Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

This is a great link to the permutations for tonights' and tomorrow nights' matches. I will trade if I am online. Not an evening to get too carried away with. Some Champions League teams may surprise with 'must win' status to their matches. The English Championship is an absolute nightmare this evening and best left alone, bar Cardiff's match or a good reading of the in-play stats.

19:45 - Atletico Madrid v Qarabag Fk - 1.12 Atl Madrid

  • There are 3 matches remaining for Atl Madrid to catch up with Roma and Chelsea in Group C and this presents the perfect opportunity as Roma and Chelsea are set to slit each others' throats this evening.
  • It is must win for Madrid. 1.12 suggests 3/4 goals.
  • 5 draws in 6 matches in all competitions for Madrid sees them blunt up front failing to score that 2nd goal and paying the price.
  • 1-2, 1-1, 1-1 at home for Madrid. This is a sequence they will be keen to see end.
  • The scoring woes continue in the Champions League with 2 0-0's (including one v Qarabag) and a 1-2 loss to Chelsea.
  • Qarabag lost 6-0 to Chelsea, 1-2 to Roma and 0-0 v Madrid.
  • I personally am concerned with this lack of goal scoring from Atl Madrid. It needs fixing. 1.12 odds suggests a scoreline more akin to what Chelsea managed v Qarabag but note Roma only won 2-1 so Qarabag against a spluttering attack may frustrate this evening.
  • You know, the value is in laying Atl Madrid if they score first, given they score and concede at home and have trouble scoring that 2nd goal. It will be a short odds lay and admittedly unlikely to come about, but there is no better time to take a team on than when they are lacking in confidence.

19:45 - Celtic v Bayern Munich - 1.39 Bayern

  • Bayern are through with a win if PSG avoid defeat. Celtic cannot finish in the top 2 if they lose tonight.
  • Celtic lost 5-0 to PSG and 3-0 to Bayern Munich. they beat weak link Anderlecht.
  • Celtic lost 0-5 at home to PSG.
  • Bayern are in good nick at the moment since their loss away to PSG.
  • The 3-0 home win v celtic saw 2 first half goals.
  • Only 2 wins in 9 aways for Bayern in the Champions League, but played the likes of Atl Madrid, Juventus, Real Madrid and PSG. A loss to Rostov suggests where Celtic will get some joy. Rostov are a highly defensive side so that will be the only way Celtic get anything tonight.
  • Strictly on form, Celtic are not good enough to mix it with the cream of Europe. A distinct lack of domestic competition ensures that. Realistically 0-2, 1-2 are possibles tonight. Celtic may score as they did v Man City. it is must win territory for the Bhoys but Bayern, for me, are far too classy. They beat Celtic without Lewandowski even scoring!

19:45 - FC Basel v CSKA Moscow - 1.83 FC Basel

  • Basel are through with a win if United avoid defeat.
  • CSKA therefore will be unable to finish top 2 if Basel win and United avoid defeat.
  • Basel lost to Man Utd but have beaten CSKA away from home 0-2. The 2nd goal came 90th minute which suggests to me that the match was far tighter. That perhaps is the reason for a 1.83 quote this evening.
  • Basel have tended to concede at home, albeit not the case in a 5-0 v Benfica but in 5 of 6 prior matches. Draws with Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ludogorets at home will give CSKA something to cling to.
  • CSKA lost to Basel and Man Utd.They beat Benfica 1-2 away.
  • For me CSKA seem to be lacking up front. One of their 2 goals v Benfica was a penalty. Their goal v United was a 90th minute goal after already 0-4 down.
  • This could be a 1-1. I will back 1-1 pre match as a trading angle. It is clear that Benfica are not THE Benfica of old this season so I would not read too much into Basel's 5-0 win.
  • I suspect we could see a tight match today.

19:45 - Man Utd v Benfica - 1.4 Man Utd

  • Man. United will qualify if they win and CSKA fail to beat Basel, or if United draw and CSKA lose.
  • Benfica will be unable to finish in the top two if they lose and Basel avoid defeat, or if Benfica draw and Basel win.
  • This is a shadow of the Benfica team and I cannot see them getting anything out of this match.
  • Man Utd are highly likely to win to nil tonight. They are likely to get the result they need which is a win .
  • No other angles really into this match. Benfica are opposable if leading. United may wait 2nd half to score but it seems inevitable that they will score.

19:45 - Olympiakos v Barcelona - 1.25 Barcelona

  • Barcelona will qualify if they win and Juventus do not lose to Sporting, or if Barcelona draw and Sporting lose.
  • Olympiacos will be unable to finish in the top two if they lose and Juventus avoid defeat, or if Olympiacos draw and Juventus win.
  • 3-2-3 goals conceded in 3 defeats so far for Olympiakos. It was 2-3 at home v Sporting Lisbon.
  • 3 consecutive wins to nil in all competitions for Barcelona.
  • Barcelona have only conceded that 1 goal in this group stage (Oly scored).
  • 3 goals scored in home wins, only 0-1 away v Sporting Lisbon.
  • Barcelona are far more fragile away from home and have not scored those 3 goals away. Max of 2 goals. So factor that in today. We may see a 0-1, 0-2 or 1-2 today I think.
  • Olympiakos are not the Oly of old.

