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Red cards change games ....right? There was no trade in the Chelsea match as their centre forward Batshitcrazy (I think that's how you spell it), was sent off early. Elsewhere, Lazio conceded first against Genoa. Having researched the match we know Genoa are infrequent scorers so a lay of Genoa was the way to go. Lazio equalised. At the end of the match, it was collector's item time as Genoa scored a 92nd minute winner.
Today I will prioritise the League matches and then perhaps take a look at some cup matches, prioritising the matches with odds-on favourites. The cup prevails this week but tomorrow there is a full set of Dutch Eredivisie matches worthy of our attention. I will do a shortlist today. See it at DRT Facebook page.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:45 - Zwolle v Heerenveen - 2.68 Heerenveen

  • 2.68 the favourite suggests a match to leave alone.
  • 2-1 Zwolle in the last 2 head to heads.

Zwolle (5th)

  • 3 losses in 4 matches.
  • Only 5 losses though all season.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not beaten a top 7 team.

Heerenveen (8th)

  • Only 1 loss in 7 came v in form AZ Alkmaar.
  • Scored and conceded last 4 away.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Like Zwolle, only 1 win v teams above them in the league, scoring and conceding in 4 away matches.

Conclusions

  • The market does seem to get these right. Both sides struggle v top 7 sides. Who will out today?
  • Heerenveen tend to score and concede v top 7 and given they have scored in their last 10 matches, I would suggest laying Zwolle if Zwolle score first but as I say, 2.68 the favourite makes for unappealing fare.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Motherwell v St Johnstone - 2.22 Motherwell

  • Both teams have scored in the last 6 head to heads.

Motherwell (7th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v 5th and lower.

St Johnstone(8th)

  • 2 draws and 3 defeats last 5 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No away 0-0.
  • Have beaten 3rd, 4th, 6th away from home and beat Motherwell 4-1 earlier this season.

Conclusions

  • It seems to me that the Rangers game below is the most appealing. Here we have teams in poor recent form.
  • I can make equal arguments for the sides. Motherwell only one home loss v 5th and lower. St Johnstone have beaten 3 top 6 sides away.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - Partick v Rangers - 1.64 Rangers

  • 1-2 Rangers, 2-2 and 3-0 Rangers in the last 3 head to heads.

Partick (10th)

  • 3 defeats in 7 came v Celtic (twice) and Aberdeen. Losing to the elite recently it seems.
  • 5 home wins in 7 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at home.
  • Tellingly no win home or away v the top 6.

Rangers (3rd)

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Recent loss v Hibs. Have had 2 occasions this season where they have lost 2 consecutive matches.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • 9 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • 12 away goals scored between 15-45th minute away.

Conclusions

  • Partick managed a 2-2 at home to Rangers last time out and that is best case scenario today you feel.
  • I am with Rangers today who certainly have goals in them.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Rangers scoring 12 goals away between 15th-45th minute.

COUPE DE FRANCE

17:30 - Auxerre v Vendee Les Herbiers - 1.6 Auxerre

  • Ligue 2 v National 1 so a gap in the leagues.

Auxerre

  • Recent overall form home and away - 5 wins and 2 draws last 7 matches.
  • Recent overall form at home - only 2 losses in 10 matches; scored and conceded in 4 of 5.
  • Recent Coupe de France form home and away - only 1 loss in 9 matches.recent 3-4 win v Nantes is eye-catching; beat Ligue 1 St Etienne in 2017 after extra time.
  • Recent coupe de France form at home - good form - 2 1-0 wins, 0-1 loss to PSG; 2-2 and go through extra time and 0-0 and go through extra time 3-0.

Vendee Les Herbiers

  • Recent overall form home and away - scored and conceded in 9/10 matches.
  • Recent overall form away - scored and conceded last 6 ; unbeaten in 7.
  • Recent Coupe de France form home and away - unbeaten in 8 matches; lost to Ligue 1 Guingamp in 2017.
  • Recent coupe de France form away - have met largely lower league sides so tough to quantify.

Conclusions

  • Both teams to score perhaps? With a distinct bias towards laying any Vendee lead.

