Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

5pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Osijek  - 1.25 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • 3-1, 4-1, 5-0 in the last 3 home head to heads.
  • this is 1st v 9th in the Croatian top flight.
  • No big research here , suffice to say Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten at home in the league since August 2010. I know this stat by heart and it is always the angle in.
  • Lay Osijek if they score first or if they are leading late on. Dinamo Zagreb will lose at home in the league at some stage, but surf the ride while they still remain unbeaten.
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5pm - SV Grodig v Red Bull Salzburg  - 1.3 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Austrian Cup so just a cursory look here.
  • 3-6-3-8-2-3 scored by Red Bull in recent head to heads.
  • These 2 meet in quick succession so this game could be an important one for laying down an advantage for the league match in a few days time.

Grodig

  • Only 2 cup draws since 2008.
  • 4 consecutive cup wins against lower league teams.

Red Bull

  • Only 1 loss in 21 matches in the cup.
  • Unbeaten in 16 away cup matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Austrian Cup will not take a priority today. Red Bull are the better team, and score 2+ goals regularly against SV Grodig.
  • Lay Grodig if they score first.
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6:30pm - Bursaspor v Fenerbahce  - 2.62 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Turkish Cup and is not a match I want to focus on. The odds tell a story here. The market cannot split these 2 teams and the Turkish Cup has a fearsome reputation for surprises. Next please!!
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7pm - Barcelona v Getafe  - 1.05 home - BANKER to be leading at halftime

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive draws, 2-2 and 0-0 in recent head to heads.
  • Not today apparently!
  • This is 1st v 13th. Barcelona are 2 points clear of Real Madrid and must win again to retain an advantage.
  • Getafe are 7 points clear of 3rd bottom.
  • No draw at home for Barca sees them only lose 2 at home. They have scored 3+ goals v 11th and lower at home.
  • 75% over 2.5 goals at home for barcelona suggests a continuation of this goal scoring.
  • 38 of Barcelona's 54 goals at home were scored 2nd half.
  • Getafe have lost all away matches v 10th and higher and have failed to score in 6 matches so far played v top 4 teams.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • 1.05 odds suggests 3+ goals from Barcelona. We also know that we should expect a goal before halftime so lay the 0-0 halftime score particularly if after 15 minutes.
  • Getafe have trouble even scoring against the top 4. Barca will win and the value here is in a correct score punt (3-0, 4-0, 5-0?) or backing Barcelona halftime if the match is 0-0 for a short while in the first half.
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7:30pm - B Munich v Dortmund  - 1.52 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the German Cup.
  • After Dortmund were unbeaten in 3 head to heads, Bayern have won the last 2 head to heads 2-1 and 0-1

Bayern

  • Only 3 losses since 2007 in the Cup.  The last loss in the Cup was against Dortmund in 2012, a 5-2 loss.
  • 14 wins and 2 draws in their last 16 cup matches.
  • 13 wins and a loss in their last 14 home matches in the cup.

Dortmund

  • Only 1 loss in 90 minutes in their last 22 cup matches was against Bayern, a 1-0 in February 2013
  • 5 consecutive away wins in the cup for Dortmund.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Like the Austrian Cup, this German Cup does not take priority. Having the league in the bag, this might free up a Bayern team whose home support will be in celebratory mood as they look for the treble this season. The momentum is with Bayern in head to heads, in the last 2 matches which have been very tight.
  • Lay any late draw. Both teams tend to avoid the draw in this cup.
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7:45pm - Hull v Liverpool  - 2 away

Standout Stats

  • 2-0 Liverpool and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 5th in the Premier League. Sunderland are 3rd bottom on 30 points. Hull have 31 points. Liverpool are 7 points shy of 4th spot

Hull

  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 at home.
  • Only 3 wins in 13 were against Aston Villa, QPR, and Crystal Palace.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 6 at home were v Chelsea and Newcastle.
  • All defeats v top 8 at home.Failed to beat any side in the top 9 home or away
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Liverpool

  • Since 29th November 2014, only Man Utd (twice) and Arsenal have beaten Liverpool.
  • No win in 2 away
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 8 away matches.
  • All wins away v 15th and lower.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Liverpool tend not to lose to anyone other than top 4 sides recently. The only reason to expect otherwise would be a Hull side building on their last win, away at Palace.
  • Hull should not win today against a top 5 side. They have no form showing that is possible. Liverpool, if keeping a clean sheet, could win narrowly. They have only scored 1-1-0 in their last 3 away matches.
  • I will favour Liverpool today and oppose Hull if they should lead at any stage. Liverpool's odds are suspiciously high considering they are playing a team with all defeats v top 8 at home.
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7:45pm - Udinese v Inter  - 2.28 away

Standout Stats

  • Udinese have only lost one of the last 6 head to heads.
  • This is 13th v 9th in Seria A. Inter Milan are 5 points shy of top 5 spot so plenty to play for.

