Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A rare venture to English League One and Scottish Championship last night. I wonder on a strict reading of the research, did you lay a Queen of the South 0-2 lead, because 'Dundee United tend to consistently score 2+ goals v top 7'? The scoreline went from 0-2 to 2-2 and then Queen of the South got a late winner.
Today is another return to the lower leagues. We are plagued with International Friendlies today, and the clash the World has been waiting for. World Cup winners-elect Andorra are away to Football Titans Leichtenstein in a match which will captivate Television audiences throughout the World.
The Euro Under 19 and Under 17 Championships see a whole raft of matches throughout the day, and if I was to play these, I would take my cues from the pre-match odds, and add in the in-play stats. The best in-play stats provider for free is https://mobile.bet365.com/ and will be your friend throughout the International Friendlies period where in-play stats play a greater part in decision making. The Bet365 in-play stats provide us with shots on target, off target and corners and these 3, for me, are the best indicators.
Onto today and it is a return to English League One, English League Two and the English National League (I note Hartlepool are there). I will also do a shorties list today at DRT Facebook as that will pick out the matches the market has installed a short priced favourite in.

ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

19:45 - Walsall v Wigan Athletic - 1.73 Wigan

  • 1-2 and 2-0 Wigan last 2 head to heads.

Walsall (17th)

  • 4 losses in 5 matches.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • Conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 3 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten top 4. Scored and conceded at home v top 3 in 2 1-2 losses and a 1-1 draw.

Wigan (3rd)

  • Only 2 defeats since 21st November 2017.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 away.
  • 4 0-0's at halftime away (25%).
  • 100% wins away v 15th and lower.
  • 22 of 36 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • We do tend to find in these lesser leagues an ability for strugglers to beat the form sides. Walsall note have beaten 5th and 6th at home but against the top 4, they are unlikely to score more than 1 goal and unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
  • It does all point to Wigan worst case draw today. Wigan have been emphatic v 15th and lower away, with 100% wins. Expect that today and take on any Walsall lead.

ENGLISH LEAGUE TWO

19:45 - Crawley Town v Wycombe Wanderers - 2.28 Wycombe

  • 1-2 Crawley and 4-0 Wycombe last 2 head to heads.

Crawley Town (12th)

  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • Scored and conceded in 8 of their last 10 matches.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home (50%).
  • Only 1 loss at home v top 8 - beat 1st, 5th, 6th, 8th at home.
  • But lost at home v 10th-14th inclusive. Reliable?
  • 64% of goals scored and 71% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Wycombe (4th)

  • Only 1 win in 4.
  • 5 wins and a draw last 6 away.
  • Scored in their last 7 away.
  • Only 2 losses home and away v 10th and lower came v 1 team.
  • Scored 2/3 goals away in 9 of 12 matches v 10th and lower.

Conclusions

  • No surprise a 0-0 at halftime but as with the other League One match yesterday, I'd take it on.
  • Crawley have a surprisingly good record at home v top 6, beating 5th, 6th and 8th but are unreliable i.e. they lost to 10th-14th at home.
  • Wycombe at their best should be scoring 2/3 goals today. Faith in that consistent away form v 10th and lower for Wycombe?
  • Welcome to the Lower Leagues!!

ENGLISH NATIONAL LEAGUE

Barrow v Hartlepool - 2.08 Barrow

  • 1-0 Hartlepool last head to head.

Barrow (19th)

  • Only 3 defeats in 11 matches.
  • 4 1-1 draws and a 1-2 loss last 5 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 12 at home.
  • No win in 8 at home.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home (29%).
  • Poor stuff v fellow strugglers. Not beaten a team below them in the league home or away.

Hartlepool (20th)

  • Only 1 win in 16 matches.
  • 2 consecutive draws.
  • 3-4-2-4-1-4-2-2 goals conceded in recent away matches.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away (37%).
  • Unbeaten v 16th and lower - this is where they collect their points.
  • 15 of 22 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I disagree with the market. How on earth than a side with no win in 8 at home, failing to beat any side below them home or away, be favourite? Particularly when we note Hartlepool excel v 16th and lower. I would have to lay Barrow if Barrow lead today. Based on form and not the market.