Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

2 standout matches yesterday. I put forth laying Kilmarnock if Kilmarnock scored first. 1-0 turned into 1-2 for a nice trade. Killy went on to win.
Morton was another standout yesterday. A team utterly dominating via the in-play stats. 0-2 though. 2 goals in the 85th and 92nd.
The peripheral tennis tournaments are still in experimental mode, albeit 3 out of 3 shouts yesterday. I will be very discerning in my tennis trading. We see a lot of poorly ranked players in these peripheral events, and these players are not poorly ranked for their punter-friendly consistent play!
See you @drtclub throughout the day.

12:20 - Bayern Munich v Arsenal - 1.8 Bayern

  • The 'International Champions Cup', an exercise in making money and little else.
  • Last year, Bayern drew 3-3 with Milan, beat Inter 1-4 and lost 0-1 to Real Madrid.
  • Arsenal did not play in this ICC event last year.
  • A match for the in-play stats folks. Free in-play stats at www.flashscore.com (click on the LIVE CENTRE) or www.williamhill.com.

17:00 - F91 Dudelange v APOEL - 2 APOEL

  • Luxembourg v Cyprus in this Champions League (CL for short) match.
  • It's 1-0 APOEL from the first leg. No away goal conceded. It is advantage APOEL. IF Apoel score today, F91 will require 3 goals in reply without conceding again.
  • No win in 8 Champions League matches for F91 from 2012, 2014, 2016 to now.
  • 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 1-1 in 4 home CL matches for F91 albeit spread from 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017.
  • Only 2 defeats in 8 CL matches for APOEL. They feel a little more street-smart than F91.
  • 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 win last 3 head to heads. It seems both sides play a defensive match.
  • I would consider backing 1-1 here. 1-1 suits APOEL and gives F91 a chance (if F91 score first). It is a trading angle.

18:15 - Rosenborg v Dundalk - 1.52 Rosenborg

  • 1-1 from the first leg for Norwegian Rosenborg and Irish Dundalk.Dundalk scored first.
  • Rosenborg have that away goal so merely need a clean sheet today in order to qualfy in the easiest fashion.
  • Rosenborg scored and conceded in 5 of 6 matches in the CL. 6 wins in 7 matches at home for Rosenborg in the CL does suggest struggles for Dundalk.
  • 5 draws, 2 defeats and a win in 8 CL matches for Dundalk.They have only the one win.
  • 2 consecutive 1-1's for Dundalk and a 1-1 would do for them today in keeping the tie alive.
  • Dundalk are yet to win in 4 CL aways.
  • I do think Rosenborg will not lose today. I will not discount a draw but will be with Rosenborg should Dundalk score first.

18:30 - FC Copenhagen v Zilina - 1.36 FC Copenhagen

  • Denmark v Slovakia in this Champions League (CL) match and FC Copenhagen are used to going deep into this tournament. Last year for example, FC played Porto and Leicester.
  • 0-1-1-0-1-0-0-0-1 goals conceded by FC in the CL suggests Zilina can be layed if Zilina score first.
  • It is 1-3 FC from the first leg and should be tie over. We cannot be sure if this is true form as 3 goals came after a Zilina red card.
  • Zilina are not a regular CL player and should not be winning today. Remember that FC can afford a 0-2 defeat today and still qualify so this is not a must win.
  • 2 consecutive home 0-0's albeit v Porto and Leicester for FC.

19:00 - Ludogorets v Zalgiris - 1.21 Ludogorets

  • No win in 8 matches for Ludogorets.2-1 to Zalgiris from the first leg sees Ludogorets with the away goal.
  • A 1-0 today will see Ludogorets through. The market expects despite their dire CL record.
  • The last 3 home teams Ludogorets played in the CL were PSG (1-3 loss), Arsenal (2-3 loss) and Basel (0-0) so we should expect them to play as per the market.
  • Lithuanian side Zalgiris's only win in 9 CL matches was the win v Ludogorets.
  • They have a poor away record. But if they score an away goal, they will throw a spanner in the works. It will be 1-3 on aggregate with Ludogorets requiring 2 goals to remain alive.
  • The market is emphatic here. Home side has enough to see them through and given they have flexed their CL muscles v teams far better than Zalgiris, I am with Ludogorets today too

