Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

There is a shortlist available at the DRT Facebook page in chronological order. The shortlisted matches are indicated below. I want to do a livechat video at DRT Facebook this evening with a 19:00 kick off. This is something brand new and experimental.
You need a Facebook account. Head on over to https://www.facebook.com/groups/288630934852757/, make sure you have joined the DRT Facebook page, and see you at 19:00.
I will monitor the Facebook page for those yet to join and will approve you throughout the day. I will try and write the best trades on Twitter @drtclub during the live chat. It will be 19:00 to 21:30.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - West Ham v C Palace - 2.6 Palace

  • A London Derby, new managers both and a tough match to predict. I will check the stats under new managers and see if we can get an angle.
  • Not looking at head to heads as the Hammers have a very recent new manager in David Moyes (football genius).

West Ham (11th)

  • 13 matches under Moyes I will focus on.
  • Nearly top 10 but noticeably only 4 points from the bottom 3.
  • Since 9th December, Moyes' impact has been excellent. Only 1 loss in 9 matches was a 2-3 loss v Newcastle.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches and we know, at least at home, that Palace have goals in them.
  • Win (v Chelsea), 0-0 ( Arsenal), 2-3 loss, 2-1 win,1-1 at home for West Ham under Moyes.

Palace (13th)

  • 20 matches under Woy.
  • 3 consecutive losses started the Woy wegime, but since then, only 4 losses in 17 matches came v Newcastle and Tottenham away and Arsenal twice.
  • Notice 3 of 4 recent defeats came v London opponents.
  • Away recently, palace conceded 1-1-0-0-0-1-1-then 4 v Arsenal.

Conclusions

  • A London derby and as 2.6 odds tells you, tough to call.
  • A recent both teams to score pattern for West Ham who are in excellent form under Moyes.
  • Palace under Woy are in excellent recent form, and if we take away Arsenal away, they have conceded 1-1-0-0-0-1-1 goals recently.
  • 1-1 looks like a potential scoreline to trade? But as I say, this could go either way.

19:45 - Swansea v Arsenal - 1.52 Arsenal

  • 3 consecutive Arsenal wins in recent head to heads.

Swansea (20th)

  • New manager 4 matches in.
  • Win, Loss to Tottenham, draw and win v Liverpool of all teams! 1-0.
  • Only 1 win v top 9 teams home and away.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored v top 5. Did beat Liverpool with that goal.

Arsenal (6th)

  • Scored and conceded in their last 6 matches.
  • Draw, Draw, Win, Draw , Loss last 5 aways.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 1 of their last 19 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • 1-0 v 17th away, 1-1 v 18th and 1-1 v 19th away.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 13 of 18 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • New manager syndrome for Swansea clouds this match. 1-0 v Liverpool was the only goal scored by the Swans v top 5.
  • With Arsenal failing to score in only 1 of their last 19 matches, I cannot see a Swans 1-0 today. Yes Sanchez is no more for Arsenal and a big miss  but Arsenal are scoring and conceding regularly.
  • Arsenal have 2 1-1 scorelines v bottom 3 sides and are a bit ropier away. I just hope Swansea's goal struggles v top 5 continue to 6th.

20:00 - Huddersfield v Liverpool - 1.36 Liverpool

  • 3-0 the last time these 2 met to Liverpool is what we should expect from a problem-free Liverpool side.
  • 2 consecutive defeats now in all competitions.

Huddersfield (14th)

  • 3 draws and 3 defeats last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches.
  • Beat Man Utd at home but it has been all defeats v top 6 home and away.
  • 8 of 11 goals scored at home came first half.

Liverpool (4th)

  • Coupon busting loss v Swansea last match.
  • That ended a run of 14 matches unbeaten.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 3 losses came away v 1st, 5th and 20th.
  • 3-3-2-3-4-4- goals scored v teams 6th-12th inclusive away.
  • A massive 11 goals scored away in 15th-30th minutes.

Conclusions

  • 2 consecutive defeats in all competitions. Surely that will end sooner rather than later for Liverpool. They play the right team today who only beat Man Utd in pre-Champions League mood.
  • V top 6, Huddersfield simply tend to lose.
  • Liverpool have scored normally 3+ goals v mid table teams away from home.
  • I would take a chance and lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Only 1 away for Liverpool and if Huddersfield are to score it tends to be first half.

19:45 - Middlesbrough v Sheff Wed - 1.74 Middlesbrough

  • 4 consecutive Middlesbrough wins.

Middlesbrough (8th)

  • No draw in 16 matches and in 8 at home.
  • 3 losses in 4 at home.
  • Solid v 16th and lower. 10 wins and a draw v 16th and lower home and away.
  • Only 1 home loss v teams below them in the league.

Sheff Wed (17th)

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • Failed to score in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 3rd-7th inclusive.
  • 13 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • I would lay any late 0-0. 2 consecutive 0-0's Sheff Wed is relatively big for 0-0 sequences. They tend to end quickly.
  • On recent form Sheff Wed are poor. V 16th and lower, Boro are very strong.
  • Despite Sheff Wed unbeaten away v 3rd-7th I would take a chance and lay any Sheff Wed lead.

The English Championship sees 4 matches with a favourite at odds of 2.4 or higher. Given this is one of the most competitive leagues I will not research these matches.

19:45 - Burton v Reading - 2.7 Reading


19:45 - Millwall v Derby - 2.76 Millwall


19:45 - Nottm Forest v Preston - 2.78 Forest


19:45 - Birmingham v Sunderland - 2.28 Birmingham

  • 2 bottom 3 sides. No thanks!

