Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

16:30 - FC Inter v PS Kemi - 1.42 FC Inter

  • 0-0 in the last head to head.
  • This is 4th v 11th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga after 7 and 6 matches.

FC Inter

  • The full pack at home - Win, Draw, Loss.
  • Only 1 clean sheet and scored in all bar one match.
  • Losses this season came v the current 2nd and 3rd. Wins this season came v the current 7th, 9th and 12th.

PS Kemi

  • Only 1 win.
  • 4 consecutive defeats.
  • Conceded 3 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.

Conclusions

  • Early in the season but clearly PS Kemi are struggling and if leading in this match, they must be opposed.
  • FC Inter have seen a goal at least in all bar 1 match before halftime.

16:30 - HIFK v HJK Helsinki - 1.38 HJK

  • 0-0 and 2-1 for HIFK in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 10th v 1st in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

HIFK

  • Only 1 win.
  • Have scored more than 1 goal in a match only once, and still just drew.
  • Not yet played top 2.
  • Scored and conceded v current 3rd, 5th and 6th.
  • Not conceded in both halves this season.

HJK Helsinki

  • Only 1 defeat.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 7 consecutive 1-0 scorelines before halftime.
  • Only loss this season was away v 2nd.
  • Beaten 11th and 12th away and play 10th today.

Conclusions

  • HIFK for me have trouble scoring that 2nd goal which tells us they should be layed if scoring first on the hope this pattern continues.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • I expect an HJK win. Their sole loss was v 2nd and they have beaten 2 of the bottom 3 and play the 3rd today.

16:30 - IFK Mariehamn v Lahti - 2.1 IFK

  • 1-1 and 0-2 IFK in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 8th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga after 7 matches.

IFK

  • Only 1 clean sheet and failed to score only once. Hence we see 4 1-1 scorelines.
  • Unbeaten at home with 2 wins and 2 1-1 draws.
  • Only 1 loss came away.
  • The 2 wins this season came at home v 11th and 12th.
  • No 0-0 this season.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Lahti

  • Scored 2 goals in a match only once and that was an 89th minute goal.
  • Like IFK, have failed to score only once and kept only 1 clean sheet.
  • 3 1-1 draws.
  • Conceded 1 goal in each away match. 2 1-1 draws, a 1-0 loss and a 1-2 win.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • 2 mid-table teams early doors in the Finnish League.
  • Patterns? Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams to score is a logical leap here given both sides have failed to score only once and only kept the one clean sheet.
  • IFK have had 100% matches with total of at least 2 goals so look to that today as well.
  • If Lahti score first and it remains 0-1 into 2nd half, I will lay Lahti. IFK are strong 2nd half goal scorers at home.

18:00 - GAIS v Gefle - 1.89 GAIS

  • The last head to head was in the cup.
  • This is 12th v 16th in the Swedish Superettan.

GAIS

  • Loss, Draw, Win at home. They failed to score in 2 matches.
  • Not played bottom 2 yet.

Gefle

  • 4 consecutive defeats and scored and conceded in all bar 2 matches.
  • Only 1 win was a 1-0 at home.
  • Failed to score only once. Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2-2-1 goals scored in the last 3 matches without winning.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Gefle are conceding 2 goals regularly while scoring so there is an angle. They look layable if leading.
  • Both teams are highly likely to score despite GAIS failing to score in 2 at home.

19:45 - Bohemians v Limerick - 2.36 Limerick

  • 0-1 Bohemians in the last head to head.
  • This is 7th v 6th in the Irish Premier Division after 14 matches.

Bohemians

  • Only 1 draw.
  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches saw 6 defeats.
  • 3 defeats in their last 4 home matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • 2 wins at home, a 3-2 v 3rd and a 2-0 v 11th.
  • 2-2-4-2-4 goals conceded at home v top 8 teams.
  • No 0-0.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.

Limerick

  • No win in 6 saw 4 1-1 draws.
  • 2 away losses v 2nd and 10th.
  • Only scored 2 goals once in an away match.
  • No 0-0.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Not a match I can get a handle on. Both sides are conceding and Bohemians conceding more than Limerick. Were I to have to make a choice (and I can pick and choose my battles), I would lay a 1-1 or lay a 1-0 Bohs lead given Bohs have conceded 2 goals so consistently at home.

19:45 - Drogheda v Bray - 1.83 Bray

  • 0-1 Bray in the last head to head.
  • This is 12th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.

Drogheda

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 3 at home, albeit the last 2 matches were score draws.
  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats v top 4 so far, albeit 4 of the defeats came away.

Bray

  • Only 1 draw.
  • 2-2-2-3-3-1-3 goals scored away - that is consistent.
  • 3 wins in 4 away matches, only beaten by Cork.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • No away draw.
  • All wins in 3 matches played v bottom 2 this season.

