Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

It was April Fool's Day yesterday by the look of it. Russia failed to score against Kazakhstan, Portugal lost 0-2 to Cape Verde and Ukraine were held to a 1-1 draw by the might of Latvia.

A poor set of matches today and a probable day off for me.

Where I mention BANKER below, this signifies those matches where I think the favourites should win. These matches I would personally prioritise as regards DRT.

Remember the strategies:

  • Lay the 0-0 halftime score in certain signalled matches

  • Lay the 0-0 2nd half in matches where goals were expected but have not yet materialised

  • Lay the 2-2 scoreline, especially early on in matches. 2-2 shows us that teams are scoring and conceding.

  • Lay the away team leading 0-2 before halftime, especially if they are favourites. The home team is usually galvanised by the halftime team talk.

  • Lay the underdog if they score first in certain matches (especially BANKER matches where I would back the BANKERS if they conceded first at enhanced odds)

  • Lay the underdog  scoring early in the first half, in the HALF TIME market , especially in BANKER matches.

3:30pm - Blektini Stargard v Lech Poznan  - 1.51 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a polish cup match between a 2 Liga side and a top flight side.

Blektini

  • No draw in 8 matches in all competitions.
  • Have won all of their cup matches in 2014 and 2015 although, not being a Polish football expert, I am not sure of the calibre of the oppponents beaten.
  • Interestingly , they did just beat a top flight side home and away 2-0 in the cup.
  • 4 consecutive home wins.

Lech Poznan

  • Only 2 defeats in 27 matches sees Lech Poznan tough to beat in all competitions.
  • 2 losses only in their last 12 away matches.
  • WDWW ( W=Win, D=Draw) in their last 4 cup matches.
  • 2 recent comprehensive away cup wins have come v i Liga and 11 Liga sides. Note inbetween those matches, they did lose away in the cup to 11th in I liga

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Blektini like the cup but are 2 tiers down in the league. Lech have shown recent comprehensive winning form in the cup away to I Liga and II Liga sides , but spoil that with a loss to 11th in I liga just to put a spanner in the works.
  • Blektini recently won 2-0 home and away v a top flight side, making this an intriguing Polish Cup match. I may look via the inplay stats if Blektini take the lead, as I'll want to see some positives from Lech Poznan who are, on form, the better side. They rarely lose matches, 2 losses in 27 matches which suggests they have the mentality of a team not used to losing.
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5pm - Chernomorets Odesa v Dnipro  - 1.5 away

Standout Stats

  • This is a Ukrainian cup match between 10th and 3rd in the Ukrainian Premier league
  • Dnipro have won the last head to head, 2-1 at home.

Chernomorets

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches, and one of those was in a friendly
  • Only 3 losses in 26 home matches, and 2 of those were v Shakhtar Donetsk so solid look to home form in all competitions.
  • A bit hit and miss in the cup. Went out to a Persha Liga side last time out.
  • Unbeaten at home in 4 cup matches, since 2010, beating Dnipro 2-1 in 2013

Dnipro

  • Unbeaten in 13 matches in all competitions.
  • 4 1-0 wins in their last 5 matches.
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches. Ajax won 1-0
  • Only 1 loss in 7 away matches in all competitions was that 1-0 v Ajax
  • 6 clean sheet wins in the cup in their last 8 cup matches. Of course one of the defeats was away to Chernomorets in 2013
  • Their last 5 away cup wins were all to nil. Clean sheet = victory!.
  • Only 2 losses in 8 aways, one was said 2-1 v Chernomorets and the other a 1-0 loss to Volyn.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • Interesting match as the home side don't tend to lose at home, unless it's big guns Shakhtar Donetsk. In the cup though, Chernomorets look vulnerable despite beating Dnipro in 2013.
  • The away side have a strong tendency towards clean sheets. Trust them with a clean sheet and you'll likely see a victory but do note that Chernomorets were one of only 2 sides to score against Dnipro in the cup recently.
  • Intriguing affair! If I am iffy about the home side, I'd lay them if they score first.
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6:30pm - Juve Stabia v Aversa Normanna  - 1.52 home

Standout Stats

  • This is the Italian Liga Pro Girone 3 and I am afraid my expertise does not stretch to such a lowly league. The match is likely to be illiquid too which will negate any trading. Next please!
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6:30pm - Kickers Offenbach v Zweibrucken  - 1.17 home BANKER

Standout Stats

  • This is the sudwest Regionalliga and as above is a match I will only take a cursory glance at. Likely we will see another illiquid market.
  • This is top v bottom in the league so the home team are obvious favourites and these odds, you know, suggest a goal before halftime, and a 3/4 goal haul for the home side.
  • Kickers are unbeaten in their last 23 matches. They are unbeaten in their last 17 home matches , winning all bar 4 draws ( 3 were 0-0)
  • Zweibrucken are on a 7 match losing streak, but have only lost their last 3 matches 1-0. They have trouble scoring goals having failed to score in 6 matches .
  • 5 losses in their last 6 away matches.

Profitable In-Play Opportunities

  • A win to nil looks on the cards today if Zweibrucken continue to fail to score. I would look at 1-0, 3-0, 4-0 as potential scorelines if keeping faith in the failure to score. Kickers have been excellent at home and really should win, although I would prefer better than a 1-0 ( Zwei have 3 consecutive 1-0 losses).
  • One of the better matches for a DRT but likely an illiquid market in a day I think where my focus will be on researching the weekend matches  - a return to European leagues I hope!
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