Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

The Champions League permutations are worth reading here at https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/newsid=2511865.html#/  
Focus only on matches with teams with something to play for. Barcelona for example have nothing to gain or lose. Sporting Lisbon must win. Juventus must win, Basel must get a result, Atl Madrid must win against a Chelsea who may be switched off. Chelsea have already qualified.

19:45 - Barcelona v Sporting Lisbon - 1.46 Barcelona

  • Barcelona are through.Sporting Lisbon can qualify if they win and Juventus do not.

Barcelona

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 3 draws in 4 matches now. A slight dip in form. Unbeaten in 21 matches though.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only one loss since October 2016. Scored 2 goals at least in their last 10 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM  : 4 clean sheets in 5 matches. 2 consecutive 0-0's.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 3-0 and 3-1.

Sporting Lisbon

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 8 with 4 consecutive wins.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 1 loss in 10 was v Juventus.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : scored and conceded in 5/6.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 2-3 win v Olympiakos and 2-1 loss to Juve.

Conclusions

  • Dead rubber for Barcelona so watch out for team changes in what is a quickeningly congested fixture list.
  • Sporting only lost 2-1 to Juventus and 0-1 to Barcelona so are in with a shout.
  • The only way Sporting can realistically win is if Barcelona rest Messi, Suarez et al.
  • I would lay the late 0-0. Barcelona having 3 consecutive 0-0's in any competition would be such an anomoly.

19:45 - Olympiakos v Juventus - 1.28 Juventus

  • Juventus will be through with a win, or if Sporting fail to gain victory (if they finish level on points, Juve have the superior head-to-head).
  • Olympiacos will finish bottom.

Olympiakos

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : scored and conceded in their last 6.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 5. Last 6 home defeats have all been one-goal-in-it. scored and conceded last 3 home wins.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 4 defeats and a 0-0, conceding 3-2-3-0-3.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 2-3 loss to Sporting and 0-0 v an already qualified Barcelona.

Juventus

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 3 wins in 6 matches. 3 consecutive clean sheets though.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : only 5 wins in the last 10 away matches so are more vulnerable away.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : only failed to score v Barcelona. 0-0 last match. 2-0 home win v Olympiakos.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 3-0 loss to Barcelona and 1-1 v Sporting.

Conclusions

  • Juventus are not their usual selves this season but then they play an Olympiakos woefully out of their depth and conceding 3 goals on 3 occasions.
  • Olympiakos are conceding at home and this presents Juventus an opportunity to get the win, despite not winning an away Champions League match.
  • 0-1 Juve would happily take. Olympiakos have nothing to play for, Juventus have everything.

19:45 - Benfica v FC Basel - 2.54 Basel

  • Basel will go through if they better CSKA's result, or if both teams draw or lose due to their superior head-to-head. If CSKA and Basel win, the top two will be decided in a three-way head to head, and Basel would be through unless CSKA win by a margin of between three and six goals inclusive).
  • Benfica will finish bottom.

Benfica

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 3 clean sheets in 4 matches but conceded in the Champions League.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 4 wins to nil in 5 matches. Only aberration was a 0-1 loss to Man Utd.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 6 consecutive defeats.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 1-2 and 0-1 losses at home.

Basel

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 5 consecutive wins, scoring and conceding in 4 of those.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 5 wins and a 0-0 recently. Scored 4 goals in each of the last 2 away which augurs well.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 3 wins and a 1-2 loss in 4 matches. Beat Benfica 5-0 at home.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 3-0 loss to Man Utd and 0-2 win v CSKA.

Conclusions

  • Fun and games with the permutations. The market is not sure here despite Benfica having nothing to score for, I usually side with the team with something to play for in games such as this and that is Basel who have scored 4 goals in each of their last 2 away matches.
  • I would be laying Benfica today if Benfica scored first.

19:45 - Chelsea v Atletico Madrid - 2.16 Chelsea

  • Chelsea are through. They will secure first place with victory or if Roma fail to win.
  • Atlético need to win and hope Roma do not to finish second (if they both finish on nine points, Atlético have the superior head-to-head).

