Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A motley bunch today in a coupon scarred by a lack of liquidity as I write. Come back Premier League, all is forgiven.

Review of Yesterday's matches.

Beijing's match yesterday was 0-0 at halftime. That was your first angle in. Goals were expected and they came. Beijing won 2-1. Brann v Follo followed suit with a 0-0 at halftime. This was another match in which I expected goals, so lay the 0-0 for the 2nd half. Brann won 2-1 The Karlshuhe v Hamburg match was always likely to be a tense affair. Yet again, another 0-0 at halftime. The 2nd half saw the first goal come for Karlsruhe on 78  minutes.  Marcelo Diaz equalised for  Hamburg in the 90th minute for those of you siding with the Bundesliga team not to lose. I did favour them in my research. Goteborg v Djurgardens was 0-0 fulltime. If you layed the late 0-0 as I did, then I'm afraid we would have lost. Andy Murray dropped a set again so happy with that. My speculative 5 setter 3-2 bets on Cilic and Ferrer came to nought as surprisingly (for me), Ferrer won 3-0 I layed Errani 2-0 set betting after she won the first set, but the Goerges of head to heads and the recent French open rounds did not turn up and she lost 6-2 2nd set. Serena Williams is an alright geezer. He dropped the first set v Sloan Stephens. As I said 1.55 to back Serena 2-0 sets. NO TA! As expected Serena came back, and as is the pattern, won the next 2 sets. There was some great inplay trading. Sloane was layable at 1.3 and lower in-play. Serena was backable over evens. Laying Rafa at 1.09 was a bet to nothing and Sock did not produce until 2-0 down. Rafa won 3-1. I layed Novak at 1.03 - again the liability is ridiculously small and the upside huge. Novak was a 3-0 set winner, mullering the Frenchie. 11-1 in head to heads. Now I know why. Sacre Bleu Gasquet! If you layed the first set winner in Kvitova's match, then take a bow son. Kvitova won the first set but she has consistently been dropping sets and did so again, infact losing 1-2 to Timea. A good call from yours truly. I think the tennis info on the whole has been of a decent standard. The only worries for me are the dire set betting markets. The liquidity is not there which is a huge surprise for a Grand Slam event and does negate a lot of the solid trading angles that I point out.

3pm - Ukraine U21 v Moldova U21  - 1.2 home

Standout Stats

  • 0-0 and 3-1 Ukraine u21 in the 2 most recent head to heads.
  • This is a friendly
  • 7 clean sheets in the last 9 friendlies for Ukraine u21
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 at home in friendlies.
  • Recent loss v Czech republic was 0-1
  • Only 2 wins in their last 10 friendlies for Moldova u21 saw 5 draws. So do not be decieved by that initial stat
  • They have scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Little enthusiasm here although noting Moldova's scoring and conceding, I would lay them if they scored first.
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4pm - Qatar Youth v USA Youth  - 1.39 away

Standout Stats

  • The daily dose of Qatari bashing, unless of course the ref has found 4 gold bars in his locker room...
  • This is the annual Toulon youth football tournament.
  • 4 consecutive defeats for Qatar in this competition. Lord knows why they are making an appearance. Hmmmm...
  • This year they have lost 2-0 to France and 5-1 to the Netherlands.
  • The USA side are weaker than the above 2 named it seems. they have scored and conceded in their 3 Toulon tournaments so far.1-3 loss to France, 3-1 win over Netherlands and 2-1 loss to Costa Rica. The Form is all over the place. Where did that 3-1 v Netherlands come from?
  • On collateral form, they have the beating of Qatar based on that Netherlands result alone?

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • USA seem inconsistent but then the Qataris are consistently bad. Favour the USA today. USA have scored in all matches so do expect at least a goal from them
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5pm - Fyllingsdalen v Molde  - 1.12 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Norwegian Cup and the odds suggest that the away side will score 3/4 goals at least and score before halftime.
  • This is 8th in the 2. Division v 4th in the Eliteserien.

Fyl

  • No draw in 10 matches in all competitions.
  • 2 defeats in their last 7 at home in all competitions.
  • Interestingly beat Eliteserien Haugesund 4-1 in their last cup match.
  • Lost 1-3 to Brann in the Cup this time last year.
  • Scored and conceded in the 3 recorded home cup matches.