19:45 - Paris St-G v Anderlecht - 1.07 PSG

  • Paris will qualify if they win and Celtic fail to beat Bayern, or if Paris draw and Celtic lose.
  • Anderlecht will be unable to finish in the top two if they lose and Bayern avoid defeat, or if Anderlecht draw and Bayern win.
  • 5-3-4 goals scored and none conceded. We should see another 3+ goal haul for PSG today.
  • 3-3-4 conceded by Anderlecht without scoring.
  • It does look a bit straightforward. 3-0, any other home score are possibles today for PSG unless.......Anderlecht realize that this is a must win and suddenly up their game but there is nothing in the form to suggest that.

19:45 - Roma v Chelsea - 2.7 Roma

  • Chelsea are through with a win.
  • The winner today goes top of the group. Chelsea remain top of the group with a win.
  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins for Roma in Seria A. They followed that epic 3-3 v Chelsea.
  • 3 1-0's at home, 0-1 v Napoli and 2 wins.
  • Roma in the Champions League are historically poor. Only 3 wins in 22 matches.
  • 0-0 v Atl Madrid, 1-2 win v Qarabag and 3-3 v Chelsea. Dzeko is the key scorer for Roma.
  • 0-0-0-0- scored in their last 4 home Champions League matches. Of course this has to change for Roma this evening.
  • 3 wins out of 3 domestically for Chelsea after that 3-3 with Roma.
  • Fascinatingly (if that is a word), Chelsea away have only tended to lose to a big name like Man Utd OR a London club (Arsenal, Palace, Tottenham, West Ham!). Roma, as far as I know, are not a London club but are certainly a big name
  • 2 wins and a 3-3 for Chelsea saw them scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Not the best away form in the Champions League for Chelsea.
  • The market cannot split these 2 teams so mark that. I can create a negative argument for either side. Roma, no goals in 4 at home. Chelsea poor away form. A match for the in-play stats.

19:45 - Sporting Lisbon v Juventus - 2.04 Juventus

  • Juventus are through with a win if Barcelona avoid defeat.
  • Sporting will be unable to finish in the top two if they lose and Barcelona avoid defeat.
  • Sporting beat Olympiakos 2-3, lost 0-1 to Barcelona and 2-1 to Juventus.
  • Sporting keep things tight.
  • 1-1-0-0 scored in their last 4 home Champions League matches for Sporting.
  • 4 consecutive wins for Juventus in all competiions scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Juve lost away to Barcelona in the Champions League, and won 2 home matches v Olympiakos and Sporting Lisbon.
  • Sporting Lisbon tend to keep matches tight so note that this evening. Juventus are scoring 2+ goals home and away.
  • No strong angles but a feeling Juventus are too good for the Portugeuse team. Sporting are not scoring consistently.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

This is not a league to trade for me tonight. I thought I would research but am regretting it now. Cardiff match looks the most readable. Fulham's both teams to score is next. Other than that, a bunch of unreadable matches.

19:45 - Burton v Barnsley - 2.7 Burton

  • 0-0 and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Burton

  • Only 2 wins came at home.
  • Failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
  • Not led at halftime at home.
  • Only played one of the bottom 7 and that was a win. (Barnsley are bottom 7).
  • 5 of 6 goals scored 2nd half.

Barnsley

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Both teams scored in the last 4 away matches.
  • 3 losses away v top 4 teams.
  • 7 goals conceded 1st half away.

Conclusions

  • 2.7 tells us this is tough to call.
  • Slight nod towards Barnsley given they have only lost away v top 4.

19:45 - Cardiff v Ipswich - 1.66 Cardiff

  • 1-1 and 3-1 Cardiff in the last 2 head to heads.

Cardiff

  • Only 2 defeats came away.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a home match.

Ipswich

  • No draw.
  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 losses in 4 aways.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • All defeats v top 14 teams home and away.
  • Opponents have scored first in all away matches.

Conclusions

  • It looks clear cut here. Cardiff look strong, Ipswich simply lose to top 14 teams.
  • I would lay Ipswich if Ipswich scored first.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's for Cardiff should end today.

19:45 - Fulham v Bristol City - 2.04 Fulham

  • The head to heads are inconclusive.

Fulham

  • Scored and conceded in all bar 3 matches.
  • 2 of 3 defeats came away.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 9 matches and last 5 at home.
  • All score draws v top 12 at home and play 4th today.
  • 6 of 8 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Bristol City

  • Only 2 wins.
  • Only 1 away win was the first match of the season.
  • Not lost at halftime away.
  • Failed to score only once away.
  • Scored first in 5/7 away.

