The Under 20 Toulon Tournament and U20 World Cup is on and I would be a contrarian trader here (under 20's are inconsistent and unreliable). That said, logic suggests being with the French in Toulon? No research from me.
I will be tennis trading again today. I got into my stride late on yesterday with Green after Green - check out the screenshots @drtclub. Lesson from yesterday? Leave the likes of Nicolas Mahut, Gilles Simon et al alone and keep faith in the big guns performing when the big guns are struggling (or there is an over-reaction in the market).
As I did yesterday, I will screen shot the French Open markets at the DRT Facebook page so I know who the short priced players are. Also, note the seeded players today. I got a couple of good trades from faith in the seeded players to get themselves out of a fix. See you at 10am or thereabouts @drtclub.
20:00 - Shamrock Rovers v Bray Wanderers - 2.2 Shamrock Rovers
- 4-2 Bray the last time these 2 met.
- This is 5th v 3rd in the Irish Premier Division.
Shamrock Rovers 100% stats
Shamrock Rovers other stats
- Only 1 draw.
- Failed to score only once.
- 4 wins and a draw last 5 home matches.
- Scored in their last 13 matches.
Bray 100% stats
Bray other stats
- Only 2 defeats in 10 matches but only 1 win in 6 matches.
- Failed to score only twice.
- Only 1 0-0.
- 7 away matches saw at least one team score 2 goals+.
- Losses v 7th and 12th were 3-2.
- Lay any late draw.
- If Bray are to lose it will be a 2-1 or 3-2.
- With Shamrock scoring in their last 13 matches we should assume a goal from them at some stage.
- I would lay Bray if Bray scored first based on recent poor form (only 1 win in 6).
I have chosen initially matches which catch the eye with players who could provide some trading angles.
Alexandr Dolgopolov v Carlos Berlocq - 1.76 Berlocq
- I cannot see this being a 3-0 / 0-3 but the Betfair Set betting markets are so illiquid.
- 82nd v 62nd.
- 4-2 Dolgo in the rankings. Dolgo is a player who beat Nadal in Monte Carlo on clay so has the game.
- Dolgo has had to go through qualifying for Madrid and Rome.
- Berlocq has lost to top players - Tsonga in Lyon (tournament winner), Berdych in Rome.
- I will lay any Dolgo lead here.
Guido Pella v Del Potro - 1.31 Del Potro
- 158th v 33rd.
- Del Potro won in Miamo in 2 sets - 2nd set was a tie breaker.
- Pella reached the final in Munich on Clay, losing to Alexander Zverev, semis in a Challenger and went through qualifying to get here.
- 3 3 set matches in 4 for Pella suggests he will not be winning 3-0 today.
- But then I said Elias would not beat Del P in 2 sets. He did. If you followed last week you know I hold Del Potro in high regard, at least I did before the Elias defeat.
- Players beating Del before Elias? Raonic; Djokovic (3 times); Federer, Harrison.
- I cannot see a Pella 3-0 here. I would want Pella to win the first set. If Del P clicks he will win 3-0. I hope the under par performance v Elias was simply taking his eye off the ball - the first set was a tie breaker Elias win so could have gone either way.
Johanna Konta v Su - Wei Hseih - 1.08 Konta
- 7th v 101st.
- Last met 2013 1-1 head to heads.
- Hseih's form is tough to gauge as he plays 60K, 100K events.
- 12th, 49th, 26th ranked players have beaten Konta recently. Konta won in Miami on hard but her clay form nothing to write home about.
- Faith in the odds and the rankings. Sub 1.1 odds players (particularly men) have delivered well when in trouble so far.
Maria Sakkari v Carla Suarez-Navarro - 1.16 Navarro
- 96th v 25th.
- 3 set win Aussie Open Navarro saw her lose the first set.
- More of that today please!
- 9 defeats in 12 for Sakkari who tends to need qualifiers in order to enter main tour events.
- Sakkari retired last match so may be carrying an injury.
- Navarro at these odds tends to be reliable and, like Bertens, goes through purple patches. She had one in 2015 where she was beating everything.
- She can be mentally weak though. She beat Wozniacki in 3 sets Madrid, and recently loss quarter finals Strasbourg to Stosur, with first set a tie breaker.
- Hope Sakkari remembers her taking first set in Oz. I will be with Navarro and back her if her odds double or triple in-play.
Marcos Baghdatis v Nicolas Almagro - 1.43 Almagro
- 60th v 57th in the rankings. I smell a potential 5-setter today. Baggy we know will not let up and give his all.
- 1-1 head to heads, last was 2015, Baggy winning in 3 sets.
- Poor recent form from Baggy, losing 4 on the trot, albeit 2 were v Kyrgios and Nadal. He has retired twice since 2016 which suggests he may carry a recurring injury.
- Almagro retired v Nadal last match so these 2 may be playing in wheelchairs. In Madrid, Almagro took a set off Djokovic.
- I am going to add this to my watchlist and lay any player leading 2-0 here. It should be a tight match. Almagro's odds look too short and I would lay him at shorter in-play.
Stan Wawrinka v Jozef Kovalik - 1.07 Stan
- 3rd v 148th.
