It is Cup day today so 'tone down' the enthusiasm. Focus only on those matches where the patterns are strong enough to stop you in your tracks. I will point these out to you below. I do apologise for my lack of enthusiasm in the Spanish Cup (bar the Barcelona match). Just because I research does not mean I have to play!
My interests today? Fiorentina and Chievo both seem to avoid draws. It is a strong trend. Juventus look strong today. On form they are excellent at home and could score 2/3 goals. Let's hope Atalanta score first. Metz like cup matches going to extra time or penalties. The mischievous amongst you could lay PSG if PSG score first (the odds will be extremely short and our hope will lie solely in a not-too-hot Metz continuing to draw cup matches) although on form PSG are superb at home.
16:30 - Fiorentina v Chievo - 1.64 Fiorentina
- 0-0 and 1-0 Fiorentina in the last 2 head to heads for these Italian Sides.
Fiorentina overall form
- 2 win in 3 matches.
- 8 over 2.5 goals matches in their last 9.
- Scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 matches.
Fiorentina home form
- Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Only 1 loss in 12 home matches was in the Europa League.
Fiorentina Coppa Italia form
- Only 1 draw in their last 17 matches.
- 2 consecutive defeats came at home v Juventus and Carpi.
Fiorentina Coppa Italia home form
- 3 defeats in their last 4 home matches.
- Failed to score last 2 home.
- Only 3 home draws since 2004.
Chievo overall form
- 2 consecutive defeats.
- Only 4 wins in their last 16 away matches.
Chievo Coppa Italia form overall
- Only 1 draw since 2007.
- 6 defeats in their last 7 away.
- The strongest stat? Avoid a draw. Strong for both sides. That is all I can confidently take from this match. Lay any late draw.
17:45 - Bordeaux v Guingamp - 2.14 Bordeaux
- This is the French Coupe de la Ligue.
- All bar one recent head to head between these 2 French Ligue 1 sides have had one goal in them.
Bordeaux overall form
- Only 2 wins in their last 7 matches.
- 0-0-3-0-0-1 scored in recent matches. 3 goals were scored in the Coupe de la Ligue.
- Only 3 losses in 14 home matches.
- Failed to score in 3 of their last 4 home matches.
Bordeaux Coupe de la Ligue form
- Only 1 draw since 2007.
- 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Only Lille have stopped them winning in recent cup matches.
- Bordeaux home Coupe de la Ligue form.
- 7 wins in their last 8 matches. Beaten only by Paris St Germain.
Guingamp overall form
- Only 2 losses in their last 14 matches were 1-0.
- Scored 2 goals in each of 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Only 1 win in their last 7 away matches.
Guingamp Coupe de la Ligue form
- Last 5 matches have gone to either penalties or extra time.
- Last 3 matches away went to extra time or penalties.
- Bordeaux tend to avoid draws but Guingamp tend to draw. So no incongruity. Bordeaux's goal scoring is poor. How can we trust them? Yes, home form is superb.
- A match to avoid despite the work done researching it!
18:00 - Alaves v Deportivo - 2.52 Alaves
- 2-2 from the first leg of this Copa del Rey match saw Alaves take a 0-2 lead only for Deportivo to score a 73rd and a 90th minute goal to equalise.
- This is the 3rd consecutive draw between these 2 sides in head to heads.
- With so many draws I would be keen to lay the late draw here.
18:00 - Cordoba v Alcorcon - 2.34 Cordoba
- This is the second leg of the Copa Del Rey and it is 0-0 from the first leg.
- In fact both of these sides have had 2 consecutive 0-0's. To say I am underwhelmed by these Spanish matches would be an understatement.
- The only angle really is to avoid the 0-0 if there is a 0-0 after 70 minutes. Lay the late 0-0.
18:00 - Villarreal v Sociedad - 1.91 Villareal
- This is the second leg of a Copa Del Rey match where Sociedad won 3-1. Villareal were unbeaten in the previous 9 head to heads.
- Villareal need to win 2-0 today in order to keep this Copa Del rey match alive.
- Only 1 win in 4 home matches in the Copa Del Rey for Villareal.
- Another muddling match I am afraid. There is no evidence that Villareal take this competition seriously. All this and Villareal have such a superb head to head record bar the last Copa Del Rey match.
- Pick your battles.
19:45 - Juventus v Atalanta - 1.46 Juventus
- Juventus tend to win head to heads.
Juventus overall form
- Only 1 loss in 13 matches.
- Unbeaten since 4th October 2015 (could be earlier) at home.
Juventus Coppa Italia form
- Unbeaten in 7 Coppa matches. The last 2 matches went to penalties and extra time.
- Only 1 loss in 9 home matches.
Atalanta overall form
- Only 2 losses in 15 matches, one was a 3-1 loss to Juventus.
- Lost away to Juventus in December 2016.
Atalanta Coppa Italia form
- 14 consecutive matches where at least one team scored 2 or 3 goals.
- Last 4 losses came away.
- Lost their last 4 away matches conceding 3 goals.
- Juventus' home form is compelling isn 't it? Juventus are also solid in recent Coppa matches so should not lose today.
- Atalanta must be opposed if Atalanta score first.
- Will Atalanta concede 2/3 goals again?
19:45 - Southampton v Liverpool - 2.28 Liverpool
- 0-0 the last time these 2 teams met.
- This is the first of two legs in the League Cup. As with the Ath Bilbao v Barcelona first leg match, all is not lost with a narrow defeat today, because it is effectively halftime after this match.
- Liverpool's team v Plymouth did not deliver in the Fa Cup with a 0-0. What team will turn up today?
- I cannot trade in this match at this stage. The second leg will be more telling.
20:05 - Paris St-G v Metz - 1.14 PSG
- PSG have scored 3 goals in each of the last 4 head to heads.
- This is the Coupe de la Ligue today.
PSG form overall
- Scored 2+ goals in 12 of their last 14 matches. Scored 5 -3-7 goals in their last 3 wins.
PSG form at home
- Unbeaten in 25 matches. 22 of those matches saw PSG scoring at least 2 goals.
- PSG coupe de la ligue form.
- 12 consecutive wins. Not conceded 2 goals or more in those 12 matches.
PSG coupe home form
- 14 wins, a draw and a loss in their last 16 home matches.
Metz overall form
- Only 1 win in 14 matches.
- 4 consecutive away defeats without scoring.
- Metz coupe de la ligue matches.
- No win in 90 minutes in their last 8 matches.
- 5 of their last 6 matches went to extra time or penalties.
Metz Coupe de la Ligue away form
- The best Metz can hope for is a draw such is their recent form in the Coupe de la Ligue. Not winning but plenty of draw.
- PSG are simply superb at home and on form are likely to score 2 goals and, having not conceded 2 goals recently should win this.
- 1.14 odds suggests 3/4 goals should be scored by PSG.
20:15 - Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao - 1.18 Barcelona
- This is the second leg of a Copa Del Rey match in which Ath Bilbao won the first leg 2-1.
- Barcelona therefore must win 1-0 to retain parity and 2-0 or more to go through outright. If you remember the research from the first leg, Barcelona tend to win head to heads, and are able to score 3 goals consistently. This matches the projection given by a 1.18 odds quote for Barcelona today.
- Expect a Barcelona win and a hope for 3 + goals from them today.