I thought PAOK would be tight, indeed it ended a 0-1 but the goal came 31st minute so my thought that we would have a concerted period of 0-0 did not come to fruition. I nailed the fact that Alanyaspor could concede 4 goals. Zimbabwe again were vulnerable but did not score first (to allow for a good trading angle).
Not a particularly appealing day today, it is largely a cup day.
19:45 - Napoli v Fiorentina - 1.6 Napoli
- This is the Coppa Italia.
- 2 consecutive score draws in head to heads.
Napoli overall form
- 8 wins and a 3-3 in 9 matches.
- Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
- 3 draws and 5 wins in their last 8 home matches.
- 3-5-2-3-3 scored by Napoli in their last 5 home matches.
Napoli cup form
- Only 2 wins in 5 matches.
- Loss, Win, Loss, Win in the last 4 home matches. Losses were v Inter Milan and Lazio. Those defeats came via 2nd half goals
Fiorentina overall form
- 3 consecutive wins now includes a 2-1 win v Juventus.
- No draw in 10 matches away.
- 3 defeats in 5 away matches.
Fiorentina cup form
- Only 1 draw in 18 matches.
- Last in the cup in 2015 losing to Juventus and Carpi.
- 2 away wins were v Juventus and Roma.
- I am concerned with Napoli's recent defeats in the cup to Italian Seria A sides. It suggests they don't take the cup too seriously.
- I would consider laying any late draw here today given Fiorentina tend to avoid draws.
- I would expect 2nd half goals if the match is 0-0 at halftime given Napoli's pattern against other Seria A sides in the cup.
19:45 - Brighton v Cardiff - 1.74 Brighton
- Brighton go top with a win today in the English Championship.
Brighton 100% stats
Brighton other stats
- Only 3 defeats.
- 4 consecutive home wins.
- No defeat in 10 at home, scoring in all 10 matches.
- 8 clean sheets in 9 matches played v teams 16th and lower in the league (Cardiff are 16th).
Cardiff 100% stats
- All wins by a single goal.
- No 1-0 or 0-1 away.
Cardiff other stats
- Only 1 defeat in 8 matches.
- Only 4 clean sheets.
- Conceded in their last 11 away matches.
- No away win v teams above them in the league.
- Only 2 wins in 16 matches v teams above them in the league suggests Cardiff consistently cannot beat the best.
- Brighton tend towards clean sheets v teams 16th and lower and, given Cardiff have conceded in their last 11 matches, we would expect Brighton to score one goal at least.
- Brighton could win to nil, so note that if 0-0 at halftime. If Cardiff score first, they must be layed.
- 2-0 potential correct score for me if 0-0 at halftime (2-1 saver of course).
20:00 - Reading v Fulham - 2.38 Fulham
- 2 top 9 teams and the market cannot really split these 2 teams.
Reading 100% stats
- No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
Reading other stats
- No draw in 14 matches and in 7 at home.
- Conceded in their last 9 matches.
- Only 1 0-0.
- Scored in all bar 2 home matches.
Fulham 100% stats
- 2 away wins by only 1 goal.
- No away match with exactly 4 goals.
Fulham other stats
- Failed to score in only 4 matches.
- Scored in their last 12 matches.
- Only 1 0-0.
- Only failed to score in 2 away matches.
- Scored 8 goals directly before halftime away.
- Both teams could score today. Apart from that I can make an argument for either side so will leave this match alone.