Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

As with yesterday, it's a niggly coupon today. Better to focus on the standouts - Celtic unbeaten this season; West Ham don't do 0-0's nor do they beat top 11 teams; Pescara have not won a home match. I will do a live chat on Twitter this evening at 19:45 @drtclub.

19:45 - Celtic v Aberdeen - 1.41 Celtic

  • 4 consecutive Celtic wins in the Scottish Premier League.
  • 1st v 3rd but a 24 point gap.

Celtic 100% stats

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Not lost at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Celtic other stats

  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home clean sheets.
  • No draws at home.
  • Led at halftime in 9/11 at home.

Aberdeen 100% stats

  • No draw in 10 away matches.
  • No away match with exactly 2 goals.

Aberdeen other stats

  • 4 consecutive wins.
  • Lost 4-1 and 0-1 to Celtic already this season.
  • Solid form but lost to 1st and 2nd away - scoring in each match.

Conclusions

  • Good bit of recent form for Aberdeen but they have lost twice to Celtic this season.
  • Back Celtic to lead at halftime? They have done so in 9/11 home matches.
  • Lay Aberdeen if Aberdeen score first, and they have scored away v the top 2 this season.

19:45 - Hearts v Rangers - 2.54 Rangers

  • The home team has tended to have the advantage in head to heads.
  • These are top 4 teams in the Scottish Premier league.

Hearts 100% stats

  • No opponent has led at halftime at home.

Hearts other stats

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • 2 consecutive losses v top 4 teams - meet another today.

Rangers 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.

Rangers other stats

  • 4 defeats this season all v top 4 teams.
  • Failed to score only twice.

Conclusions

  • Home side tends to remain unbeaten in head to heads. Enough to side with hearts today? Note Rangers tend to score so expect a goal from them at some stage.

19:45 - West Ham United v Manchester City - 1.59 City

  • 0-5 Man City win very recently in head to heads.
  • 3 top 10 teams  meet today.

West Ham Utd 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not beaten any top 11 team.
  • Scored and conceded all matches v the top 5.
  • Not scored in both halves at home.
  • Not conceded a goal first 15 mins of home matches.

West Ham Utd other stats

  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • 3 wins last 4 at home.
  • No draw 5 at home.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Huge 2nd half scoring and conceding bias as a result of the above.

Man City 100% stats

  • No draw away.
  • No 0-0.

Man City other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • 3 defeats in 4 away.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • 10 goals scored last 15 mins of away matches.

Conclusions

  • Both teams are highly likely to score based on West Ham's stats. City have only 4 clean sheets too and failed to score in only 3 matches so strengthen that.
  • West Ham have a very strong 2nd half scoring and conceding bias despite City having only 1 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Like Everton, City and West Ham tend not to do 0-0's.
  • I would have to side with City today given West Ham just cannot beat the top 10.....yet.

19:45 - Blackburn Rovers v Leeds United - 2.48 Leeds

  • Another match with not-a-strong favourite.
  • 2nd bottom v 4th in the English Championship. You'd have thought Leeds would be stronger favourites?

Blackburn Rovers 100% stats

  • All home defeats v top 11 teams.

Blackburn Rovers other stats

  • Only 1 win in 9 was at home to....Newcastle - the only win at home v top 11 sides.
  • Scored in their last 8 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.

Leeds United 100% stats

  • No 0-0.

Leeds other stats

  • 6 wins in their last 8 matches.
  • Conceded in their last 6 away matches.
  • Only 1 away draw.
  • Losses away v 18th, 19th and 20th but are unbeaten v bottom 4 teams.

Conclusions

  • Strange market given we have 2nd bottom in the league playing 4th in the league. Blackburn's win over Newcastle was not the usual v top 12. They tend to lose.
  • Lay any late 0-0.
  • Both teams could score with Leeds not losing.

19:45 - Newcastle United v QPR - 1.4 Newcastle

  • Newcastle can potentially go top with a win today.

Newcastle 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • No 0-0.

Newcastle other stats

  • Only 1 draw.
  • 4-0-3-4 scored last 4 at home.
  • No draw in 18 matches.
  • 2-4 goals scored in all home wins.

QPR 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No draw away v top 17 sides.
  • No match with exactly 4 goals.

QPR other stats

  • 2 consecutive away wins.
  • 11 of 13 matches either 0-0 or 1-0 at halftime away.
  • 11 of 13 goals scored 2nd half away.

