Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A good set of research yesterday. Lyngby's match ended 0-0. Both teams scored in Viborg's match. Fiorentina scored 2 goals and did not lose. And Leicester scored 2 goals v Liverpool. 2-2 was tradeable at 2-0 Leicester and I hope you took it. The ideal progression for a 2-2 trade is 1-1 then 2-1 or 1-2, and not 2-0! The market got the Liverpool match wrong didn't it! Lazy market makers!
English Championship and Spanish La Liga dominate today and I will research these league matches first. Elsewhere we have cup matches in Europe.

17:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Arminia Bielefeld - 1.56 Frankfurt

  • The market is emphatic here in this German Cup match that the Bundesliga side will beat the 2 Bundesliga team.
  • But is Frank up for the cup?
  • In their last 4 cup matches, Frankfurt have only one win v Hannover. The lost 1-0 away to Erzgebirge, drew with Magdeburg and 0-0 v Ingolstadt.
  • Only 3 wins in 8 cup matches. This is not necessarily the form of a team busting a gut to win at all costs!
  • Only 2 wins in 8 for Arminia also suggests they are either a) not up for the cup or b) cannot consistently beat higher league teams in the cup.
  • The 2 losses for Arminia were v Bundesliga Wolfsburg and Hertha.
  • Only 1 win in 6 away matches for Arminia saw 3 matches going to penalties.
  • I don't know about you but I am not taken by Frankfurt's form. This is a match in which I would recommend that you pay attention to Frankfurt but take your cues from the in-play stats today, basically to see if Frankfurt's play is in keeping with that of a 1.56 shot.

18:30 - Sociedad v Eibar - 1.88 Sociedad

Sociedad 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v 9th and lower (playing 7th today).
  • No 0-0.

Socieadad other stats

  • Only 2 draws.
  • No draw in 11 matches.
  • Half of home matches 0-0 at halftime.
  • Lost 2-0 to Eibar earlier in the season.
  • 13 of 19 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Eibar 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.
  • Not beaten a top 9 team away (4 matches played) - Sociedad are 5th.

Eibar other stats

  • 4 wins in their last 5 matches scoring 3-4-4-3 goals in those wins.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.

Conclusions

  • Eibar's superb recent goal scoring must be put into context. It is largely v bottom third sides.
  • On form v top 9, Eibar should not win today (albeit they beat Sociedad at home earlier this season).
  • I would lay Eibar if Eibar scored first. I like Sociedad's home form and it suggests the home side should expect something.

19:45 - Aston Villa v Bristol City - 2.1 Aston Villa

Aston Villa 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten v teams below them in the league at home (Aston Villa are 17th, Bristol are 21st).
  • No over 4.5 goals.

Aston Villa other stats

  • Only 1 win in 10 matches was a 1-0 v Derby last match.

Bristol City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All away defeats came by 1 goal.

Bristol City other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 19 matches.
  • In 7 of 8 matches away, Bristol City conceded 2 goals at last.
  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No win in 12 away and have conceded in all 12 away matches.
  • Only kept 1 clean sheet away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Bristol City won 3-1 in the earlier head to head but may not be able to replicate that today. I would lay Bristol if they scored first.
  • Bristol City are likely to concede at some point so note that.

19:45 - Hamilton v Aberdeen - 1.58 Aberdeen

  • Aberdeen have delivered in 2 consecutive matches so have an air of reliability about themselves when odds on shots in the Scottish Premier League.

Hamilton 100% stats

  • Bottom of the league.
  • No home 0-0.

Hamilton other stats

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Beat Aberdeen 1-0 at home earlier this season.
  • 12 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Aberdeen 100% stats

  • No away match with 2 goals exactly.

Aberdeen other stats

  • 8 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 6 matches.
  • No draw in 12 away matches.
  • 11 goals scored away last 1/2 hour of matches.
  • 1-3 wins away v 2nd bottom and 3rd bottom.

Conclusions

  • It took Celtic a while to score against Hamilton and that might be the case today for Aberdeen who have huffed and puffed in their last 2 wins.
  • On form, Aberdeen should not lose today and should score......eventually so keep the faith if 1-0 or 0-0 for a while.
  • Lay any late draw as Aberdeen keep avoiding the draw away.