19:45 - Sheff Utd v Aston Villa - 2.46 Sheff Utd


ENGLISH LEAGUE ONE

19:45 - Blackburn v Walsall - 1.55 Blackburn

  • No recent head to heads.

Blackburn (3rd)

  • Unbeaten in 17 matches and in 11 matches at home.
  • Scored in their last 14 and last 11 at home.
  • Scored and conceded last 5 matches.
  • I include Blackburn today because they were good for trading at the weekend.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Blips at home v 14th and 16th but solid elsewhere.

Walsall (18th)

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0 away.
  • Only 1 win home and away v top 11 sides.

Conclusions

  • Strong momentum for Blackburn. They were conceding last match and equalised after showing extremely strong in-play stats.
  • Walsall's record v top 11 suggests they will not win today.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA

19:00 - Braga v Aves - 1.44 Braga

  • Braga were on my watchlist early season so a re-visit is on the cards here.
  • 0-2 Braga away the last time these 2 met augurs well for tonight.

Braga (4th)

  • Only 1 draw was a 2-2.
  • Only 2 defeats in 14 matches.
  • 7 consecutive wins ended with a loss last home match albeit v Benfica.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • No home draw.
  • Only home defeats v top 3.
  • 100% wins at home v 5th and lower.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 of 8 goals conceded at home came 1st half.

Aves (16th)

  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 matches.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score last 2 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 10 side home or away.

Conclusions

  • This should be a comfortable night for Braga. 100% wins v teams 5th and lower at home.
  • If Aves are to score, you feel it would be first half. if they score first and early, lay them in the halftime market.
  • Remember Aves have not beaten a top 10 team this season.

19:00 - Estoril Praia v Tondela - 2.06 Estoril

  • 5 consecutive Estoril wins in head to heads.

Estoril (18th)

  • Only 3 wins, 2 were 3-2 wins.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Beat Tondela 2-3 this season.

Tondela (10th)

  • Only 2 losses in 6 came v Porto and Benfica and those are not unexpected.
  • 1-0 win, 1-0 win, 0-1 loss in the last 3 away matches.
  • 7 under 2.5 goals matches away.
  • No 0-0.
  • Only 1 loss home and away v 12th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On form, Tondela are favoured by me today. I like their form v 12th and lower and the fact that they have only lost recently v top 3 teams.

21:00 - Moreirense v Porto - 1.26 Porto

  • The home team has won the last 5 head to heads in the league. Porto did beat Moreirense at Moreirense in the cup 1-2 in the latest head to head.

Moreirense (15th)

  • Only 3 wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 14 matches.
  • Not beaten a top 7 team.
  • 2 of 3 wins came v bottom 3 teams.
  • 6 of 7 goals scored at home came 1st half.

Porto (1st)

  • Unbeaten.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 4 match winning streak.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Scored first in 7/8 away.

Conclusions

  • Porto should remain unbeaten today. A comfortable home 3-0 win over Moreirense suggests the home team has little threat.
  • They score 1 goal max v top sides and Porto should score, so best case score draw Moreirense.
  • Porto tend to score first so we are unlikely to see a trading angle bar a 0-0, 1-0 at halftime.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Celtic v Hearts - 1.24 Celtic

  • Celtic tend to win but 4-0 Hearts in the last head to head.

Celtic (1st)

  • Only loss was that whopping 4-0 loss to Hearts.
  • That was one of 2 matches where Celtic failed to score.
  • No defeat in 12 at home.
  • 6 1-0 scorelines at home at halftime.
  • Scored first in 10/12 at home.
  • Led at halftime in 9/12 at home.
  • Beat Hearts 4-1 at home, lost 0-4 away.

Hearts (5th)

  • 7 consecutive clean sheets ended with a 1-1 last match.
  • 11 matches without defeat.
  • 1-1-0-0-0 conceded away recently.
  • Away from home, no win away v top 5.
  • 0-0 away v Rangers and Aberdeen.
  • Only 1 away win v top 9.

Conclusions

  • Revenge for Celtic. Hearts to continue their defensive strength. I had to check whether Hearts had a new manager but no, Levein remains.
  • Do look out for spoiling tactics for Hearts today. I do think Hearts will not do the double today. That is a ready angle if they score first.
  • You might want to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Celtic have led in 3/4 of home matches at halftime.

COPPA ITALIA

19:45 - Atalanta v Juventus - 2.32 Juventus

  • 3-2 Coppa Italia, 2-2, 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads.

Atalanta

  • Recent form home and away all competitions - only 2 losses in 13 matches so solid recent form.
  • Recent form home all competitions - 2 consecutive home defeats v Cagliari and Napoli.
  • Recent form home and away cup - no draw since August 2008; scored and conceded last 3 matches; beat Napoli 1-2 last cup match.
  • Recent form at home in the cup - 10 consecutive home wins scoring 2+ goals in each.

Juventus

  • Recent form home and away all competitions - 11 wins and 2 0-0's last 13 matches; 12 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • Recent form away all competitions - 6 consecutive wins with 5 clean sheets.
  • Recent form home and away cup - only 1 loss in 14 matches was a 3-2 v Napoli.
  • Recent form at away in the cup - 3 wins, a loss (but Juve through on penalties), 0-0. 3-2 loss Napoli recently away.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw based on Atalanta in the cup?
  • Atalanta solid home form scoring 2 goals albeit not v top top teams.
  • I would back 2-2 here based solely on head to heads and then if 2-2, lay the draw.