Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

16:30 - IFK Mariehamn v FC Inter - 2.3 IFK

  • 1-1, 1-0 IFK, 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads.
  • This is 4th v 6th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

IFK

  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • 2 losses in 3 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Conceded in their last 8 matches.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 2 matches played v the top 7 and those were 1-1 draws v 1st and 2nd.

FC Inter

  • 4 clean sheets in the last 7 matches.
  • No draw in 5 away.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals away.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 away draw was a 1-1 v top side.
  • Not beaten a top 4 side yet albeit 3 1-1 draws and a 2-1 loss and 0-1 loss.

Conclusions

  • There is an expectation here for these 2 for at least 2 goals in total. Indeed both teams scoring looks like a goer too if we look at FC Inter v the top 4 sides.
  • 1-1 crops up a lot and could be a good opening gambit from a trading perspective. Alternately, lay the first goal scorer?

16:30 - Lahti v HIFK - 2.06 Lahti

  • 1-2 Lahti in the last head to head.
  • This is 10th v 11th in the Finnish Veikkausliiga.

Lahti

  • Only 2 losses.
  • 8 draws those and a run of 4 consecutive 0-0's ended with a 1-1 last match.
  • 3 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 home loss. Was v 3rd.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal in a home match.

HIFK

  • Failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches.
  • 13 of 14 goals scored and conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 3 goals scored away v 7th and 12th. HIFK do have a goal or two in them.

Conclusions

  • I don't think I will be rushing off to buy a ticket to watch this one.
  • Lahti are yet to score that 2nd goal so IF they score and score first, they will have to hold on to 1-0 to win. That is dangerous. HIFK too have failed to score in 5 of their last 7 matches but have scored 3 goals v 7th and 12th.
  • If 0-0 at halftime I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 for the 2nd half. Yes the recent lahti 0-0 sequence has ended but both sides have a strong 2nd half bias.

17:00 - England U21 v Germany u21 - 2.46 Germany

  • 1-0 Germany u21 in the most recent head to head.
  • England u21 have conceded just 1 goal in their 5 Euro u21 matches. They have won 4 matches and a single 0-0.
  • The Germans are full of goals. They have scored 4-4-2-3 in wins and lost 1-0 to Italy u21.
  • The market cannot split the teams. This does have the feel of a 1-0 or 0-1 match. You may find value in backing 0-0 pre match and hope this is as tight as hoped, at least until halftime - I tend to trade out of 0-0's then.

17:00 - Alashkert v FC Santa Coloma - 1.22 Alash

  • This is the Champions League.
  • Armenia v Andorra here. This is the first of 2 legs and it quite simply is a big guess by the market who is going to win.
  • An Armenian and Andorran side are not going to meet enough for us to get any form lines.
  • If Andorran league football is as weak as the National side, then we must be with Alashkert today.
  • Alashkert are unbeaten at home in 2 Champions League matches. FC Santa Coloma have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 aways in the Champions League.
  • This, and all of the Champions League matches today, are best served via the in-play stats. The in-play stats will confirm the market.

19:00 - Vikingur Gota v Trepca 89 - 2.7 Trepca

  • Faroe Islands v Kosovo here in the Champions League and I am not even going to attempt to solve this problem. The market agrees with me, marking the favourite at odds of 2.7.
  • Both teams are new to the Champions League.
  • In-play stats with this, and all Champions League matches today. Free in-play stats are available at www.williamhill.com.

19:00 - Hibernians v FCI Tallinn - 2 Hibs

  • Malta v Estonia in the Champions League.
  • This is Tallin's first time in the Champions League. Hibs were last in the Champions League in 2009 and 2015.
  • I repeat, in-play stats are what you need here.

19:00 - The New Saints v Europa FC - 1.34 TNS

  • I know the New Saints (TNS) who dominate Welsh Premier League football. Europa FC dominate in Gibraltar.
  • This is Europa FC's first time in the Champions League. TNS were in the Champions League 2015 and 2016.
  • In-play stats will reveal how TNS get on with these Gibraltarians.

