Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I thought PAOK would be tight, indeed it ended a 0-1 but the goal came 31st minute so my thought that we would have a concerted period of 0-0 did not come to fruition. I nailed the fact that Alanyaspor could concede 4 goals. Zimbabwe again were vulnerable but did not score first (to allow for a good trading angle).
Not a particularly appealing day today, it is largely a cup day.

19:45 - Napoli v Fiorentina - 1.6 Napoli

  • This is the Coppa Italia.
  • 2 consecutive score draws in head to heads.

Napoli overall form

  • 8 wins and a 3-3 in 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • 3 draws and 5 wins in their last 8 home matches.
  • 3-5-2-3-3 scored by Napoli in their last 5 home matches.

Napoli cup form

  • Only 2 wins in 5 matches.
  • Loss, Win, Loss, Win in the last 4 home matches. Losses were v Inter Milan and Lazio. Those defeats came via 2nd half goals

Fiorentina overall form

  • 3 consecutive wins now includes a 2-1 win v Juventus.
  • No draw in 10 matches away.
  • 3 defeats in 5 away matches.

Fiorentina cup form

  • Only 1 draw in 18 matches.
  • Last in the cup in 2015 losing to Juventus and Carpi.
  • 2 away wins were v Juventus and Roma.

Conclusions

  • I am concerned with Napoli's recent defeats in the cup to Italian Seria A sides. It suggests they don't take the cup too seriously.
  • I would consider laying any late draw here today given Fiorentina tend to avoid draws.
  • I would expect 2nd half goals if the match is 0-0 at halftime given Napoli's pattern against other Seria A sides in the cup.

19:45 - Brighton v Cardiff - 1.74 Brighton

  • Brighton go top with a win today in the English Championship.

Brighton 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.

Brighton other stats

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.
  • No defeat in 10 at home, scoring in all 10 matches.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 matches played v teams 16th and lower in the league (Cardiff are 16th).

Cardiff 100% stats

  • All wins by a single goal.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 away.

Cardiff other stats

  • Only 1 defeat in 8 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
  • No away win v teams above them in the league.

Conclusions

  • Only 2 wins in 16 matches v teams above them in the league suggests Cardiff consistently cannot beat the best.
  • Brighton tend towards clean sheets v teams 16th and lower and, given Cardiff have conceded in their last 11 matches, we would expect Brighton to score one goal at least.
  • Brighton could win to nil, so note that if 0-0 at halftime. If Cardiff score first, they must be layed.
  • 2-0 potential correct score for me if 0-0 at halftime (2-1 saver of course).

20:00 - Reading v Fulham - 2.38 Fulham

  • 2 top 9 teams and the market cannot really split these 2 teams.

Reading 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Reading other stats

  • No draw in 14 matches and in 7 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 9 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Scored in all bar 2 home matches.

Fulham 100% stats

  • 2 away wins by only 1 goal.
  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Fulham other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Scored in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • Only failed to score in 2 away matches.
  • Scored 8 goals directly before halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams could score today. Apart from that I can make an argument for either side so will leave this match alone.