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The Champions League is a tough match to get that 'trading angle' into. Less so Southampton v Arsenal. I do think this presents a chance for Arsenal with a Southampton side clearly with one eye on the deckchairs and 99 flakes!

19:45 - Southampton v Arsenal - 2.02 Arsenal

  • 0-5 Arsenal in the last head to head which was in the FA Cup.
  • This is 10th v 6th in the English Premier League.
  • 4 matches remain this season. With Arsenal beating Man Utd, they are 6 points shy of that coveted 4th spot.
  • 8th is the best that Southampton can hope for.

Southampton 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 6 matches.

Southampton other stats

  • 2 consecutive 0-0's is part of a run of 3 in 4 without the saints scoring. Dreaming of a sunny south coast holiday?
  • Failed to score in their last 2 home matches.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 0-0-1-0 scored at home v the top 4 and when they did score 2 v the top 4, they lost 4-2!

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 11 side away.
  • Not scored more than 2 goals in a single game v 9th and higher away but start scoring 2+ v 11th and lower.

Arsenal other stats

  • 4 wins in 6 matches. The defeats were away to London opposition.
  • 5 defeats in 6 aways.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches all season but did fail to score in 2 of their last 3 away.
  • Only 1 away 0-0.
  • 21 of 32 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 19 of 26 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • The first thing to oppose is the 0-0 sequence so I will be laying any late 0-0.
  • I think Arsenal will be heartened by their win against Man Utd, albeit a distracted Man Utd and that momentum could continue against a Southampton team with knotted hankies on their heads.
  • Failing to score in 3 of 4, Saints are un-motivated it seems. Arsenal need to revert to the away form v 11th and lower (2+ goals) and not the away form v 9th and higher (failing to score 2 in a game and not winning).
  • I will be with Arsenal today and oppose any Southampton lead. Saints have struggles to score against the top 4 at home. I think Arsenal will not lose today.
  • Note the strong 2nd half scoring and conceding stats for Arsenal if the match is 0-0 at halftime.

19:45 - Atl Madrid v Real Madrid - 2.74 Atl Madrid and 2.72 Real Madrid

  • The market cannot split these 2 sides.
  • 8 clean sheets in 9 home matches for Atl Madrid in the Champions League will have to be replicated this evening. They are 3-0 down. They cannot afford to concede an away goal as they would then need a 5-1 scoreline to go through.
  • The problem is, Atl Madrid have scored 2-1-1-2-2-0-1 at home in the Champions League. Yes, admittedly, some of these were 2nd leg results after doing the business away so clean sheet priority. But now they need to do something they haven't done. Score 3 goals.
  • Real Madrid have scored and conceded in their last 5 away Champions League matches and they will happily score and concede tonight. The concerns for Atl Madrid is that Real Madrid have scored 2-3-2-3-2 in their away matches in the Champions League.
  • The only value I see is in laying Real Madrid at odds of 1.02 in the 'To Qualify' market. It is unlikely to come off. I mentioned in the first leg that this Atl Madrid side is below their usual standard this season. I am not convinced by the forward line, bar the excellent Griezman. Reliance on Fernando Torres, who was last good back in 1856, is the writing on the wall!
  • Can we really see 3 goals from Atl Madrid tonight? This year Atl Madrid scored 3 v Eibar, Celta Vigo, Valencia, Sevilla and Osasuna but lost 1-2 and 0-3 v Barcelona and Real Madrid at home this season.
  • I said it yesterday. Just because it is a high profile match, if you do not have a strong trading angle, do not trade! My only angle? Laying Real Madrid to qualify at 1.02.