League 2 is obvious though.

FRENCH LIGUE 1

18:00 - Bordeaux v Caen - 1.93 Bordeaux

  • 0-0, Bordeaux win, Caen win in the last 3 head to heads.

Bordeaux (13th)

  • Only 2 wins in 13 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 win v teams above them in the league.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Caen (12th)

  • 4 losses and 2 0-0's in the last 6 matches.
  • 4 losses and a draw last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away.
  • All away defeats bar 1 came v top 8 teams. Easier assignment today outside of the top 8?
  • 11 of 14 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Opponents scored first in 6/9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • This is probably a match I will leave alone. Bordeaux have only 2 wins in 13 matches and only 1 win in 6 home matches and are odds on favourites.
  • Caen are having trouble scoring but tend to lose away v top 8 teams.
  • I would lay any late 0-0 given Bordeaux have 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

18:00 - Marseille v Strasbourg - 1.31 Marseille

  • 3-3 the last time these 2 met.

Marseille (4th)

  • 3 consecutive defeats.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 14 matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 5 1-0 leads at halftime at home.
  • Unbeaten home and away v 11th and lower.
  • 14 of 21 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 7/9 at home.

Strasbourg (11th)

  • 2 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • 3-0 and 4-0 losses away v 2nd and 3rd.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 17 of 20 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Strasbourg have failed to score in 2 consecutive defeats now and indeed failed to score away v top 3 in defeats. They meet 4th placed today and I think they are heading to a defeat.
  • Although Marseille are losing recently, at home, they have 4 consecutive wins and have scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on over 50% 1-0 scorelines for Marseille at home.
  • If we see a 0-0 at halftime, I would expect Marseille to score. Look at Strasbourg's concession rate away 2nd half.

20:00 - Monaco v Nice - 1.74 Monaco

  • This is a Cote D'Azur derby of sorts.
  • Monaco won the last 2 home head to heads.

Monaco (2nd)

  • 5 wins in 6 matches at home.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches at home.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss v 1st in the league.
  • 14 goals scored in either half at home.
  • Led at halftime in 7/10 matches at home.

Nice (6th)

  • 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches.
  • 2 wins and 2 draws away last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 3 away wins v 5h, 10th and 19th.
  • Conceded 5 goals in the first 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Note that this is a derby match and the last league match saw a 4-0 Nice win.
  • Based on form, I would lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Look at Monaco at home.
  • I would lay any late 0-0.
  • Ignoring the derby aspect (and really in a derby form could be thrown out of the window), Monaco should score.
  • Monaco have the better form but will Nice play above themselves?

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Sparta Rotterdam v Vitesse - 2.12 Vitesse

  • Vitesse have won the last 3 head to heads.

Sparta Rotterdam (18th and bottom)

  • 5 consecutive defeats.
  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home. Only 1 0-0.
  • Not beaten any top 12 side home or away.
  • Failed to score 2 goals in all matches v top 10.

Vitesse

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Scored and conceded undefeated home and away v bottom 5 teams.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form I have to look to Vitesse not losing.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Vitesse may score and concede but not lose. That's what performances v bottom 5 tells us.