17:30 - Bourg-Peronnas v Marseille - 1.34 Marseille

Bourg-Peronnas

  • Recent overall form home and away - Ligue 2 side; 2 wins in 3 matches but those were the only 2 wins in 9 matches.
  • Recent overall form at home - only 2 wins in 9; one was v Toulouse in the cup.
  • Recent Coupe de France form home and away - only 1 loss in 10 matches; 3 wins and an extra time win in 4 matches.
  • Recent coupe de France form at home - Loss; Loss; Win last 4. Did beat Toulouse at home.

Marseille

  • Recent overall form home and away - 6 wins and 2 draws last 8 matches.
  • Recent overall form away - 3 consecutive wins to nil.
  • Recent Coupe de France form home and away - only 1 loss in 12 matches; 4 extra time matches in their last 5.
  • Recent coupe de France form away - only 1 loss in 12 matches; 4 wins to nil in 5 matches.

Conclusions

  • A feeling Marseille take it down a notch in the Coupe de France, as advertised by their 4 extra time matches in 5.
  • I do not expect Marseille to lose but a draw to bring the match to extra time would not surprise.

20:05 - Sochaux v Paris St-G - 1.14 PSG

  • Ligue 2 v Ligue 1.

Sochaux

  • Recent overall form home and away - 4 wins and a draw in 5 matches.
  • Recent overall form at home - 7 wins and a loss last 8 matches.
  • Recent Coupe de France form home and away - lost 0-1 to Marseille in 2016 ; only 2 losses in 12 matches.
  • Recent coupe de France form at home - only 1 loss in 6 matches at home was v Marseille. 3 extra times - 2 v Ligue 1 sides.

Paris St-G

  • Recent overall form home and away - only 3 losses since 29th July 2017; 12 wins in 13 matches.
  • Recent overall form away - 7 wins in 8 away.
  • Recent Coupe de France form home and away - 20 consecutive wins.
  • Recent coupe de France form away - unbeaten in 31.

Conclusions

  • PSG tend to be up for the cup so should be favoured today. A massive 20 consecutive wins in the Coupe de France.

ENGLISH F.A. CUP

19:45 - Swansea V Notts Co - 1.53 Swansea

  • 1-1 in the last match sees this F.A. Cup replay.
  • Swansea are unbeaten in 7 matches new and remember have a new manager in Paul Lambert who has engineered home wins v Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • Notts County don't have recent F.A. Cup form v Premier League sides.
  • I think Swansea should be favoured today. It is a balancing act I am sure for their new manager. Priority surely must be Premier League survival and that is a real possibility because the lower half of the Premier League is so tight. Teams in 11th place for instance are relegation threatened! There is also the momentum issue for Lambert too. Unbeaten in 7. Let's continue that run? League Two Notts County should be within Swansea's compass this evening.

GERMAN CUP

17:30 - Paderborn v Bayern Munich - 1.12 Bayern Munich

  • 3 Liga Paderborn meet the Bundesliga leaders.
  • A 2014 loss to Leipzig after extra time and a 7-1 loss v Dortmund in the cup for Paderborn suggests that today's match is a stretch.
  • Are Bayern Munich up for the cup? Well, their only losses in the cup since 1st August 2011 came v Dortmund.
  • It seems any draw or loss came v Dortmund. Expect a 3/4+ goal haul for Bayern today.

19:45 - Leverkusen v Werder Bremen - 1.63 Leverkusen

  • 1-1 and 1-0 Leverkusen last 2 head to heads.
  • Only 1 loss in 24 matches for Leverkusen in all competitions.
  • only 1 loss in 16 at home for Leverkusen. Those losses overall and at home came v Bayern Munich.
  • Only 3 losses in 14 matches for Werder, includes one loss v Leverkusen. In 2016 Werder lost to Leverkusen in the cup. They also lost to Bayern and Sportfreunde.
  • The market expects Leverkusen to win. Leverkusen have recently beaten Werder Bremen in the league and in 2016 in the cup. Enough to side with leverkusen?