Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I focussed on 2 matches yesterday, Norrkoping and Malmo and both rewarded delayers. Norrkoping were playing an AFC Utd with only 1 win all season and surely had a goal at least in them. Indeed it came 2nd half for those who retained faith. On Twitter @drtclub I put forward a lay the draw at 1.09 in the Djurgardens v Malmo match. The 0-0 was ended as the draw odds hit 1.04 (extreme delayers hit the jackpot) as 10 man Malmo nicked a winner! The stats did not suggest a 0-0.
I don't know about the EFL Carabao Cup, whatever the feck that is, but I do know that the Scottish League Cup has been excellent from a trading perspective, so that is where I will begin today.

19:45 - St Johnstone v Partick - 2.06 St Johnstone

  • 2 Premiership sides meet in this League Cup, 0-1 St J, 0-1 Partick, 1-0 St J in the last 3 head to heads.
  • Both sides have only the one draw in recent League cup matches. Enough to lay any late draw?
  • It has taken a good team to beat St J. in the League cup lately, only Hibs and Aberdeen have managed it.
  • Partick has tended to meet lower league opponents. This time last year, Dundee United knocked them out.
  • Very tentatively with St J. today and I would lay Partick if Partick scored first. I do note the 1-0 head to heads so that might be risky.
  • I would lay any late draw based only on both sides' form in this competition.

19:45 - Celtic v Kilmarnock - 1.17 Celtic

  • Celtic tend to win head to heads and at home scored 9 goals in 2 matches v Killy.
  • Celtic tend to win League cup matches but did lose away to Ross County in January 2016, following that up though with wins v the likes of Rangers and Aberdeen.
  • Killy has a less than consistent record in the league cup. They are on a 3 match winning run, albeit v the likes of Clyde, Annan and Dumbarton.
  • The market expects 3/4 goals from Celtic tonight, in keeping with the last 2 home head to heads.

19:45 - Falkirk v Livingston - 1.8 Falkirk

  • 2 Scottish Championship teams.
  • 1-1 and 1-2 Livingston in the last 2 head to heads.
  • 5 consecutive wins for Falkirk in the League cup saw 4 with clean sheets. Obviously this is a competition which they want to take seriously (or the more cynical take is that they are meeting weaker sides).
  • 3 consecutive wins too for Livingston in the League cup.
  • Not sure of any strong angles here. The head to heads point to the potential for both teams to score. The market has nodded towards Falkirk who do have the most recognisably good league cup form.

19:45 - Hibernian v Ayr - 1.25 Hibernian

  • Premiership v League One in this League Cup encounter.
  • This time last year, Hibs lost to Scottish Championship Queen of the South but since then conceded only once in 4 League cup matches.
  • Hibs has scored in each of their last 9 home league cup matches and note they have scored 10 goals in their last 2 home matches.
  • Ayr has scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 League cup matches. This does suggest Ayr are layable if leading.
  • I would have to be with the SPL team today. A simple angle in.

EFL CARABAO CUP

This used to be the League Cup. I will not be researching all matches as some teams treat this competition with utter contempt. I will take my cues from the market though and focus attention and in-play stats on matches where there is a strong odds-on favourite.
The matches I have researched have distinct potential so we might get some trading action tonight.

19:45 - AFC Wimbledon v Brentford - 2.18 Brentford


19:45 - Accrington v Preston - 2.38 Preston


19:45 - Barnsley v Morecambe - 1.6 Barnsley

  • Championship v League Two - a gap in the leagues that I like to see.
  • Barnsley has won none of their last 9 League Cup matches, the last 3 going to extra time and penalties.
  • Morecambe has not won any of their last 5 League cup matches.
  • We have a team in Barnsley who seem non-plussed by the competition but then we have a Morecambe side who seem unwilling to exploit that fact. Welcome to the League Cup . The Cup that teams love to hate.

19:45 - Birmingham v Crawley Town - 1.38 Birmingham

  • Championship v League Two.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches for Birmingham in the League Cup.1-0 loss and 0-0 in the last 2 matches for Birmingham.
  • Only 1 win in 5 matches for Birmingham at home.
  • No win in 6 matches for Crawley in the League Cup.3 consecutive defeats.
  • Oh dear. The joys of the League Cup. Birmingham look vulnerable but then Crawley look incapable.

