Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

2 very obvious favourites in the Premiership this evening. Man City may be the team who labour based on their home draws v top 10 sides. We shall see. Motivated v un-motivated tonight. I am also looking at the Norwegian Eliteserien. There may not be any strong patterns and form after 8 matches but I hope there is something below to work with. It is a league which is featured at www.soccerstats.com so will serve us well this summer.
I put up a couple of trades on Twitter yesterday. 1.06 Bedene was backable at evens and won the match. David Goffin lost the first set and in his case I layed his opponent 2-0 set betting after winning the first set. Goffin won the next set despite trading over evens. I will try and tweet other tennis trades today IF indeed there are any. I cannot give a specific time as tennis tends rarely to follow a fixed schedule.

19:45 - Arsenal v Sunderland - 1.12 Arsenal

  • Before even looking at the odds, I would concur with Arsenal scoring 3/4 goals minimum today and winning at a canter.
  • They have been superb in their push for 3rd spot. Another win beckons today and 2+ goals.
  • No research is necessary as we get a snapshot of Arsenal through 5 wins in 6, the only loss in the North London Derby.
  • Sunderland have failed to score in 12 of their last 15 matches, and are relegated.
  • A simple match to trade. Expect a goal before halftime for Arsenal. Expect 3/4 goals at least today if they are as solid as they have been in their last 3 matches.

20:00 - Man City v West Brom - 1.17 Man City

  • Another emphatic market and another battle for 4th with City keen to keep 4th spot at least. City though are eyeing 3rd spot with a game in hand and only 1 point behind Liverpool.
  • West Brom have done little since hitting 40 points.
  • City have failed to score in only 5 matches so it really would be anomolous were West Brom to keep them out, and at the Etihad.
  • DDWDW - D=Draw, W=Win in the recent home matches.
  • Thankfully City meet a West Brom side in holiday mode. They have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 matches. They have conceded 2 goals at least in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • City's only concern is their poor home form v top 9 teams. 5 draws, a loss and a win v top 9 for City will leave them on tenterhooks today.
  • West Brom though have not beaten any top 7 side away.
  • City have conceded 13 of their 16 goals at home 2nd half so if they are to concede it is more likely to be 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Motivated v un-motivated today. This really should be a home win. 1.17 odds tells us the market expects 3/4 goals from City bare minimum. But City form v top 9 tells us that they would be better focusing on avoiding the draw, 5 of them v top 9.
  • I enter this match in expectation that top 3 appeals to City enough for them to get the win. Luckily they meet a West Brom team who have the beach towels out and can't even be bothered scoring any more!

19:45 - Reading v Fulham - 2.44 Fulham

  • It's 1-1 from the first leg of this English Championship play-off semi-final and we made a nice profit backing 0-0 and laying it off at halftime.
  • I would not be employing that tactic today. It's D-Day today. By the close of play, one of these 2 will be in the play-off final.
  • Fulham were clearly the statistically best side judging by the in-play stats from the First Leg. At 0-1 down, Fulham were confident equalisers.
  • Is this enough to side with Fulham and their proven goalscoring ability throughout the season, for us to at least expect Fulham not to lose today?

This is the Norwegian Eliteserien. The season is still young but I want to get used to seeing the teams match after match so I can get a feel for their ebbs and flows. It is a good league to trade over the summer.

17:00 - Viking v Aalesunds - 1.94 Viking

  • 2-3 Aalesund in the most recent head to head.
  • Both teams scored in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 16th (bottom) and 9th after 8 games.
  • Only 1 win for VIking was v 2nd placed Odd at home. They have failed to score in 5 of their 8 matches this season.
  • 3 losses and that win v Odd for Viking at home.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches for Aalesunds sees them with the most immediate better form.
  • Aalesund recently look good away, 1-1, 0-0 v Rosenborg and 0-1 v Molde. Tight and not conceding last 2 away.
  • Aalesund have only had 1 0-0 at halftime all season.

Conclusions

  • Viking's win v Odd at home was, frankly, odd. They have failed to score in 5 matches this season and are on a 2 match losing run.
  • Aalesund's form looks more solid, albeit away they are keeping it tight, not scoring too many but not conceding either.
  • I would have to side with Aalesund not to lose.
  • Based on Aalesund only, we lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Haugesund v Odds BK - 2.46 Haugesund

  • Haugesund won the last home head to head but that was sandwiched between 2 Odd 2-1 wins.
  • This is 8th v 2nd after 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's is an angle for us today. Oppose a 3rd consecutive 0-0.
  • Haugesund have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 captures that run of 0-0's for Haugesund.
  • Odd are yet to draw this season which furthers the laying the late 0-0 idea.
  • 3 consecutive wins for Odd. Odd have been poor away, scoring only 0-0-0-1 goals, winning the last match 0-1.

Conclusions

  • I may back 0-0 here pre match at its highest point and lay off at halftime. Haugesund 0-0's at home and Odd trouble scoring away.
  • Then 2nd half I would look at laying 0-0 if still 0-0 at halftime. And hope that sequence ends and Odd avoid another draw.
  • Lay any late draw in that case.