Conclusions

  • I would have expected Bray's odds to be shorter. Drogs have only 2 wins in their last 12 matches so are immediately opposable.
  • Expect Bray to score at least 2 goals today? A consistent away pattern. Do note they have 2 3-2 losses so are scoring 2 goals even in defeat away.
  • If Bray concede they should outscore.

19:45 - Dundalk v Derry - 1.52 Dundalk

  • 3-1 Derry in the last head to head must be described as a shock win given today's odds.
  • This is 2nd v 4th in the Irish Premier Division.

Dundalk

  • No draw this season.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Half of matches this season saw a clean sheet.
  • All wins bar a loss v 3rd at home.
  • Have lost all 3 matches v top 3 scoring in each defeat.

Derry

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches. 5 of those matches were draws.
  • Only away win v 1st in the league.
  • No win in 4 away.

Conclusions

  • The market has spoken. It does not expect Dundalk to lose, despite losing to all top 4 teams this season, including Derry.
  • Derry have no win in 4 away and Dundalk have all wins bar that loss v Derry at home. Lay Derry if Derry score first.....or do you smell a Derry double?

Tennis

I do prefer major tournaments as we can assume 100% effort. The Tournaments on show at the moment are not major tournaments. These tournaments are warm-ups for the French Open. I will note some matches that catch the eye. I am trying a new format with tennis and dipping my toe in to the research. It is basic research based only on www.matchstat.com but I hope (and will see with hindsight) that it will be useful. As I practice research I'll get to know the website better and be able to get better I hope as research evolves.

LYON

Carlos Berlocq v Tennys Sandgren - 1.33 Berlocq

  • 62nd v 136th in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Sandgren is a Challenger Tour player.
  • Berlocq recently reached the round of 32 in the Roma Masters but has been as far as round of 16 Estoril, round of 64 Barcelona and round of 32 Monte Carlo.
  • Recent losses to players ranked 13th, 23rd, 66th and 19th.

Conclusions

  • Berlocq should feel confident here today. it takes pretty much a top 25 player to beat him recently.
  • Sandgren recently lost to Kyle Edmund, 42nd in ranking but should not win a set.
  • Expect a 2-0 and react otherwise if Sandgren wins first set.

Thiago Montero v Kyle Edmund - 1.43 Edmund

  • 80th v 42nd in the rankings.
  • No head to heads.
  • Both players have been playing main tour events.
  • A great quarter final in Rio for the Brazilian Montero was not unexpected but since then he has been knocked out in round of 32, 2 rounds of 128, round of 16, round of 64, round of 32 and did not even get out of the qualifiers in Madrid.
  • Recently beaten by 47th ranked Florian Mayer. Montero was recently beaten by Brit Daniel Evans in 3 sets, 2 were tie breakers. Daniel Evans is 43rd so a good yardstick.
  • Edmund went through qualifiers to get here. Has been beaten by a good set of players in Nadal, Thiem, and Del Potro.

Conclusions

  • Montero took Daniel Evans to 3 sets and lost. We could see that today. Do not be surprised if Montero wins a set but exxpect an Edmund win. He has played top players albeit in defeat of late so an unlucky run for Kyle. We may see a tie breaker today. Dare we lay the first set winner?

Granollers v Del Potro - 1.16 Del Potro

  • Granollers won in 2011.
  • This is 65th v 33rd. In context, Del Potro is coming back from injury. His ranking is 'renewed' and is rising.
  • Here is a list of Granollers recent matches where L = Loss, and W = Win - LLLWLLLLLLWLLL.
  • Del Potro has lost to Raonic, Djokovic, Djokovic, Federer and Djokovic again. It takes a good 'un to beat Del Potro.

Conclusions

  • Worth researching a 1.16 shot in order to find potential problems. I see none with Del Potro and expect 2-0 set betting. Any rise in odds above 1.16 I would back - they might come from a tie breaker. There is nothing in Granollers form to suggest he can challenge Del Potro today.

WTA Nurnberg

Kiki Bertens v Gerlach - 1.04 Bertens

  • 20th v 580th in the rankings. Old Beefy Curtains is 1st in the seeding here I think.
  • She went through a purple patch last year, I remember well, and reached the Quarter Finals in Madrid and Semi-finals in Rome.
  • Gerlach plays almost exclusively in 15K events.

Conclusions

  • Beefy Curtains must be layed at 1.05 despite her superb form. It is a lay to nothing. This is women's tennis. Expectation is for a 2-0 and any rise in odds to 1.2 or higher for Bertens must be pounced on from my perspective.
  • Let's hope Gerlach plays above herself in her home town event.

Annika Beck v Lena Rueffer - 1.24 Beck

  • 63rd v 769th in the rankings. No head to heads.
  • Right off the bat, I think Beck's odds are high considering she is playing 769th in the world!
  • Beck is German so we can expect 100% effort.
  • 3 consecutive defeats for Beck and poor form all around.
  • Rueffer took Ostapenko (50th) to a tie breaker 2nd set in Stuttgart.

