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A tough coupon today featuring a smattering of cup matches as well as league matches where the weaker side needs the points. There have been numerous shocks this weekend past where these weaker sides prevailed, or at least drew. It is a topsy-turvy part of the season.

17:00 - Slaven Belupo v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.26 Dinamo Zagreb

  • In the niche article I will write at the DRT facebook page, one of the niches is following a specific team. I did like to follow Dinamo Zagreb because, at home, they went 6 years without a loss. They have lost twice since though, and lost their last home match.
  • I like Dinamo Zagreb anyway fo will research this Croatian 1 League match.
  • 2 consecutive 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb wins in head to heads.
  • This is 6th v 2nd after 29 matches in Croatian top league. Dinamo Zagreb are 5 points shy of 1st place.

Slaven Belupo stats

  • Not scored at home v the top 2.
  • No win home or away v the top 3 this season.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches saw 3 1-1 draws.

Dinamo Zagreb stats

  • Only 3 defeats, 2 came at home - a rarity indeed - and lost their last home match.
  • 9 wins and a draw in their last 10 away matches.
  • All wins away v 3rd and lower this season.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in an away match v 2nd and lower.
  • Scored in their last 14 away matches.
  • 1-1-2-1-1-2-2 scored away v 6th and lower. Not overwhelming sides with their scoring.

Conclusions

  • Dinamo Zagreb are highly unlikely to lose today. This could be a 0-1 or a 1-2, a tight win. Do not be surprised with a 0-0 at halftime but do expect a goal 2nd half.
  • Remember Slaven have yet to score at home v the top 2 so if you want a 0-1, 0-2 as a correct score, it may be worth chancing, backing those correct score lines particularly if we are late into the match, at 0-0.

17:30 - Spartak Moscow v Ural - 1.25 Spartak

  • 0-1 Spartak Moscow 2 consecutive away wins in head to heads.
  • This is 1st v 10th in the Russian premier League.

Spartak Moscow 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0.

Spartak Moscow other stats

  • Won all home matches bar a single 0-1 defeat.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 10 matches.
  • 7 consecutive home wins.
  • Playing 10th today and have won 1-0 v 5th, 6th and 7th and lost 0-1 v 9th.

Ural 100% stats

  • All defeats v top 4 this season failing to score.
  • Not beaten a team above them in the league away from home.

Conclusions

  • This could be a tight 1 goal-in-it match favouring Spartak Moscow. Spartak may score first half. Note Ural are yet to score home or away v the top 4 so I would look possibly for another 1-0 Spartak, with 2-1 saver (they have been scoring and conceding recently).
  • Ural are layable if scoring first. They are highly unlikely to score a 2nd.

17:30 - Rostov v Ufa - 1.58 Rostov

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 5th v 9th in the Russian Premier League. A top 4 spot is available for Rostov who enjoyed their Europa League jaunt this year.

Rostov 100% stats

  • No defeat at home.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded at home v top 13 sides.

Rostov other stats

  • 5 consecutive 0-0's ended with a 3-0 home win v top of the league latest!
  • 10 clean sheets in 11 matches but failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.

Ufa 100% stats

  • No over 2.5 goals matches away.
  • Not conceded in both halves away.

Ufa other stats

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • 12 consecutive under 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only scored more than one goal in an away match once this season.

Conclusions

  • 0-0 looks to be in play here with 2 teams who tend to love under 0.5 goal matches. That said, Rostov suddenly beat Spartak Moscow by 3 goals in their last home match. Where did that come from? 0-0 is only 7.2 odds. That says it all!

18:30 - Sporting Gijon v Espanyol - 2.38 Gijon

  • Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Espanyol have won the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 18th v 9th in Spanish La Liga.
  • 5 matches remain this season, that's 15 possible points. Gijon need to focus on Leganes who are 4 points away as the most likeliest rival to avoid that 3rd bottom side which Gijon currently occupy.
  • Espanyol cannot get to the top 4 but 5th and 6th I believe are the Europa League positions.

Sporting Gijon stats

  • Only 5 wins all season.
  • 3-3-2 goals conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 16 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 16.
  • Scored and conceded at home v teams 2nd to 12th at home.

Espanyol stats

  • 3 consecutive 1-0's, 2 wins and a loss to Atl Madrid.
  • Espanyol are unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Scored 2 goals minimum v the bottom 3.

Conclusions

  • Another of those 'on form' matches as Gijon may play above themselves with points so desperately needed.
  • So, on form, Espanyol could score 2 goals at least as they have done in all 4 matches v the bottom 3 this season.
  • There is an argument for a pre-match 2-2 correct score as a trading angle. Gijon recent scorelines have been 3-1 loss, 2-3 loss and 2-2. If Espanyol can score their expected 2 goals, and Gijon can chip in with 2 goals as they have done last 2 matches, then we are motoring.

19:30 - Granada v Malaga - 2.28 Malaga

  • 1-1 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 19th v 15th in Spanish La Liga.
  • 5 matches remain for these 2 teams. Granada are 7 points shy of 4th bottom and the feeling is doomed. Malaga are 13 points above relegation. A win today confirms Malaga's survival this season.

