Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

A primary focus today on league matches (SPL and Spanish Primera Liga) above any cup matches. The cup matches I think should have an in-play stats focus. There are some good matches today. PSG seem to be up for the cup as do Bayern Munich; For me Huddersfield should focus on the English Championship (3rd!!) and not the FA Cup. Will Man City's 1.15 odds translate into the usual 3/4 goals?

17:30 - Niort v Paris St-G - 1.23 PSG

  • This is the Coupe de France. Niort are a Ligue 2 side, 12th in the league. All logic tells us PSG will push them aside. But is PSG up for the cup?

Niort overall form

  • 3 defeats in their last 4 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 7 home matches.

Nior Coupe de France form

  • 3 consecutive clean sheets v lower league teams.

PSG Coupe de France form

  • We know PSG's league form so let's move straight to the Coupe de France.
  • 14 consecutive wins - 11 goals in their last 2 matches.
  • 15 wins and a draw in their last 16 away matches.

Conclusions

  • The key element with the cup is whether the red hot fav is up for the cup. There is no doubt with PSG and on that basis they really should be winning with greater ease than a 1.23 odds quote might suggest.

17:30 - Hamburg v Mgladbach - 2.6 Mgladbach

  • I am shrugging my shoulders here in this German Cup match. I do prefer cup matches where there is a noticeable gap in leagues. These 2 teams are in the German Bundesliga.
  • Further, 2.6 odds suggests the market cannot split the teams. An in-play stats play (if any) for me today.

18:30 - Osasuna v Villarreal - 2.12 Villareal

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 Villareal wins.

Osasuna 100% stats

  • No home win.
  • All defeats v top 6 teams, Villareal are 6th.

Osasuna other stats

  • In 9 of their last 12 matches, they have conceded 3 goals at least.
  • Only 1 clean sheet.
  • Conceded in their last 20 matches.
  • No win in 16 matches.
  • 17 of 26 goals conceded came 2nd half.

Villareal 100% stats

  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten v 14th and lower (Osasuna are 20th).
  • Not conceded in both halves.
  • Not conceded a first half goal away.

Villareal other stats

  • Lost only 5 matches.
  • 1-0-1-0-0-0 conceded in recent away matches.
  • Unbeaten in 5 away.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Osasuna could be conceding 3 goals again today and if so, Villareal must be backed if conceding first.
  • If 0-0 of 1-0 at halftime, consider a 1-3, 2-3 or any other away scoreline. A bit of a stretch as Villareal have a couple of 0-0's away v bottom 5. This is more to do with Osasuna and the number 3!!
  • Osasuna should not be winning at halftime so lay them in the halftime market if they score first and early first half.

18:30 - Barcelona v Sporting Gijon - 1.08 Barcelona

  • 11 goals scored by Barcelona in the last 2 head to heads, hence today's odds.
  • No full research here. Barca beat Sporting 5-0 earlier this season at Sporting so let this be a gauge for today's match.
  • Sporting have had a lot of 2-1 defeats v top 10 away so let's hope they score and score first.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • If 0-0 after 25 minutes or so I would back any other home win if the odds have risen enough.

19:45 - Hearts v Ross Co - 1.73 Hearts

  • 3 consecutive draws in Scottish Premier League matches.

Hearts 100% stats

  • Only lost to the top 2 at home.

Hearts other stats

  • Only 1 0-0 at home came v Ross County.
  • Only lost once at halftime at home.
  • No home wins by a single goal.

Ross County 100% stats

  • Not won to nil away.
  • No away match with 3 goals exactly.

Ross County other stats

  • 6 defeats in their last 8 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 12 of their last 15 matches.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • Conceded 8 goals away in the 61st-75th minutes of matches.

Conclusions

  • Take a chance and lay any late draw in the hope the draw sequence in head to heads ends.
  • Both teams could score today and if Ross score first, I would be more confident in laying them.

19:45 - Inverness CT v Celtic - 1.3 Celtic

  • Celtic tend to score 2 goals at least when meeting Inverness.

