Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Review of yesterday’s matches.

Soligorsk scored first yesterday. No surprise there if you read the research. Vitebsk led 2-1 during this match. That was a surprise as I mentioned. Did you lay Vitebsk? If so, then well done. 2-2 it ended. I did say that Soligorsk should not lose today. 2 sequences ended yesterday in BATE's match. They ended their run of 10 clean sheets, and ended a run of 2 score draws at Naftan. 1-2 it ended. Inter Turku led 2-0 at halftime. No DRT there. 3-1 it ended. Gnistan v Atlantis ended 1-1. Gnistan scored first as I expected. So no DRT there. Good research in the HJK Helsinki match which I took advantage of. 0-0 at halftime was not unexpected, if you read my research. I backed HJK 2nd half. Not huge odds, but research points to Jaro conceding first away and HJK scoring overwhelmingly at home 2nd half. A red card helped matters and the scoreline ended 4-0. PS Kemi simply outscored MP as I imagined. Laying the 0-0 halftime score was a success. 2-1 it ended. Ljungskile v Gais was a tough match to get a handle on. Ljungskile led 2-0 at halftime. 2-2 it was 2nd half. Did you lay the DESMOND TUTU? If so, collect. 3-2 it ended. Well done England women. Came back from 1-0 down to win 1-2. I did not trade the match but raise a glass to the ladies. On to today...

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches.

Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised.

Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are not the pre-market favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds).

Lay the underdog scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market, especially in BANKER matches.

Do note matches where one team is red carded. The opponents do tend to score next more often than not.

Not a coupon to get the heart beating today I'm afraid.

1:30pm - Geylang International v Singapore Rec Club  - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • this is the Singapore League Cup between  7th in the Singapore Premier League and an away side in an un-named league.

Geylang

  • Only 3 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 home matches 3-0-3-2-2 scored in recent home matches
  • Only 1 loss in 13 matches in the cup.
  • Unbeaten in their last 8 home cup matches. 5 clean sheets in those matches.

Singapore Rec Club

  • Limited form for this team. In 2014 in the League cup, they lost 1-0, 2-0, 2-0 to Premier League matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Limited form for the away side.  The odds look logically correct here.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:30pm - Hougang Utd v Brunei DPMM FC - 1.48 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Singapore League Cup between 9th and 3rd in the Singapore Premier League.
  • 2-3 DPMM, 2-2, 2-3 DPMM in the last 3 head to heads.

Hougang

  • Only 1 win in 13 matches in all competitions.
  • Only 1 win in 8 home matches was a 1-0
  • Only 2 wins in 9 League Cup matches.
  • Lost 2-3 to DPMM in the cup in 2014
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home cup matches.

Brunei

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches, came in the last 3 matches .
  • Only 2 losses in 16 away matches and lost their last away match.
  • Only 1 loss in 9 cup matches
  • Only 1 losses in 11 away matches were against the same side in the cup

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds look right here. Lay any side 2-0 up.
  • Back 2-2 pre match given the head to heads? Hougang should not win today and that is my angle in.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2pm - Khimki v Arsenal Tula - 1.58 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly between 4th in the 2. Division League and Arsenal Tula from the FNL league in Russia.
  • Again, I am not going to research this match, suffice to say that the market has logically gone with the FNL league side. Dare we favour Arsenal Tula too?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:30pm - Pakhtakor v Shurtan - 1.3 home

Standout Stats

  • Ahh, the Uzbekistan Cup, a competition I, erm, Look forward to with great relish every year.
  • This is 1st v 10th in the PFL league.
  • In 2015, Shurtan won 2-1 in what looks like the first leg of the cup.
  • The winner came in the 89th minute which suggests luck rather than being a deserved hard-fought win.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Ahhh, the Uzbekistan Cup. File under " I haven't got a scooby doo" The markets are likely to be highly illiquid. THe market expects the home side to fight back today.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:30pm - OPS v JBK  - 1.52 home

Standout Stats

  • 3-1 OPS, 0-1 OPS, 1-3 JBK, 1-2 OPS in head to heads.
  • This is 5th v 10th of 10 in the Finnish KakkonenNorth

OPS

  • Scored in their last 4 at home and conceded in their last 2 at home.
  • Have conceded in their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 win in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet

JBK

  • No win in 5 away and 5 overall
  • Have conceded in their last 5 away matches
  • Only 1 win
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets
  • Have only scored 2 goals once.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • If JBK cannot score more than a single goal, then they are obviously to be layed if scoring first. WIth OPS only keeping one clean sheet v JBK's 2 clean sheets I would ordinarily put forward Both teams to Score. But JBK have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • THis leaves me with the afore-mentioned lay of JBK if they score first as my only angle in.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5:30pm - St Gallen v Austria Lustenau - 1.7 home

Standout Stats

  • This is a friendly and really not a match I want to research or trade, unless it is with the help of in-play stats.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

5:45pm - IK Frej v Brommapojkarna - 2.2 home

Standout Stats

  • 1-5 for Bromma in a 2014 cup match.
  • This is 10th v 16th in the Swedish Superettan.

Frej

  • 2 match home winning streak
  • No defeat in 5 at home
  • 5 consecutive home clean sheets
  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 1st.
  • That was the only goal concession at home
  • All under 1.5 goals at home
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home

Bromma

  • 6 match losing streak away
  • Only 1 win this season
  • Only 1 clean sheet
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime
  • All losses away
  • Opponents tend to score first away
  • Opponents have led at halftime in 5 of 6 away matches

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Head to heads are interesting, but on season-long form, I must oppose Bromma here. This could be a 0-0 tussle for a while, given Bromma's troubles scoring and Frej's under 1.5 goals at home. Only 1 clean sheet for Bromma suggests they will concede, and away form suggests they concede first. Frej could lead at halftime. Lay the 0-0 halftime score but do delay given these poor goals stats. The odds are very strange today. 2.2 for the home side. Is this down to that head to head? Or the poor record for scoring at home for Frej. Reliance on clean sheets is a bit one-dimensional. I would go with the form today though and be with Frej
--------------------------------------------------------------------

6pm - FK Suduva v Zalgiris - 1.48 away

Standout Stats

  • Zalgiris are unbeaten in 7 consecutive head to heads. 1-0, 2-3 (cup matches), 2-0 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 1st in the Lithuanian A Lyga league.

Suduva

  • No draw in 5 matches.
  • 2 losses at home were 0-1.
  • Failed to score in 3 matches.
  • Only 2 wins in 5 home matches.
  • No 0-0

Zalgiris

  • No win in 2 away matches.
  • Scored in their last 9 away matches and last 16 overall
  • Only 2 losses. 2-1 and 4-2. The last 2 matches have been 4-2 and 2-2.
  • 6-4-2-2 scored in the last 4 away matches
  • 6-6-4-4-4-2-2 sored in their last 7 matches
  • Scored in all matches
  • No 0-0

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • The odds are right here and Zalgiris are set up to outscore Suduva today. Zalgiris could score 2+ goals today. Both teams could score today. Zalgiris have alarmingly conceded 2 goals in each of their last 2 matches. If Suduva score first, lay them. If Zalgiris lead 0-2, speculatively lay them incase they start conceding again.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Czech Republic U21 v Germany U21 - 1.82 away

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent head to head was a 1-1 in 2014.
  • This is a UEFA U21 Championship match being played in Prague. So a home match for the Czechs.
  • Only 2 matches in 2015's Championship for both sides. The Czechs lost 1-2 to Denmark and beat Serbia 0-4.
  • The Germans drew 1-1 with Serbia and beat Denmark 3-0. Only 2 losses for the Germans in this competition since 2010. They are unbeaten in 13 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • There is collateral form with the Danes here but then we can argue with the Serbs that the Czech were more impressive than a struggling German side.
  • On long term form, I would have to be with the Germans today and lay the Czechs if they score first. Although I do note we have little 2015 UEFA form to work with.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:45pm - Denmark U21 v Serbia U21 - 2.42 home

Standout Stats

  • These 2 have not met since 2012
  • This is the UEFA U21 Championship.
  • The Danes beat the Czechs 1-2 and lost 3-0 to Germany.
  • The Serbs drew 1-1 with Germany and lost 0-4 to the Czechs.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Both sides have conceded in their 2 matches so far this 2015. I am, though, going to side with the market and shrug my shoulders. This is not a match I can get a handle on and will therefore leave alone.