Granada stats

  • 7 defeats and a 0-0 last 8 head to heads.
  • 0-1-1-1 scored in recent home matches but have played the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • v 13th and lower at home, we see win, win, draw, 0-1 loss, 0-0, 1-1 so are at that part of the league (where Malaga reside) where they can accumulate points.
  • 1-1-4-1-0-0-1 scored v 13th and lower at home. That '4' looks anomolous.
  • 17 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Malaga stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Unbeaten home and away v the bottom 4. Away from home, 0-0, 0-1 and 1-1. Tight matches.
  • 3 1-1 scorelines v bottom 2 this season.

Conclusions

  • 1-1 looks an obvious starting point given Malaga's preponderence towards that scoreline v the bottom 2. It fits in too with Granada being competitive v 13th and lower at home.
  • If you want to take a risk, then back 2-1/1-2 correct score as a trading angle. The thought here? That 1-1 comes early on in this match. 1-1 is the perfect scoreline for enabling us to trade out of 2-1/1-2 scorelines.

19:45 - Chelsea v Southampton - 1.45 Chelsea

  • 0-2 Chelsea in the last head to head.
  • This is 1st v 9th in the Premiership. Chelsea are now only 4 points above Tottenham.

Chelsea stats

  • No draw in 15 at home.
  • Scored in their last 15 at home.
  • All wins bar 2 defeats at home.
  • The 2 defeats were both 1-2.
  • 87% over 2.5 goals at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in 13/15 at home.

Southampton stats

  • 5 wins in 14 matches.
  • 3 wins in their last 4 away matches.
  • No draw in 8 away.
  • Not beaten a top 5 team home or away.
  • Not beaten a top 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Southampton did score and concede away v 2 of the top 4 they have played so watch out for that today. Note too that Southampton have not won away v top 7 teams so this should be a step too far for them.
  • Chelsea are likely to score first and negate any trading angle though.
  • Over 2.5 goals is a strong pattern for Chelsea at home.

19:45 - Wolverhampton v Huddersfield - 2.58 Huddersfield

  • 1-0 Huddersfield in the last head to head.
  • This is 15th v 5th in the Championship.
  • Both sides have 3 matches remaining this season. 9 points are available. Wolves season is over. This match is all about Huddersfield remaining in the play-off places.
  • Huddersfield can go 3rd with a win. Huddersfield now need to ensure a play-off place after Newcastle are promoted automatically.

Wolverhampton stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 10. A good run but the season is over now.
  • 1-1-0-0-1-1-3-1-0-0 scored in recent home matches. Poor goal scoring record at home.
  • Only 2 0-0's at home.
  • 9 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 win v top 8 at home.
  • 17 of 24 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Huddersfield stats

  • Only 2 wins in 7 came at home.
  • 2 defeats and a 1-1 draw last 3 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches since 5th November.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored and conceded away v 10th-14th inclusive without winning.

Conclusions

  • Ordinarily I would leave this match alone but feel obligated to research it. That's my stance with this one.
  • Let's see if we can build a picture from the above. I think Wolves have trouble scoring at home of late and that might allow Huddersfield in. Huddersfield, despite 2 defeats and a draw away recently have only failed to score 5 times since November 5th.
  • I would lay any late 0-0. Again is this a match where the motivated side is favoured?

19:45 - Mgladbach v Frankfurt - 2.08 Mlgadbach

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's in head to heads. That would be a sequence I would be keen to see end today.
  • This is the German Cup.

Mgladbach stats

  • 4 consecutive wins in the German Cup, the last 3 wins saw Mgladbach score 2 goals.
  • Mgladbach beat Stuttgart 2-0 at home in the cup.

Frankfurt stats

  • Unbeaten in 4 in the cup but the first 2 matches went to extra time.
  • 1-1 and 1-2 in 2 away cup matches.

Conclusions

  • I have no strong angles for this German Cup match. Do you?

20:00 - Angers v Guingamp - 2.38 Angers

  • This is the Coupe de France and really is not a match which appeals at all.
  • Both teams have scored in 3 of Angers' 4 cup matches to date.
  • Both teams have scored in 3 of 4 Guingamp matches.
  • Will both teams score again?

20:30 - Atl Madrid v Villareal - 1.5 Atl Madrid

  • 3-0 Villareal in the last head to head.
  • This is 3rd v 5th in the Spanish Primera Liga. Villareal search for 4th. Madrid search for 2nd. Mathematically possible both but unlikely.

Atl Madrid stats

  • 7 wins and a draw with Real Madrid in the last 8 matches.
  • 8 wins and a loss to Barcelona last 9 home matches. Good stuff.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Scored in their last 13 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only lost to the top 2 at home.

Villareal stats

  • 3 wins in 4 matches.
  • 6 of their last 7 away matches were under 1.5 goals.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • v top 14 teams Villareal have not scored that 2nd goal away.
  • Not conceded in both halves.

Conclusions

  • Villareal cannot score that 2nd goal away v top 14 teams so are layable if scoring first. Madrid have also scored in 13 matches.
  • The market expects Atl Madrid not to lose for a 2nd time v Villareal.
  • Lay any late draw despite Villareal's 2 draws v top 4, they have not had a draw in 11 matches.
  • Lay any late 0-0.