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SCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP

19:45 - St Johnstone v Motherwell - 2.54 St Johnstone

  • Asian handicap: Motherwell have lost by two or more goals in 6/11 away matches against middle-third teams and they have lost 8/12 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 11/18 St Johnstone home matches.

St Johnstone - 8th

  • Only 2 losses in 10 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 7 came at home v Kilmarnock.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • All defeats v top 3, failing to score at home.

Motherwell - 3rd

  • Failed to score last 3 matches.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 away.
  • No draw in 11 away.
  • 100% wins away v 7th and lower.

Conclusions

  • On seasonal form, Motherwell should get back to winning ways if St Johnstone continue to struggle v top 3...even to score. But do note on ultra recent form, St J have only 2 losses in 10 and Motherwell have failed to score last 3 BUT have 100% wins away v 7th and lower.

Livingston v St Mirren - 1.94 Livingston

  • 1st half outcome: Livingston have drawn the first half in 12/17 home matches as have St Mirren in 7/10 away matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 8/10 Livingston home matches.

Livingston - 5th

  • 4 losses in 5 matches recently.
  • 5 consecutive home wins.
  • 6 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • 67% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 12/15 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • 2-1 and 3-3 v St Mirren this season.

St Mirren - 10th

  • Only 2 wins in 12 matches were 1-0 wins.
  • 3 consecutive draws.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Only 1 away win v 11th.

Conclusions

  • Back 0-0 pre-match? Strong defensive bent from Livingston.
  • Livvy look in good nick to take this today but St Mirren did keep Rangers to 1-0 recently and may offer some resistance but have only 1 away win.

Kilmarnock v Rangers -  1.36 Rangers

  • HT/FT: Rangers have had W/W double results in 6/8 away matches against middle-third teams and they have won 8/9 such matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 12/20 Kilmarnock home matches against top half non-Big One teams.

Kilmarnock - 7th

  • 7 losses ended with 2 consecutive wins scoring 3 goals in each.
  • 0-0-1-3-1 goals conceded at home recently. Take the 3 away (v Celtic) and it looks defensively sound of late.
  • They have conceded last 9 though.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime at home.

Rangers - 2nd

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • Scored last 12 away.
  • Only away loss was recently v bottom of the league.

Conclusions

  • Rangers, despite their solid form, have been suspect in front of goal. 2 goals scored recently but against teams they were expected to score 3+ against, and a 2 shot on target game v Hearts might lead a defensive side like Killy to frustrate them. Clearly though, Killy's defence was breached 3 times by Celtic. 1-0 and 2-1 wins for Rangers already this season suggests that it may be a one-goal-in-it match.

Hibernian v Ross Co - 1.59 Hibs

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 7/9 Hibernian home matches against bottom-six teams and +3.5 goals in 7/12 Hibernian such matches. Ross County have lost 4/5 away matches against top-half teams.

Hibs - 6th

  • Only 3 wins in 11 matches.
  • Only 1 recent loss came v Rangers at home.
  • 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches.
  • Only 2 defeats at home.
  • 2-2 and 2-1 loss v Ross County this season.

Ross County - 9th

  • Only 3 wins in 19 matches came at home.
  • 5 losses in 6 matches away.
  • No win in 10 away.
  • Conceded last 9 away.
  • 21 of 29 goals conceded away came 2nd half.
  • Only 1 away win v Motherwell.

Conclusions

  • Only 3 wins in 11 plays only 3 wins in 19! I do like Hibs home form though. One one recent loss was v Rangers.
  • Do expect goals today. 8 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches for Hibs.

Celtic v Hearts - 1.18 Celtic

  • Match outcome: Celtic have won 15/16 home matches against bottom-six teams while Hearts have lost 8/8 away matches against Big One teams. Celtic have won by two or more goals in 11/14 home matches against bottom-six teams.

Celtic - 1st

  • 16 wins and a loss last 17 matches.
  • All home wins bar a loss v Rangers.
  • 3-1 and 2-0 wins v Hearts already.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.

Hearts - 12th

  • Only 3 wins. 2-3-2 goals scored recently albeit only 1 win...v Rangers.
  • 50% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 7/9 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • 4/4 losses away v the top 4.