20:00 - Spain U21 v Italy U21 - 1.74 Spain u21

  • 1-2 Spain u21 in the most recent meeting.
  • This is the Euro u21 Championship.
  • Spain u21 are on a 3 match winning streak v FYR Macedonia u21, Portugal u21 and Serbia u21.
  • Italy u21 have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches but lost to the Czechs.
  • I am with the Spanish today. Their form looks more appealing. I will lay any Italian lead. I know the Italians beat Germany u21 and that is possible today but the Spaniards look like they have goals in them.

TENNIS

EASTBOURNE

Mischa Zverev v Ryan Harrison - 1.34 Mischa

  • Betfair has this down as Eastbourne. matchstat.com has it down as Nottingham.
  • 35th v 50th.
  • Zverev has won the last 2 head to heads on hard court in 3 sets and in 2 sets featuring a tie breaker. These are his shortest odds in head to heads with Ryan.
  • Mischa was strong in Stuttgart, reaching the semi finals and giving solid yardstick Feliciano Lopez a match - 3 sets, 2 tie breakers and a 7-5. That to me is good form.
  • He was unlucky enough to meet a renewed Federer in Halle where he took the first set to a tie breaker.
  • Harrison is on a 4 match losing streak.
  • I cannot see Mischa losing 2-0 today. I would be keen on Harrison taking the first set as I would back Mischa at bigger odds. His form v Lopez is good grass court form.

Thomas Fabbiano v Franko Skugor - 1.52 Thomas

  • 163rd v 321st and immediately I am put off by the rankings.
  • Fabbiano has won 3 of the last 4 head to heads, one of those wins was a retirement.. All wins were straight sets.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals. Make your life easier and trade matches with players who have an air of reliability. 3 figure ranked players by default do not!

Mona Barthel v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.58 Svet

  • 81st v 9th in the rankings.
  • The last head to head saw Barthel retire.
  • Barthel retired in Eastbourne last match. I cannot find a reason for the retirement.
  • First, First, First, Second Round last year on grass for Barthel. 12 wins and 17 losses.
  • 145th, 146th, 94th the players Barthel beat. This is a leap today to a top 10 player.
  • Svetlana has not played on grass yet this year.
  • 2nd round, 4th round Wimbledon last year for Svetlana on grass.
  • I cannot see anything in Mona's form to suggest a 2-0 win so must oppose Mona if she wins the first set. Potential injury niggle as well compounds this for me.

Ying-Ying Duan v Simona Halep - 1.21 Simona

  • 60th v 5th.
  • No head to heads.
  • First round loss Birmingham, and Duan went through qualifiers and beat McHale who retired first round here. Duan has yet to show anything to trouble Halep.
  • Halep is in rare old form. 3 consecutive Finals includes a Grand Slam Final.
  • Second round Wimbledon for Duan last year.
  • No warm up last year for Halep pre-Wimbledon. She is taking a different route this year. Simona reached the quarter finals last year at Wimbledon.
  • Halep should be winning here. Despite no head to heads, there is nothing in Duan's grass court form to suggest trouble for Halep.

Novak Djokovic v Vasek Pospisil - 1.2 Novak

  • 2nd v 112th and the fact Novak is 1.2 says a lot.
  • This is the Novak Shadow playing currently. His enthusiasm for winning has been removed and replaced with Donkey's Cheese.
  • 4-0 Novak in head to heads, all straight sets wins.
  • Quarter Final, Semi Final, Final, Quarter Final for Novak recently is a mini-crisis. Goffin, Nadal, Zverev and Thiem the recent victors.
  • 624th and 58th the recent players Vasek has beaten on grass.
  • Novak should be winning in straight sets - 73rd ranked Istomin is the highest ranked player that beat Novak recently.