Udinese

  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 home matches.
  • Only 3 wins in their last 18 matches.
  • Udinese beat AC Milan at home last match and an impressive home win.
  • Udinese v top 4 at home are tight. Udinese have scored and conceded at home in all bar 2 matches v 6th and lower.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home

Inter Milan

  • Only 2 losses in 11 matches. Both were 1-0 defeats.
  • 2 clean sheets in their last 3 matches.
  • Losses away v 3rd, 5th, 6th, 15th, and 20th.
  • Only 2 0-0's away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A match I feel with a nail in the tyre, slowly deflating it. Both of these sides are safe, yes I suppose Inter Milan have top 5 to play for.
  • Udinese are excellent in head to heads. Enough to side with them, with the momentum of beating AC Milan at home? Inter Milan are unreadable away from home. Losses v 15th and 20th are a concern. Inter are in good form, in fact the better recent form.
  • Not a match that appeals to me.
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8pm - Paris St-G v Metz  - 1.15 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • Only 1 recent relevant head to head was a 2-3 PSG win which saw PSG feck up a 0-2 lead, draw 2-2 and win 2-3
  • This is 2nd v 19th in the French Ligue 1. Lyon must not have beaten Riems? PSG MUST take advantage of this. Both sides are on 38 points, PSG now have a game in hand and this is the opening that they have been waiting for , so tight have these 2 been in 1st and 2nd.
  • Metz have their own problems and are 7 points shy of 3rd bottom, so remain 2nd bottom with a win today.

PSG

  • 4 match winning streak overall and at home.
  • No defeat in 16 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches and in their last 5 at home.
  • PSG continue to score readily - 2-3-0-4-2-3-3-3-6 scored recently and as you know, 1.15 odds suggests 3/4 goals minimum.
  • Have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches. This is why, I suppose, PSG have to score 2+ goals. They keep conceding.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3-4-4 scored v bottom 5 at home, against conceding in each.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Scored 20 goals in each half at home. Conceded only 2 at home.
  • Scored first in 13 of their last 16 home matches.

Metz

  • No win in 13 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 3 matches.
  • Failed to score in 6 of their last 7 away matches.
  • Only 1 win away v 11th 0-1
  • 9 0-0's at halftime away (53%)
  • 16 of 24 goals conceded away came 2nd half. Scored only 2 goals away this season

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Famous last words....this looks PSG's. They are scoring consistently well, 3+ goals in their last 4 matches, and have a record of 3+ goals at home v bottom 5 sides.
  • Metz have recently failed to score in 6 of 7 away matches.
  • This has banker written all over it and is therefore an excellent DRT match.
  • Do remember to lay the 0-0 halftime score in these short odds matches.
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9pm - Ath Bilbao v Sociedad  - 1.7 home

Standout Stats

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in the head to heads. Prior to these draws, 3 Sociedad wins.
  • This is 8th v 12th in La Liga. Both sides are safe.

Ath Bilbao

  • No defeat in 5 at home
  • Have scored in their last 9 at home.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 draw in their last 5 at home.
  • Only 2 losses in their last 11 matches came away from home.
  • A little inconsistent at home , losing v 1st, 3rd, 14th, 19th and 20th.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home
  • Scored first in 10 of their 16 home matches.

Sociedad

  • No win in 5 matches.
  • 2 match losing streak away
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only scored 2 goals away once in their last 14 matches.
  • Only 1 away win v Getafe was a 0-1.
  • Only 1 0-0 away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Ath Bilbao are that most worrisome of teams, inconsistent and thus unreadable. Look at how well spread their defeats at home are throughout the league.
  • But in Sociedad, they meet a team dire away from home, safe from harm (not necessarily mathematically), and that's why Bilbao are odds on at home. Bilbao are undefeated at home and I think the best Sociedad can hope for is a draw.Lay Sociedad therefore if they score first.
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