19:15 - NK Maribor v Zrinjski - 1.71 NK

  • 1-2 to Maribor in the first leg sees them very lucky here. They had a man sent off in the 68th minute. And they scored care of a 90th minute penalty.
  • Still, NK has those 2 away goals. If Zrinjski win 0-1, NK will still qualify on the away goals rule.
  • Slovenia v Bosnia. Tough to quantify these 2 teams.
  • The first goal will be the key goal. A match for in-play stats

19:30 - Red Bull Salzburg v Hibernians - 1.09 Red Bull

  • 0-3 and an 86th minute red card for Red Bull in the first leg suggests game over.
  • Do remember that this is not a must-win for Red Bull . It is a must not lose 0-3 or 0-4.
  • Ain't gonna happen. Expectation is for a repeat of the dose from Red Bull today.

19:45 - Celtic v Linfield - 1.05 Celtic

  • a very professional 0-2 win for Celtic in the first leg.

19:45 - Legia Warsaw v IFK Mariehamn - 1.13 Legia

  • Poland v Finland in this second leg CL match.
  • 0-3 First leg. First goal was a penalty. IFK did have a man sent off but Legia had scored their 3 goals already.
  • A simple task but again not a must-win for Legia. They could take it easy and ensure qualification without winning.

20:15 - Honved v Hapoel Beer Sheva - 2.1 Hapoel

  • 2-1 Hapoel from the first leg. Honved have that away goal so it is game on.
  • Honved need only a 1-0 in order to qualify in the easiest fashion.
  • Hapoel away goal and it makes Honved's task that much harder.
  • 0-0, 0-0, 5-2 loss to Celtic for Hapoel away in the CL. 0-0 will do for them but an away goal of course should nail it.
  • Honved do not have any Champions League experience.
  • A match for in-play stats but a nod towards Beer Sheva who had a great run in the Champions League last year.

20:00 - Buckie Thistle v Dundee United - 1.34 Dundee United

  • Football League v Championship side in the Scottish league cup. The in-play stats were excellent last night in highlighting some good trades.Only 1 loss in 6 for Dundee United in the League cup suggests that they are up for the cup.
  • League 2 side Cowdenbeath beat Buckie Thistle 4-2 in July suggesting a Championship side such as Dundee United should have too much for Buckie Thistle.

TENNIS

It's experiment time. I tend to focus on Grand Slam events and pre-Grand Slam warm-up events. So I am jumping in the deep end here looking at peripheral events. Yesterday I tweeted 3 profitable trades and for me the ideal is to maintain a focus on players we know. I will be tweeting today @drtclub if there are some strong trades.

WTA Gstaad

Sara Sorribes Tormo v Louisa Chirico - 1.98 Chirico

  • 82nd v 67th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Looking at form, these 2 are in poor form. Looking at the odds, it suggests a 3 setter. The market cannot split these 2.
  • 4 consecutive 3 setters on clay for Tormo.
  • 5 consecutive clay court defeats for Chirico ended with a win at Gstaad 7-6 6-4.
  • Leave alone if you want or expect a 3 setter.

Tamara Korpatsch v Maria Sakkari - 1.6 Sakkari

  • 140th v 96th.
  • Now you see why I prefer Grand Slams. Can we rely upon these poorly ranked players?
  • No head to heads.
  • Sakkari lost to the likes of Vekic and Konta on grass and her other loss was via a retirement.
  • Korpatsch tends to go through qualifying to get to Grand Slams but did not get through qualifying for the French Open and Wimbledon.
  • Sakkari beat 1.31 fav barthel first leg which suggests she may have some fight if going down a set. I will want to back Sakkari if Sakkari loses the first set.

Anett Kontaveit v Anna Kalinskaya - 1.13 Anett

  • 73rd v 145th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Kontaveit has had a good season. Quarters in Rome, winner on grass at s-Hertogenbosch, and taking a set off Wozniacki at Wimbledon.
  • For me, Anett looks more than capable on clay.
  • Kalin went through qualifiers to get to this stage at Gstaad.
  • 2 sets were 3 setters in the qualifiers which tells me if Anna wins the first set, she will not win 2-0.