Conclusions

  • A very strong both teams to score pattern for Fulham cannot be ignored particularly the score draws at home v top 12.
  • Given Fulham score mostly 2nd half at home and Bristol have not lost at halftime away, it seems Bristol City may be the first goalscorers.
  • Back 1-1 and 2-2 here as trading angles in the hope that Fulham continue to see both teams scoring?

19:45 - Hull v Middlesbrough - 2.72 Middlesbrough

  • The market cannot split these 2 teams so I will do a quick look at the stats to see if it is worth researching.
  • A quick look at the Challenge Table and I would be favouring Middlesbrough today.
  • Hull have not beaten any top 14 team (Boro are 12th) and done all of their winning v 19th and lower.
  • Boro have not lost home or away v 13th and lower (Hull are 17th).
  • Both teams to score crops up. So on this basic form analysis lay any Hull 1-0 or 2-0 lead and hope Boro continue to remain unbeaten v 13th and lower.

19:45 - Leeds v Derby - 2.52 Leeds

  • Another match in which the market has given up. 2.52 odds the favourite is non-commital.
  • 2 top 7 sides.
  • 1-0 home wins last season give nothing away.

Leeds

  • All 5 defeats this season have come within the last 7 matches.
  • That includes 2 consecutive home defeats, the only home defeats this season.
  • Lost to both 1st and 20th at home so no strong form patterns.

Derby

  • 3 draws and 3 wins last 6 matches for Derby.
  • Failed to score only twice.
  • 2 of 3 defeats came away.
  • All 3 defeats have come v top 4 teams and they play 5th today.
  • 8 of 11 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Derby are clearly vulnerable to top 4 teams. Does that extend to top 5 teams? We will find out tonight. That I suppose is why the market cannot split these 2.
  • For me Leeds look more vulnerable, being on that horrendous losing run where all defeats this season have come within their last 7 matches.
  • Were I to side with a team it would be Derby but remember this. This is the most competitive league in Europe and the market cannot even split these teams.

19:45 - Norwich v Wolves - 2.74 Wolves

  • Norwich have won the last 3 head to heads.
  • 2 inform sides and very hard to take a position (as 2.74 odds tells you).
  • Only 3 losses for Wolves.2 losses away v 1st and 14th.
  • Norwich are 8th. Wolves have scored 2+ goals v 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 11th so may cope with Norwich.
  • 0-0 and 1-2 loss for Norwich v top 7 teams suggests they may not cope with Wolves.
  • 5 of 6 Norwich goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Again we have to acknowledge the 2.74 odds for the favourite suggests the market hasn't got a clue.
  • On basic form I would side with a Wolves seemingly capable of scoring 2 goals v top 11 sides home and away.
  • Norwich have yet to beat any top 7 side at home. Slight favour for Wolves.

19:45 - QPR v Sheff Utd - 2.72 Sheff Utd

  • In an increasingly tricky Championship coupon, here is another 2.7 odds favourite.
  • Both sides have similar form. 3 of 4 defeats came away from home and with Sheff away today they may be more vulnerable.
  • No draw yet for Sheff Utd suggests a win or loss today.
  • QPR though have had 4 draws in 6 matches.
  • With only 2 clean sheets and failing to score in only 2 matches, it suggests QPR are more likely to score and concede.
  • In 5 of 7 matches at home, QPR scored 2 goals. They play 1st today and beat 2nd 2-1 at home.
  • Another toughie today. Backing 2-1 / 1-2 pre match might give us an angle if QPR's 2 goal pattern continues. Sheff Utd, being 1st in the league, can be expected to weigh in with a goal.
  • I tend to trade out at 1-1 if lucky enough to see an early 1-1.

19:45 - Sheff Wed v Millwall - 1.98 Sheff

Sheff Wed

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 4 losses in 6 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Only loss v 1st in the league at home.
  • Scored and conceded at home v 11th and lower (Millwall are 15th).

Millwall

  • Failed to score in 6/7 away.

Conclusions

  • Millwall tend to do 0-0 or 1-0 loss away bar a 2-2 v 14th.
  • Sheff Wed are in poor form but have only lost one home match.
  • Sheff Wed tend to score and Concede at home. Millwall though cannot seem to buy a goal.
  • A messy match - not for me.

19:45 - Sunderland v Bolton - 1.75 Sunderland

  • Only 1 win for either of these teams. Yikes!
  • Both teams have scored in Sunderland's last 7 matches without Sunderland winning.
  • Note inplay stats. If Sunderland dominate corner stats, they tend to score as a result. It has happened a few times this season.
  • Sunderland have conceded in every match - Bolton have just the one clean sheet.
  • No win at home for Sunderland, no win away for Bolton.
  • The English Championship is as readable as a Piers Morgan Daily Mail article.
  • Both teams may score today but can you trust either of these 2 dodgepots?

20:00 - Reading v Nottm Forest - 2.3 Reading

  • The last match in what has largely been a waste of time researching this tough English Championship. Only the Cardiff match really interests me.
  • No draw for Forest this season and only 3 wins for Reading.
  • I will bring this swiftly to a close.