Cameron Norrie v Gael Monfils - 1.12 Gael

  • 238th v 17th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Norrie is a Challenger player who beat 84th at Nottingham.
  • The recent losses for Monfils came v Thiem, Chung (solid Korean player), Gilles Simon (fellow frenchman), Stan Wawrinka (went on to the final in the French Open), and Gasquet (another Frenchie).
  • Norrie's form is unquantifiable as he is a Challenger player. Monfils has tended to lose to in-form quality players or....French Men. If Norrie wears a Beret he may win.
  • A hope that Monfils odds rise to make him backable. He should be winning 2-0 today.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov v Heather Watson - 1.7 Ana

  • 16th v 111th.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • I noted yesterday that Cibulkova was in poor form but still layed Heather after a first set Heather win.
  • It is obvious that Heather, at home, improves markedly. I wish I had the UK stats to hand for her. Remember the Serena Williams match? Yesterday? Winning 2nd set v Svitolina in Birmingham?
  • First round Birmingham, 2nd round Eastbourne and quarter Finals Wimbledon for Ana last year. Solid grass court form.
  • Wins v 82nd and 65th for Ana so far this grass court season.
  • 384th, 39th and 13th has beaten Heather recently on grass.
  • 42nd and 4th beaten here at Eastbourne.
  • I will lay the first set winner as I wanted to do yesterday. Ana, if showing an ounce of her Wimbledon 2016 form, should not be losing 2-0. Cibulkova was in poor form and that was acknowledged by the research, Ana is not in bad form.

Angelique Kerber v Kristyna Pliskova - 1.57 Kerber

  • 2nd v 57th.
  • Kerber won in 2 straight sets in 2017's Australian Open.
  • Kerber was injured in Madrid and retired. She has since lost 2 consecutive matches in 2 straight sets.
  • A fully fit Kerber is solid on grass. Final last year at Wimbledon.
  • Qualifiers and 1st round Wimbledon last year for Pliskova.
  • 51-20 win/loss on grass for Pliskova so she is obviously comfortable.
  • This is a tough match to quantify. There is a shadow hanging over Kerber. Obviously a fully fit Kerber will win. But since her retirement she has lost in 2 straight sets.
  • The value is to lay Kerber if Kerber wins the first set - we'll get shorter odds.

Daniil Medvedev v Sam Querrey - 1.51 Sam

  • 63rd v 27th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Medvedev is good on grass, at least this year. He reached the quarter finals at 's-Hertogenbosch. He lost to Dimitrov in the Quarters at Queens, in 3 sets.
  • 2 3 set matches in his last 3 suggests Daniil should not be winning 2-0.
  • Last year Daniil did not get through the qualifiers at Wimbledon.
  • Querrey has lost to Thiem, Wawrinka, Chung and Simon recently. All top quality players.
  • He reached the quarters at queens, beating Thompson in 3 sets (Thompson beat Murray).
  • Semi final, third round, quarters at Wimbledon for Querrey on grass. Sam has a 2 to 1 ratio of Wins to losses in 3 setters on grass.
  • I think Daniil will not be winning 2-0 if he wins the first set. I would be happy to back Querrey at evens or thereabouts.

Caroline Wozniacki v Naomi Osaka - 1.37 Caroline

  • 11th v 46th.
  • Wozza won in 2 sets in Tokyo in 2016, Osaki's back yard!
  • Quarter Finals in the French Open must please Wozza. This is her first grass court event this year.
  • 3rd round Eastbourne last year and out at Wimbledon v Kuznetzova last year first round.
  • Very limited grass court form from Osaka last year.
  • Wins v 35th and 70th for Osaka on grass.
  • Wozza yet to play her grass court cards this year so an element of a gamble in relying on her today. She is obviously back to her best this year. It has really been a transformation and that should ensure she does not lose 2-0 against an Osaka who has not really been tested on grass by a top 15 player.

ANTALYA

I am not too sure about matches at this venue. It seems a bit of a trip for pre-Wimbledon players. Maybe some of these names are obligated or incentivised to attend?