19:45 - Bradford v Doncaster - 1.98 Bradford


19:45 - Bristol City v Plymouth - 1.58 Bristol

  • Championship v League One.
  • Plymouth do not tend to last long in the League Cup, only the one match.
  • 4 consecutive 2-1 scorelines for Bristol at home saw 3 defeats.
  • Plymouth tend to crash out in one match in this competition. That is my angle today.

19:45 - Bristol Rovers v Cambridge Utd - 1.94 Bristol Rovers


19:45 - Cardiff v Portsmouth - 1.89 Cardiff


19:45 - Coventry v Blackburn - 2.22 Blackburn


19:45 - Exeter v Charlton - 2.32 Exeter


19:45 - Fleetwood Town v Carlisle - 2.04 Fleetwood


19:45 - Forest Green v MK Dons - 2.76 MK Dons


19:45 - Grimsby v Derby - 1.81 Derby


19:45 - Luton v Ipswich - 2.74 Luton


19:45 - Mansfield v Rochdale - 2.46 Mansfield


19:45 - Millwall v Stevenage - 1.62 Millwall

  • Championship v League Two.
  • Both sides have a poor record in the League Cup and I would not necessarily trust Millwall tonight. I will follow the in-play stats.

19:45 - Norwich v Swindon - 1.36 Norwich

  • Championship v League Two.
  • Norwich is unbeaten in 6 League Cup matches.
  • 7 wins in 8 matches for Norwich at home in the league cup.
  • No win in 3 in the League Cup for Swindon. Both teams scored in Swindon's last 4 league cup matches.
  • I would have to lay Swindon should Swindon score first.

19:45 - Nottm Forest v Shrewsbury - 1.67 Nottm

  • Championship v League One.
  • Nottingham Forest heavy defeats in the League cup came v Tottenham and Arsenal. There is a hint here that Forest give the League Cup a go.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 matches for Shrewsbury came v Chelsea and Sunderland.
  • A feeling that both teams give the League Cup a go. Dare we side with the home team here based on their better league standing?

19:45 - Oxford Utd v Cheltenham - 1.78 Oxford


19:45 - Peterborough v Barnet - 1.83 Peterborough


19:45 - QPR v Northampton - 1.68 QPR

  • Championship v League One.
  • Only 2 wins in 7 league cup matches for QPR.
  • Both teams have scored in 5 of the last 6 matches for QPR.
  • Both teams have scored in Northampton's last 4 league cup matches. I would lay Northampton if Northampton scored first.

19:45 - Rotherham v Lincoln - 2.16 Rotherham


19:45 - Scunthorpe v Notts Co - 1.78 Scunthorpe


19:45 - Sheff Wed v Chesterfield - 1.38 Sheff

  • Only 2 losses recently in the league cup for Championship Sheff Wed v Man City and Stoke.
  • In 2015 Sheff beat Newcastle and Arsenal in the League cup.
  • League Two Chesterfield are poor in the League Cup. 4 of their last 6 league cup matches went to extra time.
  • Chesterfield has scored and conceded in their last 8 league cup matches without winning so that is a ready angle in.

19:45 - Southend v Newport County - 1.77 Southend


19:45 - Wigan v Blackpool - 1.9 Wigan


19:45 - Wolves v Yeovil - 1.27 Wolves

  • Championship v League Two.
  • No draw for Wolves in the League Cup in recent months.
  • 4 consecutive 2-1 wins in the league cup at home for Wolves.
  • No in in 5 matches for Yeovil.
  • It does look about right here. I would lay Yeovil if Yeovil scores first.

19:45 - Wycombe v Fulham - 1.64 Fulham

  • League Two v Championship.
  • No win in 9 matches for Wycombe in the League Cup.
  • On that basis, usual over 2.5 goals (in the Championship) Fulham should assert.

20:00 - Reading v Gillingham - 1.49 Reading

  • Championship v League One.
  • Only 2 losses for Reading in the League cup v Everton and Arsenal suggests Reading could be a force tonight.
  • I think I will go with the market today. I like Reading's record.