Molde

  • Consistently scoring. 2-4-1-3-3-6 scored in recent head to heads and were a banker bet last match where they scored the 6 goals.
  • 2 recent 2-1 losses away came in the league.
  • 10 consecutive cup wins is part of a run of 16 without defeat in the cup,.
  • 3 consecutive 2-0 wins in the cup
  • 6 consecutive away wins in the cup with 5 clean sheets in the last 6 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • What was with that emphatic Fyl win over Eliteserien Haugesund? Potential spanner in the works? Or faith in the currently free-scoring Molde to continue scoring 3+ goals against weaker league opponents today? I expect the latter. The angles in? A long drawn out 0-0 suggests we back over 3.5 goals at enhanced odds.
  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score, particularly if it is 0-0 for a while in the first half.
  • Lay Fyl, or back Molde, if Fyl score first.
  • Back Molde in the halftime market if Fyl score first in the first 20 mins of the first half.
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5pm - Sillamae Kalev v Parnu Linnameeskond  - 1.1 home

Standout Stats

  • Estonian league good for goals, but recently 1.12 shots have only won 2-0 so it may not play to the current rules that 1.1 shots equal 3/4 goals+
  • The only recent relevant head to head was a 6-1 Sillamae away win.
  • This is 4th v 10th of 10 after 13 matches in the Estonian top league.

Sillamae Kalev

  • All defeats this season have come v the top 5 sides.
  • Lost their last match and highly unlikely to lose 2 consecutive matches.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets at home
  • 4 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in their last 2 matches.
  • Have scored 4-5-6 against other opponents this season so could oblige at 1.1

Parnu

  • 9 defeats and a draw in their last 10 matches
  • In 12 of their 13 matches this season, they have conceded at least 2 goals.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches away
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches
  • No clean sheets

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Very straightforward therefore good DRT. Sillamae are likely to end their 2 match barren spell and not lose a 2nd consecutive match. They play a team conceding 2 goals regularly so hope that Sillamae score at least 2 goals. They are, though, expected to score 3+ goals and score before halftime too.
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5:30pm - Bologna v Avellino  - 1.99 home

Standout Stats

  • Bologna and Avellino are 2 top 8 sides and I think this is the start of the play-offs for entry into Seria A.
  • 0-1 to Bologna from an apparent first leg.
  • If the away goal rule stands then a 0-0 will see Bologna clear. There is a play-off margin of 14 points for teams to compete for the 3rd place in Seria A. The first 2 in the league automatically go through.
  • Against teams 5th-15th in Seria B at home this season, Bologna never conceded more than 1 goal.They did keep 9 clean sheet in 11 matches.
  • Avellino away in Seria B lost 2 matches to teams above them v 1st and 3rd. They conceded 2-0-1-1-0-0-0 v teams above them away

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Avellino need a 0-1, Bologna need a 0-0 bare minimum. In order to go through directly, Avellino need a 0-2 or a 1-2 if away goals count.
  • I do expect a very tight match with the potential for 0-0 at halftime. Both sides have the ability to keep clean sheets this season gone.
  • Back 0-0 pre-match and hope for a tight match?
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6pm - France Youth v Costa Rica Youth   - 1.37 home

Standout Stats

  • No head to heads for these 2 in the Toulon Tournament
  • 1-3 v USA and 0-2 v Qatar for France so far this tournament. They play a Costa Rica side who lost 3-2 v Netherlands (they were 3-0 down) and beat the USA 2-1 when the scoreline was 1-1

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • I think both teams could score today although there is a warning sign for Costa Rica being 3-0 down to the Netherlands. It seems their 2 goals were a reaction to the Dutch being complacent?
  • France Youth will face their toughest match so far but I think they should not lose so would lay Costa Rica if they scored first.
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7pm - FC Infonet v Paide Linnameeskond - 1.25 home

Standout Stats

  • 3 consecutive Infonet wins in head to heads, latterly 2-3 and 2-4 away from home.
  • The 2-4 win came via 2 90th minute winners.
  • This is 5th v 9th after 13 matches

FC Infonet

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's is a sequence expected to end today
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches
  • 4 consecutive home wins to nil
  • 2 defeats this season v 1st and 2nd in the league.