Chelsea

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 5 wins and a 1-1 in 6 matches. 4 clean sheets.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 5 consecutive wins.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 3 wins and only failed to win v Roma.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 6-0 and 3-3 at home.

Atl Madrid

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 4 consecutive wins. Unbeaten in 13 matches. 2-5-3-2 goals scored recently and that is a change from earlier in the season where they had trouble scoring. And it is right on time for this must-win. Win from behind last match must have been a great confidence booster.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten in 17 away. 7 clean sheets in 9 away matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : only 1 win, 3 draws and a loss.0-1-0-1-2 goals scored.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 2 consecutive away 0-0's.

Conclusions

  • I think Atl Madrid are clicking up front now. The evidence 2-5-3-2 goals scored recently. 2-0 win v Roma recently in the Champions League. Chelsea simply do not need to win and that will affect them mentally. A 2-1 win from behind for Atl Madrid v Sociedad at the weekend sees them in good form today. I will take a chance and side with Atl Madrid not losing tonight. Simply put, there is a subtle switching off mentally when a team does not need to win.

19:45 - Celtic v Anderlecht - 1.91 Celtic

  • Celtic and Anderlecht can both still finish third. Anderlecht were beaten 3-0 at home by Celtic so the Belgian side must win by a three-goal margin in Glasgow to go into the UEFA Europa League (if they win 3-0, Anderlecht finish third on overall goal difference).
  • I really am not bothering with this match. It is a 'so what?' match. So what who wins or who loses, it will not affect the fact that for these 2 teams, the Champions League is over!

19:45 - Bayern Munich v Paris St-G - 2.52 Bayern

  • Paris and Bayern are both through, with top spot still to play for ahead of their matchday six meeting. Paris won the first game between the sides 3-0 and also lead on overall goal difference so Bayern must win by a four-goal margin to finish top.
  • I cannot see enough incentive here to warrant research and a trading plan for this match.

19:45 - Man Utd v CSKA Moscow - 1.48 Man Utd

  • Manchester United would qualify in first place with a point (and can afford to lose by six goals and still go through). If they lose to CSKA and Basel do not win, United and CSKA will go through with first place determined by head-to-head results between the two; United won 4-1 in Russia and would have the superior overall goal difference if they lose 4-1. If CSKA and Basel win, the top two will be decided in a three-way head to head; United would be through in this situation unless they lost by seven goals, and would be top unless they lost by five goals).
  • CSKA must pick up more points than Basel to ensure second place (if both win, CSKA must win by a margin of three goals to go through in the three-way head-to-head and by a margin of five goals to finish top).

Man Utd

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : no draw in 11 matches. 3 consecutive wins.
  • HOME FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : unbeaten at home since September 2016. 13 consecutive wins. 10 clean sheets in those matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM : 4 wins and a 0-1 loss to Basel.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AT HOME : 9 wins and 2 draws in their last 11 home matches.

CSKA Moscow

  • FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 5 wins and a 2-2.
  • AWAY FORM ALL COMPETITIONS : 2-2-4-1 goals scored away. Only 1 loss in 14 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM  : 3 wins and 2 losses v Man Utd and Basel. No loss in 10 matches.
  • CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FORM AWAY : 4 consecutive away wins. The last 2 matches were 1-2 wins.

Conclusions

  • Watch out for CSKA who will be eyeing a win and hoping Basel under-perform. Watch out too for a much-changed Man Utd side. That is what I would do if manager with the December/Christmas football schedule so hectic.
  • CSKA will have to beat a Man Utd unbeaten run since September 2016. My concern with United is that they know this is not a do-or-die match for United.

19:45 - Roma v Qarabag Fk - 1.11 Roma

  • Roma will go through with a win, or if Atlético fail to win. If Roma win and Chelsea do not, Roma win the group.
  • Qaraba? will finish bottom.
  • 0-2-3-2-0 scored by Roma this campaign included a 1-2 win v Qarabag where Roma were 0-2 up.
  • 2 clean sheets at home for Roma.
  • Qarabag managed draws v Atl Madrid amongest their defeats.
  • With the need for a win, expect a win for Roma. They would take a 1-0. The market expects 3/4 goals.