Rebecca Sramkova v Carina Witthoeft - 1.33 Carina

  • 123rd v 69th.
  • It's 1-1 in head to heads from 2016, Rebecca won the last head to head v a 1.38 odds Carina.
  • Carina has a habit in tournaments of winning 2 matches, then losing.
  • Sramkova did not get through qualifying for Wimbledon and French Open.
  • I don't have a strong opinion on this match.

WTA Bucharest

Julia Goerges v Aliaksandra Sasnovich - 1.45 Goerges

  • 45th v 91st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Bucharest is clay court.
  • 7 defeats in 10 matches for Alia. Julia reached the grass final at Mallorca.
  • Another uninspiring set of stats for both players - remember that you can choose your battles.

Cagla Buyukakcay v Ana Bogdan - 1.6 Ana

  • 181st v 112th - again I ask - can we trust such poorly ranked players?
  • Bogdan is a Romanian at a home tournament so note that. She may gain a booster.
  • Cagla is generally a 60K and 100K tournament player. Bogdan is limited too.
  • She got through qualifying at the French Open but lost first round.
  • Faith in the local player at their home event? If so, do not expect Ana to lose.

Elena-Gabriela Ruse v Carla Suárez Navarro - 1.11 Navarro

  • 321st v 25th. Rankings are transferred to the market. This should be a 2-0 Carla.
  • Ruse is a Romanian in her home event. If you are seeking an upset, lay Carla at 1.12 -l ow odds - low liability, but Carla is a class act.
  • Stosur and Halep are the last 2 players to defeat Carla on clay. Ruse may gain a boost from a home event bur realistically this should be a 2-0 to Carla.

Anastasija Sevastova v Danka Kovinic - 1.26 Seva

  • 26th v 108th.
  • In 2015, Kovinic won the head to head.
  • Sevastova won the Mallorca grass court tournament.
  • 9 wins in 12 matches on clay for Sevastova.
  • Danka is good at her level. 2 finals in 60K and 100K events suggests some talent on clay.
  • 3 of her wins in the 100K Budapest event were 3 setters so let's hope Danka wins the first set as she is layable if doing so.

ATP Umag

Jiri Vesely v Radu Albot - 1.26 Jiri

  • 58th v 81st.
  • Umag is clay court.
  • No head to heads.
  • Tough to quantify the form of these 2. Nothing stands out.
  • 10 wins in 12 matches for Jiri on clay. His losses were v Agut and Sock - solid enough yardsticks.
  • Having lost to Sock in Rome, Jiri beat him in the French Open. He seems to like clay.
  • 4 consecutive Challenger tour events for Albot on grass.
  • It seems to me Jiri is playing at a higher level on clay and delivering. I do not expect Jiri to lose 2-0.

Ivan Dodig v Marco Cecchinato - 1.49 Marco

  • 253rd v 157th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Not a match for me folks.

David Goffin v Attila Balazs - 1.12 Goffin

  • 10th v 272nd.
  • No head to heads.
  • We have to be wary of the 'Thiem in Antalya' effect when we see a standout top 10 player at a peripheral event. Is he there for the appearance fee? Thiem you will recall was the only top 30 player at Antalya and lost in 2 straight sets to 264th in the world!
  • If you sniff a conspiracy, lay the Goff at 1.13. He is , all things being equal, a 2-0 winner waiting to happen here.
  • Nadal and Cilic are the last 2 winners on clay over the Goff.
  • Attila has gone through qualifiers to get here.2 of 3 wins were 3 setters.