Conclusions

  • Hearts fleetingly left the bottom 2, helped by a win v Rangers but in scoring 2-3-2 goals recently they have just the one win so do, on balance, look layable even if scoring 2+ goals. That is, unless they can strangle Celtic's shots on target as they did v Rangers.
  • Season long form is certainly with Celtic who are 2/2 this season v Hearts. Remember sub 1.2 shots and the 20 minute rule (see the DRT Facebook review/preview video for more).

BELGIAN JULIPER LEAGUE

19:30 - Waasland-Beveren v Kortrijk - 2.36 Kortrijk

  • Match outcome: KV Kortrijk have lost 6/10 away matches against bottom-six teams and they have conceded first in 6/9 such matches. There have been +2.5 goals in 11/16 Waasland home matches.

Standard v Club Brugge - 2.32 Club Brugge

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 11/18 Standard Liege home matches and in 11/20 Club Brugge away matches. Club Brugge have drawn the first half in 7/9 away matches against top-six teams.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Luton v Sheff Wed - 2.18 Sheff Wed

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 5/7 Luton home matches against middle-third teams and in 11/18 Sheffield Wed away matches. Sheffield Wed have scored first in 9/11 away matches against bottom-six teams.

Luton - 24th

  • Only 1 win in 11 came at home.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded last 19 and last 9 at home.
  • 53% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 5 home wins v 7th, 13th, (most recent) and 3 of the bottom 5 (2-1).
  • 1-0 loss last head to head.
  • 74% of goals scored and 72% of goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Sheff wed - 11th

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • Loss, Win, loss, Draw away.
  • Scored last 10 away.
  • v 16th and lower away, 4 wins and a draw but 2 losses v 20th and 22nd.

Conclusions

  • Both sides in very poor recent form. Only 1 win in 11 plays only 1 win in 8.
  • Luton are likely to concede at some point. Really poor record. Strong 2nd half goals stats if 0-0 at halftime.
  • Luton have a home win in them (5) but who knows when they turn up? Sheff Wed reasonable record v 16th and lower with 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats.

Bristol City v Derby - 2.36 Bristol City

  • 1st half outcome: Bristol City have lost the first half in 5/8 home matches against middle-third teams and they have conceded first in 11/16 such matches. There have been -2.5 goals in 7/10 Derby away matches against top-half teams.

Bristol City - 7th

  • Odds on the brink of being unwelcoming at 2.36.
  • 4 wins and a loss last 5 matches.
  • 3 1-0 wins recently.
  • Not beaten a top 15 side at home.
  • 1-2 win v Derby last head to head.

Derby - 13th

  • 5 wins in 7 matches.
  • 13 without a win ended with a 2-3 win v Swansea.
  • 2-2-2-1-2-4-3 goals scored recently. Interesting.
  • Conceded last 15 away.
  • Only 1 away win v top 20 was that win v the Swans.

Conclusions

  • Derby are where they are largely down to beating bottom half sides at home. Away, only 1 win in 13 and only 1 away win v top 20 did come last match.
  • Intriguingly, Derby are scoring 2+ goals, as they have done in 6/7 matches. Are they just meeting teams they can cope with all in a cluster?
  • Both sides have recent wins. Bristol 4/5 and Derby 57....hence the odds I suppose. Bristol City have not beaten a top 15 side at home which adds to the confusion.
  • Tough to call but clearly if Derby can score 2 goals v a Bristol City liking the 1-0, then the away side may have it despite a dire away record?

Millwall v Fulham - 2.58 Fulham

  • 1st half outcome: Millwall have won the first half in 5/8 home matches against top-six teams and they have scored first in 7/10 such matches. There have been -1.5 goals in 4/7 Fulham away matches against top-half teams.
  • London Derby. 2.58 the favourite. You know the drill. Soccerstats.com for a neutral possible angle or in-play stats.

Huddersfield v Cardiff - 2.5 Huddersfield

  • 1st half outcome: Huddersfield have drawn the first half in 5/7 home matches against top-half teams and there have been -2.5 goals in 4/7 Huddersfield such matches. Cardiff have conceded first in 9/13 away matches.
  • As above. 2.5 the favourite. Tough competitive league. Leave alone or find a neutral play OR split these 2 teams via the in-play stats.