Paide

  • 3 match losing streak away
  • No win in 7 away
  • Scored and conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • Only 1 win this season came at home last match.
  • 2-0, 2-1, 3-2 scorelines in recent aways.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Let's hope infonet do what they did last time these 2 met. 2-2 until the 90th minute. The big profits do come at the end of the first half and the dying embers of the 2nd half. Infonet's recent clean sheets are not in keeping with head to heads.
  • I may back 2-2 here today if the odds are big pre-match and hope that this match reverts to head to heads.
  • Infonet should not lose today and have 2 0-0's to overcome . I would lay any late 0-0 here today. I cannot see a 3rd consecutive 0-0
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8:15pm- KV v Fram  - 1.42 away

Standout Stats

  • This is the Icelandic Cup. I am afraid I have my limits lol! This match is better attacked if there are some in-play stats to work with.
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French Open Tennis

11:30am- Bryan/Bryan v Matkowski/Zimonjic  - 1.22 Bryan - the Bryan brothers set to dominate again. No strong research available.

1pm - Ana Ivanovic v Elina Svitolina  - 1.43 Ana  - 7th v 21st in the world. The head to heads are emphatic. 6-0 to Ana.  3 consecutive 2 sets to love wins for Ana includes in the round of 64 here at the French Open last year. Most recently on clay in Madrid, Ana won 6-4, 6-4 which is fairly routine.

Elina is vulnerable. 2 2-1 set wins and a 7-6 2nd set v Cornet (tie breakers can go either way) . Indeed in the first round, she had a 7-5 and a 9-7 set. Hardly convincing and an element of luck to have reached this far. Ana dropped the 2nd set v Makarova last match but has posted a 6-0 and 6-1 in her last 2 matches. If she clicks, well.... For me, Elina is one to oppose if getting her nose ahead here. Obviously she is carrying a rabbit's foot along with a 4 leaved Shamrock. If Elina wins the first set, lay her 2-0 sets as I expect Ana to show the form of the head to heads.

1pm - Garbine Muguruza v Lucie Safarova - 1.96 Lucie. There will never be an evens/evens tennis match. One will always be odds on. This is effectively a 50/50 shout today. The market cannot really split these 2.

20th v 13th in the rankings. As tight as the odds suggest. This has 3 setter written all over it if we look via the market. I would suggest a couple of tie breakers as well. There have been no head to heads between these 2, and that could signal a potential shock as one player could simply be suited to her opponent's playing style. Ordinarily I would lay both players 2-0 sets here. I would alternately, lay the first set winner, particularly if said set was a tie-breaker.

2:30pm - Kei Nishikori v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga  - 1.32 Kei. Beating Berdych is no mean feat, and Kei will have a game on his hands today against a galvanised Froggie Tsonga.

5th v 15th in the world. A top tenner did not stop Tsonga yesterday I do hope you layed Tsonga at 2-0 up v Berdych. Tomas was always going to fight that 3rd set. Gabashvili was no real opponent for Nishikori, and today's match will be the tester. This could be the first match in which he loses a set. I would lay him if he wins the first set, and indeed wins the first 2 sets. Indeed, lay the first set winner 3-0 set betting or match odds. Head to heads see Kei leading 4-1 but it's never been a smooth ride. 3 sets last time out. 3 7-6 sets out of 5 in the 2 matches prior to that. I hope Kei wins the first set as I would lay 3-0 if the market is available. Set betting has been terribly illiquid this tournament and something Betfair needs to address.

2:30pm - Stanislas Wawrinka v Roger Federer  - 1.49 Federer. Fed ended a 2 match losing streak to Gael "Tildsley" Monfils last round and faces a Wawrinka with questionable attitude at times. I have seen Stan throw the towel in twice now. Coincidence? 9th v 2nd in the world.

The ATP Rome masters this year saw the other side of Stan, the bottler. 6-4, 6-2 Federer was not in keeping with previous head to heads where we saw Stan win the first set last 2 head to heads and then take Fed to a 7-5, and 7-6 This has the potential of being at least a 4 setter today so lay the first set winner and hope for an instant response. 3-0 set betting is my favoured market.