19:45 - Brighton v Newcastle - 2.56 Brighton

  • This is 1st v 2nd in the English Championship and in matches like this, I tend to avoid them from a trading perspective.
  • These 2 are in such good form that any result would not surprise.
  • Brighton are unbeaten at home v top 10 teams. They lost 2-0 to Newcastle earlier this season.
  • Brighton have had only 4 defeats to Newcastle's 7 defeats.
  • A no play for me. I don't have a trading angle.

19:45 - Blackburn v Derby - 2.58 Derby

  • Odds like these, coupled with a tough league such as the English Championship, makes this match less appealing immediately.

Blackburn 100% stats

  • 2nd bottom of the league.
  • All defeats at home have come v top 8 teams - Derby are 11th.
  • 1-2 win v Derby earlier in the season.

Blackburn other stats

  • Both teams have scored in 11 of the last 14 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 home matches.
  • 50% over 2.5 goals.

Derby County 100% stats

  • No 0-0 away.

Derby county other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 away matches. 3 1-0 defeats in their last 4 away.
  • 6 1-0 defeats and 5 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 5 wins, 2 1-0 defeats and a 1-1 v teams below them in the league away.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score looks a big stat here and I would want Blackburn to score first as I would be more confident laying them as first scorers.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Derby's away wins tend to congregate v teams below them in the league.

19:45 - Juventus v Napoli - 1.75 Juventus

  • This is the Italian Cup so caution advised.

Juventus cup form

  • Unbeaten in their last 9 matches - 6 were wins, 3 were extra time wins.
  • Scored and conceded in both of their 2017 cup matches.
  • 4-3-3-2 goals scored in their last 4 home matches.

Napoli cup form

  • 2 consecutive wins v Spezia and Fiorentina.
  • Only 2 wins recently away were v Juventus in 2012 and Fiorentina in 2014.

Conclusions

  • This is the first of 2 legs and so is not a must win match, rather a must-not-lose-by-so-many-goals-that-this-match-is-not-salvageable!
  • Caution advised therefore. I do though like Juventus's home form. I could see both teams scoring and Juventus not losing.

19:45 - Sportfreunde Lotte v Dortmund - 1.22 Dortmund

  • This is the German Cup.
  • Sportfreunde Lotte are a Bundesliga 3 side so any Dortmund side with an ounce of enthusiasm should win this match with ease.
  • Sportfreunde Lotte have an interesting cup record. They beat Werder Bremen 2-1, drew 1-1 with Bayer Leverkusen (Lotte's goal was an own goal) and meet a 3rd consecutive Bundesliga team.
  • Only 1 loss in 21 matches for Dortmund in the cup. Do note though that 3 of their last 4 cup matches have gone to extra time and /or penalties.
  • Dortmund have not conceded 2 goals or more in their last 9 cup matches.
  • There is an inkling that Dortmund take the cup seriously enough to at least not lose! I would expect same today so would love Lotte to score first so we could lay Lotte.

20:30 - Malaga v Betis - 2.02 Malaga

Malaga 100% stats

  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Unbeaten at home v teams 12th and lower (Betis are 15th).

Malaga other stats

  • Only 1 win in 11 matches came last home match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches and last 6 at home.

Betis 100% stats

  • No away draw.
  • Not scored more than 1 goal in a match away.

Betis other stats

  • 5 consecutive away defeats.
  • No draw in 10 away.
  • Conceded in their last 10 away.

Conclusions

  • Betis tend to lose away. 2 wins were 2-3 and 1-2.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Malaga are highly likely to score.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • On form, Malaga should not lose today.

20:30 - Valencia v Leganes - 1.79 Valencia

Valencia 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • 5 unbeaten both teams to score matches v bottom 5 sides (Leganes are 16th).
  • Scored and conceded at home v all teams 9th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals at home.
  • No 1-0 or 0-1 at home.

Valencia other stats

  • 2-2-0-2-2 goals scored in recent home matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • In 10 of 11 home matches, at least one team scored at least 2 goals.
  • In 8 of 11 matches at home, Valencia scored 2 goals.

Leganes 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Leganes other stats

  • In 7 of their last 8 away matches, Leganes have conceded 2 or more goals.
  • Only 2 wins in 17 matches.
  • No win in 8 away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 15 sides.
  • 8 of 9 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Valencia should not lose today and could score 2 or more goals, rather like Fiorentina yesterday.
  • Look out for that if 0-0 or 0-1 for a while.
  • I would want Leganes to score first. I would consider backing Valencia if Leganes score first.
  • Note Leganes are yet to lead at halftime away so if they score first and early first half, lay them in the halftime market.