20:00 - Stoke v Preston - 2.2 Stoke

  • +2.5 goals: There have been +2.5 goals in 8/10 Stoke home matches against top-six teams and in 6/9 Preston away matches against bottom-six teams. Preston have conceded first in 11/20 away matches.

Stoke - 20th

  • 4 wins in 6 matches.
  • 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 at home.
  • 4 losses and a win v 3rd at home v the top 7.
  • 3-1 loss last head to head.

Preston - 6th

  • 3 wins and a draw last 4.
  • 3 draws and 2 wins last 5 away.
  • Only 1 win away v the top 18.
  • 10 of 13 goals scored away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • A struggling side with 4 wins in 6 and 4 wins and 2 draws last 6 at home. Stoke season long are struggling but are putting together quite a run. Their record, in context, v the top 7 is poor at home. Can Preston exploit that and halt this potential season-saving run Stoke are having? Preston have only 1 away win v the top 18 and play 20th today but that is a sign Preston don't travel well.

Reading v West Brom - 2.16 West Brom

  • 1st half outcome: Reading have drawn the first half in 8/9 home matches against top-six teams while there have been -2.5 goals in 11/14 WBA away matches. WBA have drawn the first half in 5/8 away matches against bottom-half teams.

Reading - 16th

  • No win in 6 albeit 4 1-1 draws.
  • Draw, Loss, Draw at home.
  • 1-1-0-1 goals scored recently at home.
  • 47% 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 1-1 draw v West Brom last head to head.
  • 2/2 losses at home v top 3.

West Brom - 1st

  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins after a run of 7 without a win.
  • Scored last 10 away.
  • 38% 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten away v 10th and lower.
  • 15 of 23 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Draw worst case for West Brom who have only 2 away losses and are unbeaten away v 10th and lower. Back on a winning footing too playing a Reading unable to shake off those 1-1 draws.
  • Reading look layable if leading on that basis and the fact they have scored 1-1-0-1 goals recently at home.

Honourable mentions....

19:45 - Inter v Napoli - 2.14 Inter.

  • The Italian Cup. One side came back from 0-2 down to win the Milan Derby in style. The other lost to lowly Lecce at home! The momentum is clearly with Inter Milan, whether a desire for a cup run is, we'll soon find out.

SPANISH COPA DEL REY

20:00 - Athletico Bilbao v Granada - 1.77 Atl Bilbao

  • Recent scalp of Barcelona in the cup for Bilbao sees them unbeaten in 6 cup matches now. Granada did beat Valencia 2-1 - the only top flight side they have met in the cup recently.
  • An intriguing cup tie and if I was the Granada manager, I'd get the bleep out of this cup and look to cement another season in the Primeira Liga.

FRENCH CUP

17:30 - Dijon v PSG - 1.33 PSG

  • 2 Ligue 1 sides. 8 clean sheets in 9 PSG Coupe de France matches suggests they are up for the cup and Dijon will have trouble even scoring.
  • 3-0 loss in this competition to PSG in 2019 suggests a likely scoreline today.

20:05 Lyon v Marseille - 2.22 Lyon

  • The less readable of the 2 cup matches sees 2 reasonably strong Ligue 1 sides play each other. In-play stats please!

In the Turkish cup at 17:30 Alanyaspor hold a slender lead over Galatasary who are home today and 2.04 favourites. Are Gala up for the cup?

DUTCH CUP

17:30 - AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda - 1.2 AZ Alkmaar

  • Gap in leagues here.  AZ Eredivisie and NAC Breda Eerste Divisie.

19:45 - Vitesse Arnhem v Ajax - 1.64 Ajax

  • Not sure of the cup credentials of these 2 Eredivisie sides so in-play stats for me.

PORTUGUESE CUP

20:45 - Porto v Academico de Viseu - 1.16 Porto

  • 1.16 odds should have you eyeing a value halftime play. See the DRT Facebook video.

GREEK CUP

16:00 - Olympiakos v Lamia - 1.16 Olympiakos

  • 0-0 from the first leg. Oly have been exceptional in the domestic league and expected to bring it home. They even won at the weekend down to 10 men.