Conclusions

  • Annika Beck for me is not an ultra strong favourite here. Do note that if Beck wins the first set we might see a Rueffer reaction. You may get short odds about laying Beck 1-0 sets up and hope Rueffer take Beck as close as she took 50th ranked Ostapenko recently in the 2nd set.

Katharina Hobgarski v Laura Siegmund - 1.1 Siegemund

  • 294th v 49th in the rankings.
  • 2-0 set win for Siegemund as recently as November 2015.
  • These are 2 Germans playing in Germany.
  • Recent losses for Siegmund v 5th and 23rd and won in Stuttgart so Laura should be fully wound up here.

Conclusions

  • Expect 2-0. Hob is German and may play above herself. Again react if anything other than a comprehensive Siegmund win.

Geneva Open

Struff v Stebe - 1.18 Struff

  • 52nd v 322nd in the rankings.
  • Head to heads back in 2011.
  • 18th, 21st and 27th have beaten Struff recently so he has been in good enough form and lost to expected players in the rankings.
  • 321st, 158th, is the kind of rankings Stebe has been losing to.

Conclusions

  • Nothing in Stebe's form to suggest anything other than struggles. Losing regularly to triple figured ranked players.

Steve Johnson v Stephane Robert - 1.31 Johnson

  • 25th v 92nd in the rankings.
  • Straight set win for Johnson in 2017 hard court head to head.
  • Steve Johnson won in Houston beating Belluci in the Final who beat Robert recently in Miami. Good collateral form?
  • Prior to that loss, Robert played Federer and Goffin and lost so we haven't really seen Robert let loose as he is stopped in tournaments by better ranked players.

Conclusions

  • Steve Johnson may have the momentum from his win of the Houston tournament. Very recent collateral form though Belluci. I don't expect Johnson to lose 2-0.

Kukushkin v Nishikori - 1.15 Nishikori

  • 76th v 7th in the rankings.
  • 7-0 in head to heads for Nishikori.
  • Straight set wins in 2016 head to heads for Nishikori.
  • A slight concern with Nishikori retiring in the Madrid masters. Does he have a niggling injury? He did lose against Del Potro but the first set was a tie breaker.
  • Kukushkin in Madrid took the likes of De La Nova, Coric, and Ferrer to tie breakers in the first set. Will Kukushkin offer resistance?

Conclusions

  • Let's hope Kukushkin is as up for it as he was in Madrid with those tie breaker first sets. If you think that will happen, Nishikori are layable off the bat at 1.16.
  • Nishikori on form tells to win in 2 straight sets against Kukushkin.

WTA Strasbourg

Carla Suarez Navarro v McHale - 1.34 Navarro

  • 25th v 44th in the rankings. Close rankings.
  • 1-1 in head to heads back in 2011.
  • 4 3 set matches in her last 5 for Carla so she will always give her opponents a chance - lay the first set winner today?

Conclusions

  • I would be happier for McHale to win the first set to lay here. Yes, Carla won her earlier round in Strasbourg in 2 sets but we will get a short odds lay if Carla wins first set and we lay her.
  • Lay the first set winner. Tight rankings and recent Carla pattern for 3 sets.

Amandine Hesse v Shuai Peng - 1.25 Peng

  • 207th v 37th in the rankings. 2 new names I am not familiar with.
  • No head to heads.
  • Tough to weigh up Hesse given she has played in 60K and 100K events.She could not get out of the qualifiers for Marrakesh and Monterrey.
  • 81st, 25th, 56th (Peng retired), 18th, 12th are the rankings which have beaten Peng recently.
  • Peng was poor in Madrid and Rome, going out in the round of 64. A win over 41st French women Cornet is eyecatching given where this tournament is.

Conclusions

  • Hesse has been plying her trade in poorer tournaments.
  • Peng though has seen 2 tiebreaker wins, and then 4 consecutive 3 set matches albeit against better ranked players than today's.
  • Is Hesse good enough to take a set as Peng has been dropping at least a set in recent matches?

Daria Gavrilova v Kulichkova - 1.27 Gavrilova

  • 27th v 224th in the rankings.
  • In 2015, 1-1 in head to heads. First match for tie breaker first set, second match was a 3 set match.
  • Quarter final for Daria in Marrakesh and Roma but out in the round of 64 in Madrid (lost to 58th).
  • In Rome, a great set of opponents beaten.
  • Kulichkova went through qualifying to be here.
  • Her form again is tough to read as she has been playing 25K and 100K events.

Conclusions

  • Tough to read Kulichkova. Daria was superb in Madrid and lost to strong Kiki Bertens. Head to heads were from 2015. Too long ago to take as a guide?
  • If Daria loses a set, she has recent form to suggest a win from behind - it happened on 2 occasions recently.