Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

As with yesterday, we were successful in focusing on the few and not the many (Maritimo scoring first half, Oss over 2.5 goals etc). So today, here's what I will focus on - I would expect a Monaco goal; I would lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina score first; Bayern beat Wolfsburg 1-3 recently in the cup - enough to expect Bayern not to lose today?

18:00 - Montpellier v Monaco - 1.97 Monaco

  • Monaco tend to win the most recent head to heads, scoring emphatically as well.

Montpellier 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at home v teams above them in the league - Montpellier are 13th, Monaco are top.

Montpellier other stats

  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.

Monaco 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Unbeaten home and away v teams 11th and lower in the league.

Monaco other stats

  • Failed to score only once.
  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Scored in their last 17 matches.
  • 91% over 1.5 goals away.

Conclusions

  • This might be a battle for Monaco today. Montpellier actually beat PSG at home and are unbeaten v top 10 at home.
  • But then Monaco are unbeaten v teams 11th and lower in the league.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Do expect a Monaco goal. They are prolific at home, yes, but have also scored in their last 17 matches.
  • Other than that, it would be no great surprise were Montpellier to get something, such is their home form.

 18:00 - Caen v Bordeaux - 2.62 Caen

  • 1-0 Caen and 0-0 in the last 2 French Ligue 1 head to heads.

Caen 100% stats

  • No home 0-0.
  • No home match with exactly 4 goals.

Caen other stats

  • 3-3-3 scored in their last 3 home matches.

Bordeaux 100% stats

  • No away match with a 1-0 or 0-1.

Bordeaux other stats

  • 3 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
  • Bitty away form - no pattern to it.

Conclusions

  • A match making no appeal. I cannot get any strong trading angles. Remember, just because I research a match it does not mean I have to play!
  • I will leave the match up. It may offer you an angle.

19:45 - Roma v Fiorentina - 1.66 Roma

  • This is Italian Seria A Fiorentina won the last head to head 1-0.

Roma 100% stats

  • No draw at home.
  • All wins at home.
  • No home match with 2 goals exactly.

Roma other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 7 wins in 9 matches.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches were 1-0.
  • 19 of 28 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • No draw at halftime away.
  • 4 defeats out of 4 away v top 9 teams saw both teams score.

Conclusions

  • If Roma are to win today, they will have to outscore Fiorentina as Fiorentina tend to lose but score in defeat v the top 9.
  • No draw for Fiorentina at halftime so lay the 0-0 in the haltime score market.
  • I would lay Fiorentina if Fiorentina score first.

19:45 - Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg - 1.22 Bayern

  • This is the German Cup.

Bayern overall form

  • 9 consecutive wins ended with a draw last match.
  • 11 wins and 3 1-1 draws in their last 14 home matches.

Bayern Cup form

  • Not lost a cup match since August 2012.
  • Last home cup defeat was in March 2011.

Wolfsburg overall form

  • 3 consecutive wins ended with 2 defeats recently.
  • Only 3 wins in their last 9 away matches.

Wolfsburg cup form

  • 8 wins in 9 cup matches. The loss? 1-3 v Bayern Munich.
  • 6 consecutive away cup wins.

Conclusions

  • Interestingly it seems both of these sides are up for the cup. Tellingly, Wolfsburg's defeat was v Bayern most recently in the cup.
  • Is that enough to side with the home side today?
  • Lay Wolfsburg if Wolfsburg score first.

19:45 - Greuther Furth v Mgladbach - 1.62 Mgladbach

  • 2 Bundesliga meets Bundesliga in the German Cup.

Greuther Furth overall stats

  • 2 wins last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 7 home.
  • 4 wins in 6 matches saw both teams score.

Greuther Furth cup stats

  • Beat Mainz 2-1 recently - another top flight Bundesliga side - care of a 90th minute winner so an element of luck.

Mgladbach overall stats

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches.
  • After 5 consecutive defeats away, win, 0-0, 2-3 win last 3 matches away.

Mgladbach cup stats

  • Only 1 loss in 17 matches was a 3-4 v Werder Bremen.
  • 7 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 9 cup matches.

Conclusions

  • It looks as if the Bundesliga side Mgladbach have solid cup form, enough to side with them today. Furth did beat Mainz 2-1 recently. Do we read anything into that? It was a late 90th minute winner.

19:45 - Wigan v Norwich - 2.46 Norwich

  • I will research this as it is a league match (as opposed to the Cup we face in Germany).
  • I must say, an English Championship match with a 2.46 favourite would ordinarily be swerved! We shall see what the stats reveal.

Wigan 100% stats

  • Wigan are 2nd bottom in the league.
  • Not beaten any top 12 teams at home. Norwich are 7th.
  • Failed to score at home v all top 10 teams.

Wigan other stats

  • No draw in 8 at home.
  • All defeats at home v top 8 - 4 of those defeats were 0-1.

Norwich 100% stats

  • None.

Norwich other stats

  • 4 wins in 5 matches.
  • Scored and conceded home and away v bottom 4 sides.

Conclusions

  • Strange to see the market dismiss 7th placed Norwich v 3rd bottom Wigan.
  • Both teams could score today. 2-1 / 1-2 are the scorelines that tend to prevail for Norwich v bottom sides so I would back these as a trading angle.
  • Lay any late draw.
  • Caveat - this is ordinarily a match I would avoid!

19:45 - MK Dons v Oldham - 1.89 MK Dons

  • 0-2 MK Dons win in the last head to head.
  • This is English League One. I rarely venture here but in light of so many cup matches, I thought I would include the odd league match as form is more readable.

MK Dons 100% stats

  • None.

MK Dons other stats

  • Unbeaten in 5 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 3 home wins. Oldham are 4th bottom. MK Dons lost against 3rd bottom and 2nd bottom.

Oldham 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals match away.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Oldham other stats

  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 3 away wins, 2 were 0-1 v bottom 3 sides.

Conclusions

  • Another match I can happily wave goodbye to. I thought an odds on favourite might produce an angle for me, but no.
  • Can we trust a home side whose form is no inconsistent that they lose to bottom 3 sides?
  • I am not going to research the other lower league English match.

20:00 - Barcelona v Atl Madrid - 1.63 Barcelona

  • 1-2 to Barcelona from the first leg in this Spanish Copa Del Rey.
  • Atl Madrid need a 0-1 today. 2-1, 2-1, 1-1 for Barcelona the last 3 times Atl Madrid visited.
  • Back 1-1 pre match?

20:00 - Paris St-G v Lille - 1.25 PSG

  • Monaco are still gettable at the top of French Ligue 1 for PSG.

PSG 100% stats

  • No defeat at home.
  • All wins at home v 7th and lower without conceding - Lille are 12th.
  • Scored 2+ goals in those wins.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

PSG other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • 91% over 1.5 goals at home.

Lille 100% stats

  • Not conceded in both halves away.

Lille other stats

  • Only 2 defeats in 10.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Only 2 away wins.
  • 1-1 v 3rd and 1-2 v 4th away. Only lost 0-1 to PSG at home.
  • 11 of 13 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • On form, PSG should be scoring 2 at least and winning to nil. That's if the Lille who drew 1-1 v 3rd and beat 4th 1-2 away don't turn up.
  • We might see a sturdy Lille in the first half, but as with Oss last night (I hope you profited!), expect 2nd half goals. Huge concessions 2nd half.