Conclusions

  • It looks like we can lay any late draw here.
  • QPR halftime scores likely to be a 1-0 or 0-0 statistically - lay the 0-0 in the halftime score last late as possible.
  • Newcastle at their best will score 2-4 goals today. I would back Newcastle if QPR scored first, as long as Newcastle don't do a Norf Landan - i.e play like Spurs and Arsenal last night!

19:45 - Pescara v Fiorentina - 1.88 Fiorentina

  • These 2 have not met in Italian Seria A since 2013.
  • Pescara, bottom of the league, should be a reliable side to oppose.

Pescara 100% stats

  • No win at home.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.
  • Not scored in both halves.

Pescara other stats

  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • No win in 19 matches.
  • Only scored 2 goals once at home.

Fiorentina 100% stats

  • No away 0-0.
  • No draw at halftime away.

Fiorentina other stats

  • 3-2-3-3 goals scored in their last 4 matches. Beware Pescara.
  • Failed to score only 3 times.
  • 14 consecutive matches without a 0-0 at halftime.
  • 4 wins and a loss away v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Pescara cannot score 2 goals regularly at home so if scoring first, I would back Fiorentina.
  • Do not expect a 0-0.
  • Fiorentina are in a good bit of goal scoring form and could score 2/3 goals again today.
  • Fiorentina have not had a draw at halftime away (0-0 is a draw so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market).

19:45 - Burton Albion v Fulham - 2.04 Fulham

  • 1-1 in the most recent head to head in the English Championship.

Burton Albion 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches at home.

Burton other stats

  • 7 losses and 2 wins in their last 9 matches.
  • 4 consecutive home defeats.
  • Conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Very mixed form v top 12 (Fulham 11th) lost to 1st, 2nd, 5th, 10th but beat 6th, 7th, and 12th.

Fulham 100% stats

  • Unbeaten v 16th and lower away (Burton are 21st in the league).
  • Only scored 1 goal max and remained unbeaten away v 18th and lower.

Fulham other stats

  • Only 3 losses in 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 8 goals scored away in the 31st-45th minutes.

Conclusions

  • Fulham's form away v bottom teams is unbeaten form but they cannot score that 2nd goal. Still I would lay Burton if Burton score first as they have conceded in their last 12 matches.
  • Not an appealing match other than that. 1-1, 0-1 appeals early on and will appeal if the match is 0-0 for a while.

20:00 - Manchester United v Hull City - 1.2 Man Utd

Man Utd 100% stats

  • Not lost to nil at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.

Man Utd other stats

  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Back to 1-1 sequences (3 back end November ended with a 6 match winning run).
  • Scored last 12 matches.
  • All wins v 15th and lower scoring 2-4 goals.

Hull City 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • All defeats away v top 10.
  • All defeats home and away v top 6.
  • Not scored in both halves away.

Conclusions

  • We should not see a 0-0 here.
  • Note Man Utd are back with those pesky 1-1 draws. I would lay any late 1-1 draw as they ended their last sequence.
  • Hull could concede at least 2 goals today.
  • Hull can keep a 0-0 at halftime so note that.

20:00 - Stoke City v Everton - 2.68 Everton

  • What does the market tell you? As is the theme this week, 2.4+ odds tells us the market is not confident in the favourite that they have chosen.
  • 2 top 9 teams in the premiership.

Stoke City 100% stats

  • Not beaten any top 12 team (Everton are 7th).
  • Not scored 2 goals at home v top 12 teams.
  • All wins at home by 2 goals.
  • No home match with total goals of 3.

Stoke City other stats

  • Scored and conceded in 5 of their last 6 matches.
  • Failed to score only 4 times.
  • Only 1 0-0.
  • 3+ goals conceded v top 5 teams and 1 goal max conceded v 6th-8th at home.

Everton 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • Not led at halftime away.

Everton other stats

  • 4 wins and a draw last 5 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Conceded in all away matches v top 14 teams.
  • 11 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Everton's away form is really bitty but they are in great RECENT form and that may swing it for me today.
  • Given Stoke have not beaten the top 12 I would lay Stoke if Stoke scored first.
  • Note Everton are a really strong 2nd half scoring side. Note too that Everton so far do not do 0-0's!

20:00 - Atlético Madrid v Barcelona - 2.38 Barcelona

  • This is the first leg of the Spanish Copa Del Rey and Barcelona showed in their first leg loss to Ath Bilbao that you don't have to win the first leg.
  • That makes this match unappealing. Both teams know they will get a 2nd chance to win on aggregate if they do not win today.
  • Atl Madrid have a win and a draw in their last 2 head to heads.