17:00 - Brann v Sandefjord - 1.44 Brann

  • 3-2 and 1-4 Brann in the last head to heads.
  • This is 3rd v 6th after 8 matches.
  • Brann are yet to meet top 6 (after 8 matches) but at home have 3 wins and a 1-1, scoring 3+ in those wins.
  • At such short odds today, the market expects this fine home form to break into the top 6.
  • Brann have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 and scored and conceded in 3 of their 4 home matches.
  • Sandefjord have had a good start too with 4 wins, all v teams below them in the league.
  • 2-2-0-3-2-2 scored in recent matches for Sandefjord. They have only played one team above them in the league so put that good recent form into context.

Conclusions

  • Brann look solid at home and the market expects another win today. Do watch Brann though, scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 matches. It must be said though that they are yet to play a team above them in the league away from home.
  • Both teams could score today with Brann not losing. If Brann were to get those scoring boots on, then logic tells us to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

17:00 - Molde v Sogndal - 1.45 Molde

  • 0-0 last head to head. this is 7th v 13th after 8 matches.
  • No win in 4 for Molde, 2 draws and 2 defeats yet they are strong favourites today.
  • 2 home wins ended with a 0-1 for Molde.
  • Sogndal have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches and in their last 3 aways. Is this why Molde are strong favs?
  • Sogndal have goals in them at home but dry up away and have conceded 3 goals on 3 occasions away.

Conclusions

  • Molde have shown winning form v bottom 3rd sides and are expected to inflict another defeat on a goal shy Sogndal who have scored 4 goals in 2 home matches but only 1 goal in 4 away matches.
  • So side with the market despite Molde not winning in 4 matches. Their 2 home wins though score 6 goals scored.
  • Lay the late 0-0 and oppose any Sogndal win.

17:00 - Valerenga v Kristiansund - 1.44 Valerenga

  • No head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 14th after 8 matches.
  • Valerenga have failed to score only once this season.
  • They have only 1 home loss in 4.
  • Wins at home v 13th and 16th hints at an ability to beat 14th?
  • Kristiansund I am guessing are newly promoted.
  • Their 3 away defeats have come v current top 6 sides and they drew 1-1 away v 11th.
  • A home win and 2 consecutive 1-1 draws sees Kristiansund putting a run together.
  • Like Valerenga Kristiansund may be more at home with those teams 10th and lower where they are unbeaten.

Conclusions

  • Angles? Do expect a goal from Valerenga at some point.
  • Both sides play better v the teams 10th and lower (albeit after 8 matches played - so the worst teams after 8 matches).
  • I would lay any late 1-1 draw and hope that Kristiansund sequence ends.

17:00 - Lillestrom v Sarpsborg - 2.64 Lillestrom

  • Lillestrom at home have tended to win head to heads.
  • This is 15th v 4th. A poor start from Lillestrom after 8 matches.
  • Lillestrom failed to score in 3 of 4 matches, all losses at home. Their sole win at home was v 6th. Still, against the teams currently top 9, it is 5 defeats and a 2-1 win.
  • Sarpsborg are 4th. Unbeaten v 9th and lower.
  • They did score and concede in 4 of those unbeaten matches.

Conclusions

  • On form both teams could score and Sarpsborg not lose. I suppose the market is not committed to either side because of Lillestrom's strong history of winning at home in head to heads, although this time they failed to score in 3 at home, all defeats.

19:00 - Rosenborg v Tromso - 1.32 Rosenborg

  • Rosenborg remain unbeaten this season and surprised with a 0-0 last match. Win, Win, 0-0, Win at home for Rosenborg.
  • 1-2 and 3-1 Rosenborg in the latest head to heads. Both teams have tended to score.
  • Tromso this season have 3 defeats and 2 draws home and away v 9th and higher in the league.
  • They did only lose 1-0 to 2nd away drew 1-1 with 4th away so might give Rosenborg a work out.

Conclusions

  • We enter this match expecting Rosenborg not to lose.
  • Both teams have scored historically so  note that, especially if Tromso score or it is a very tight 1-0 Rosenborg late on (there have been 1-1's in recent head to heads).
  • Can Rosenborg replicate recent 3-1/ 2-1 wins v Tromso or will Tromso be as resilient as their 1-0 loss away to 2nd suggests?
  • I would lay any late 0-0.

19:00 - Stromgodset v Stabaek - 2 Stromgodset

  • 2-2 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 12th v 5th after 8 matches.
  • 3-1, 1-1, 1-0, 1-1 at home is consistent enough for Stroms but requires a good defence, particularly the last 3 matches where they did not concede more than 1 goal in a match.
  • Only the 1 clean sheet for Stroms does see them vulnerable.
  • Only 2 wins all season for Stroms did come at home so they will be happier at home this season you feel.
  • Stabaek began the season scoring 3-1-2-3-3 goals but lately, they have scored only 0-1-0. They did keep Rosenborg to a 0-0 latest which is a good display defensively.
  • Stabaek did beat 11th placed Tromso 0-3 but lost 4-1 to 13th away.

Conclusions

  • I am not too keen on this match. Stroms patterns? Not conceding 2 goals at home. It may come off given the goals have dried up for Stabaek in their last 3 matches. Stabaek obviously have a threat but it has gone A.W.O.L.
  • Will Stroms concede has they have only kept one clean sheet?
  • No other angles for me. Tough to read.