- Stan won in Geneva and has petitioned for the French Open to be played in Switzerland as he tends to do rather well in his home country.
- Kovalik is a challenger player who went through qualification to get here.
- I am still going to lay Stan at 1.07. It is a lay to nothing and despite his undoubted talent, I do feel he has a screw partly loose and can get overtly frustrated if things do not go his way.
Thanasi Kokkanikis v Kei Nishikori - 1.03 Kei
- No ranking v 7th.
- No head to heads.
- Kokkanikis has not had much competitive tennis so really should not land a blow. Only 2 matches since 2015.
- Semi's in Geneva for Nishikori going out to Mischa Zverev.
- As ever these players are laying at 1.04. The thing we know about Kokkanikis is that we don't know about Kokkanikis. Neither will Kei. Surprise in store from the 21 year old or at least the hint of a surprise.
Radu Albot v Jeremy Chardy - 1.19 Chardy
- 81st v 70th in the ranking.
- Chardy is French so there will be expectation. Gilles Simon though fell flat on his croissant yesterday. Gasquet won
- 7-6 6-2 Chardy in 2017 in Indian Wells so we might see a competitive first set. A potential tie breaker can I hope offer Albot a chance of a first set win and us a good trading angle.
- Chardy is vulnerable to higher ranked players but reached the Final in the Aix en Province challenger and the round of 16 Bordeaux Challenger.
- Chardy's odds look far too short for me. Layable at 1.2? Tight rankings and a Chardy clearly having his better days behind him.
Andy Murray v Andrey Kuznetsov - 1.19 Murray
- 1st v 87th.
- Glass half full? Murray should be sub 1.1 and 1.19 is huge.
- Glass half empty? Something is amiss with the Scot this year.
- A 4 set Murray win in US Open in 2014, straight sets Beijing 2016.
- You'll recall Kuznetzov from last week. Some good trades from him. He lost in the semis in Geneva to Stan with 2nd set a tie breaker so that will give him real confidence.
- Murray lost to Borna Coric in straight sets in Madrid. He lost 2-0 to Fognini in Rome.
- Murray is not backable but clearly the better player.
- I think Kuznetsov will be competitive today. Laying Murray 1.2 is a risk as he could win first set, but Kuz took Tsonga to 2 tie breakers, took Stan to a tie breaker.
- I will wait and hope Murray wins or breaks early. Then I want to lay him as short as I can.
- 3-0 set betting could be layable if Murray wins the first set.
Kyle Edmund v Gastao Elias - 1.41 Edmund
- 42nd v 108th.
- Straight sets Edmund win in 2017 on hard.
- Some recent collateral Form. Del Potro beat Edmund but was beaten in straight sets by Elias on route to the quarter finals in Lyon.
- Prior to that Del Potro win, Elias was a 3 set player (in first to 2 sets). This is first to 3 sets so I think if Elias wins the first set he will not win 3-0.
- Edmund had 2 3 set matches recently and lost in 3 sets to a Gilles Simon who was roundly beaten yesterday. Not good form.
- If the Elias who played Del Potro turns up, then 1.41 is far too short for Kyle Edmund. I acknowledge the recent straight sets head to head.
Jan-Lennard Struff v Tomas Berdych - 1.22 Berdych
- 52nd v 13th in the rankings.
- No head to heads. I think Berdych should be shorter here if he can get that momentum that comes with beating a top 10 player in 2 straight sets on clay in Lyon.
- Struff was poor in losing in 3 sets to Stebe whilst very short odds favourite.
- This should be a routine Berdych win today It takes either a top 10 player or one of the next gen players (A. Zverev, Thiem etc) to beat Berdych.
- Oppose Struff if he leads sets wise at any stage.
Dustin Brown v Gael Monfils - 1.1 Monfils
- 75th v 17th.
- No head to heads.
- The great French hope, along with Tsonga, Gasquet.
- 6 defeats in 7 for Brown. But Monfils has been quiet of late. A loser in the round of 16 in Munich and losing to Gilles Simon in Madrid (and we know Simon has not franked any form with a dismal display yesterday).
- Monfils will not be winning the French Open. He will fall foul of a better ranked player. His recent form is poor too. There may be the question mark over fitness/injury with such a barren recent run-up to this French Open.
- Gael Tilsley is layable at 1.11 odds for me. We might get some fight from Dustin Brown who is clearly limited alas. I say layable as I would not be backing Monfils at 1.1 (put it that way).
- I got the lays right with A. Zverev and Ferrer yesterday whose odds I thought were far too short. remember laying the player at 1.11 we are not expecting the player to lose, only to have sufficient difficulty for us to trade out at a profit.
Ferro v Radwanska - 1.12 Aggy
- Caught my eye today. Aggy Radwanska.
- 208th v 8th in the rankings.
- Aggy meets a french women who will no doubt play above expectations.
- Poor form for Radwanska - she has not got out of the 2nd round in her last 6 warm up tournaments so something may be amiss.
- She lost to Lucic-Baroni recently and Lucic lost yesterday so the form is not good.
- Radwanska was apparently due in Stuttgart but did not turn up.
- Poor recent form for Aggy and although she should win, I would lay her as a first set winner in the hope Ferro shows something.