Aljaz Bedene v Paolo Lorenzi - 1.56 Aljaz

  • Bedene should be a familiar name.
  • 68th v 38th.
  • He beat Lorenzi in a Challenger event this year 6-4 7-6.
  • Bedene is a battler. 3 set (first to 2), 2 set, 3 set (first to 2), 5 sets (Grand Slam), 4 sets (Grand Slam), 3 set loss (Grand Slam, tie breaker and 7-5), then 3 setter Umag first leg.
  • 2 4 setters for Lorenzi too at Wimbledon.
  • Bedene has good form on clay.Lorenzi won a recent clay court Challenger event.
  • On form, I see Bedene being very competitive. I cannot see him losing 2-0. I hope Paolo wins the first set. I would be keen to back Aljaz at 1.8+ odds

ATP Newport

Denis Kudla v Ivo Karlovic - 1.29 Ivo

  • Tie breaker Ivo.
  • 145th v 22nd. Kudla is American.
  • Kudla won in Madrid on clay in 3 tie breakers. Again with Ivo, he may be layable at 1.3 (better at lower odds if winning first set). Kudla could nick a tie breaker. he has a history of doing so.

Tobias Kamke v Adrian Mannarino - 1.29 Adrian

  • 141st v 51st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Mannarino reached the grass final at Antalya and had 2 5 setters in Wimbledon and lost to Novak.
  • I like Mannarino's grass court form and will expect him not to lose 2-0.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert v Adrian Menendez-Maceira - 1.34 Herbert

  • 86th v 175th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Not for me. Nothing I can get my teeth into.

John Isner v Sam Groth - 1.39 Isner

  • 24th v 197th.
  • 3-0 Isner head to heads in Davis Cup matches. The first set was a tie breaker.
  • This suggests you may want to lay Isner at 1.39 in the hope the first set becomes a tie breaker. We could see the odds rise.
  • Newport is a grass court event.
  • It takes a good un to beat Isner, or, as in Sela's case, for Isner to keep serving up tie breakers and the opponent to advantage from the tie breakers.
  • Groth has gone through qualifiers to get here.
  • A semi finalist twice for Groth albeit in Challenger events.
  • Isner really should be winning but as a tie breaker afficionado, he can give his opponent a shot.

Lukas Lacko v Matthew Ebden - 1.68 Lacko

  • 103rd v 304th.
  • Last head to head 2015.
  • Ebden tends to have to fight through qualifiers. In fact he failed to get through qualifiers at Ilkley on grass, in a Challenger event.
  • 110th, 35th, 139th are players beating Lacko recently.
  • Again not a match which attracts my interest.

ATP Bastad

Renzo Olivo v Diego Schwartzman - 1.2 Diego

  • 88th v 34th.
  • Schwartzman has won the last 4 head to heads, the last 2 were 3 setters.
  • This is a clay court event. Olivo is the player who beat 1.06 shot Tsonga at Wimbledon. Enough to lay Diego at 1.2? Better yet lay Diego if Diego wins the first set.
  • That is the value call here.
  • Cilic, Nishikori, Sock and Djokovic are the last 4 players to beat Diego on clay. So it will be speculative laying Diego at 1.2 or after a 1st set win.

Pablo Carreno Busta v Andrey Kuznetsov - 1.72 Pablo

  • 20th v 87th.
  • 1-4 Andrey in head to heads.
  • Pablo won at 1.77 odds last head to head in 3 sets.
  • Busta retired at Wimbledon so we don't know whether he is injured or not.
  • Busta is solid on grass when fit - beating Mayer, Dimitrov, Raonic in the French Open.
  • Kuznetsov on clay is good, taking Andy to 4 sets French Open.
  • I would lay Pablo if Pablo wins the first set. In fact there is an argument for laying the first set winner - albeit we need to know Pablo is not carrying an injury.

Henri Laaksonen v Pablo Cuevas - 1.25 Cuevas

  • 111th v 26th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Thiem (twice) and Verdasco the players to have beaten Cuevas on clay recently.
  • Henri reached the quarters in the Bastad Challenger.
  • Cuevas should bring it home really.

David Ferrer v Dustin Brown - 1.26 Ferrer

  • 32nd v 75th.
  • 4-0 Ferrer in head to heads.
  • 3 of the matches were 3 setters, 2 were in first -to-2 set matches.
  • Ferrer on clay is good. He has met Nishikori and Lopez of late and lost to them.
  • I cannot see anything in Brown's form on clay to suggest he can threaten Ferrer.