David Ferrer v Yuichi Sugita - 1.93 Ferrer

  • 32nd v 91st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Ferrer lost to 46th Haase in Halle in 3 sets. Ferrer won the first set.
  • He lost in 5 sets to Lopez in the French Open. A typical battling performance.
  • 8:5 on grass win/loss for Ferrer in 3 set matches.
  • First round and 2nd round Wimbledon last year for Ferrer. Waining on grass?
  • Sugita won the Surbiton Challenger which is good enough form considering he beat Thompson, who beat Murray at Queens.
  • He was unlucky enough to meet Federer in Halle.
  • There is nothing in Sugita's form to suggest a 2-0 win over a fit Ferrer. I will lay Sugita if Sugita wins the first set.

Radu Albot v Paolo Lorenzi - 1.71 Radu

  • 81st v 38th.
  • Lorenzi win in 2017 Challenger head to head.
  • Albot is in overall  poor form.He reached semis in a recent Challenger event.
  • Albot recently beat 37th ranked player here.
  • In the same challenger which Albot reached the semi finals in, Lorenzi actually won - they met in the semi finals.
  • Lorenzi on grass lost in 2 sets to Alex Zverev in Halle.
  • Not a match greatly appealing to me. On very recent form, Lorenzi showed he can beat Albot.

Andreas Seppi v Kamil Majchrzak - 1.15 Andreas

  • 74th v 250th. Again poorly ranked players but the market is strongly with Seppi.
  • Kamil is a futures and Challenger player.
  • Seppi at 1.14 v Masur won in 2 straight sets.
  • On grass last year, Seppi reached semi finals, quarter finals and 2nd round Wimbledon.
  • Seppi is comfortable on grass but overall is a very limited player who rarely gets through a 2nd round in the tournaments he plays in. If we see a glimpse of last year's grass court form, Seppi should have a comfortable day.

Lloyd Harris v Janko Tipsarevic - 1.28 Janko

  • 270th v 71st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Harris is a Challenger and Futures player so form is tough to gauge.
  • The last time Janko went to Challengers (on hard ground) he won both tournaments.
  • 3 consecutive 3 setters on grass for Janko (includes v Cilic), tells us he is unlikely to lose 2-0 if Lloyd wins his first set.

Marsel Ilhan v Martin Klizan - 1.48 Martin

  • 257th v 59th.
  • Klizan is 2-0 in head to heads quite recently and he was odds on favourite.
  • Ilhan is a Futures and Challengers player.
  • Klizan was quite good on clay, losing to the likes of Chung in 3 sets and in 4 sets v Murray at the French Open.
  • Klizan is not a regular grass court player.
  • I will leave this alone. Klizan was last at Wimbledon in 2011.

Steve Darcis v Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Fern

  • 53rd v 36th.
  • Last head to heads were in 2012.
  • I like Verdasco. He is a battler. In the French Open, he had 2 4 setters, a 5 setter and took Nishikori to 4 sets there and 3 sets in Halle.
  • There is nothing in Darcis's form recently to suggest a 2-0 win v Fernando. I will hope I can back Fernando at higher odds today.

Dominic Thiem v Ramanathan - 1.14 Thiem

  • 9th v 264th. I would have thought Thiem's odds would be even shorter.
  • Ramanathan is a Challenger player. As ever, we cannot really quantify his form.
  • Thiem lost to Haase at Halle - tie breaker last set.
  • Final, Semi Final, second round Wimbledon for Thiem last year on grass. Pre-Wimbledon Thiem was excellent.
  • Expectation is for a 2-0. I tend to lay these favs if they creep below 1.1 odds.If that occurs really early in this match I will jump on the lay.

Mannarino v Safwat - 1.14 Mannarino

  • 51st v 202nd.
  • No head to heads.
  • Safwat is a Challenger player.
  • Mannarino is a main tour player.On grass he recently lost to Tsonga and Alex Zverev, 2 solid players.
  • A recent win here v Borna Coric should see Mannarino through here.