Inverness 100% stats

  • Not won to nil at home.

Inverness other stats

  • Only 4 wins.
  • Beat Rangers 2-1 last match.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.

Celtic 100% stats

  • Unbeaten.
  • Scored in every match.

Celtic other stats

  • 21 consecutive wins.
  • All wins bar a 2-2 away.
  • Have actually been losing at halftime away in 2 matches.

Conclusions

  • Inverness beating Rangers last match is interesting but only 4 wins all season!
  • Celtic tend to score 2 goals at least v Caley. Expect same today? Expect them to score at least if 0-0 for a while.

19:45 - Rangers v St Johnstone - 1.67 Rangers

  • 2 consecutive 1-1 draws in the Scottish Premier League head to heads.

Rangers 100% stats

  • No over 3.5 goals match at home.
  • Not lost to nil at home.

Rangers other stats

  • Only 1 win in 7 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored in their last 11 matches and last 9 at home.
  • Only 1 home loss was v Celtic.

St Johnstone 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

St Johnstone other stats

  • 2 consecutive away matches.
  • No draw in 7 matches.
  • Not beaten any top 3 team.

Conclusions

  • Rangers should not lose today. Keep the faith on them scoring if the match is 0-0 or 0-1.
  • Lay St Johnstone if St Johnstone score first. They are yet to beat top 3.

19:45 - Man City v Huddersfield - 1.15 Man City

  • This is an FA Cup match so I will just take a quick look at the FA Cup form.
  • The odds should give you an expectation for Man City goals (3/4).
  • 5 clean sheets in their last 6 matches for Man city includes that 0-0 at Hudderfield.
  • City have lost 2 of their last 3 home FA Cup matches v Wigan and Middlesbrough but do note new management now!
  • Huddersfield are solid in the Championship and if I was the manager, I would leave the FA Cup and concentrate on possible Premiership riches. They are 5 points shy of automatic promotion.
  • Their FA Cup run is also punctuated by clean sheets.
  • Straight off the bat, 1.15 odds does look too short for Manchester City. This is, though, a match where I will trade via the in-play stats.

19:45 - Bayern Munich v Schalke - 1.26 Bayern

  • This is the German Cup. It was 1-1 the last time these 2 met.

Bayern Munich overall form

  • 13 wins and 2 draws in their last 15 matches.
  • 14 wins and 3 draws in their last 17 home matches.

Bayern Munich cup form

  • Last lost a cup match in May 2012.
  • Last lost a home cup match in October 2011.
  • Not conceded 2 goals in a cup match at home in their last 9 matches.

Schalke overall form

  • Unbeaten in 7 matches albeit 4 1-1 scorelines and 3 consecutive 1-1 scorelines.
  • 5 1-1 matches in their last 6 matches away.

Schalke cup form

  • No draw in 17 matches.
  • Last 3 matches saw wins and both teams scoring v Villingen, Nurnberg, and Sandhausen.
  • No draw in 23 matches away.
  • 18 wins in their last 20 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Interesting Schalke form. I would lay any late draw here in the hope Schalke continue avoiding the draw in the cup.
  • Lay Schalke (or even back Bayern) if Schalke score first. Bayern do not tend to concede 2 goals in the cup.

19:45 - Dundee v Partick - 2.66 Partick

  • 2 consecutive 2-0 wins for Partick in head to heads in the Scottish Premier League (SPL).
  • This is 6th v 7th.

Dundee other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • In 10 of the last 12 matches, at least one team scored at least 2 goals.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Scored and conceded in their last 4 matches.
  • Lost v top 3 at home .....and Partick!

Partick 100% stats

  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

Partick other stats

  • Failed to score in 4 consecutive matches which ended with 2 consecutive 2-0 home wins.
  • 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 9 of 12 goals scored away came 2nd half.
  • Only 3 away wins but have beaten Dundee 0-2 away.

Conclusions

  • I only researched this match as it was the last remaining SPL match. It is a toughie.
  • Lay any late 0-0. Dundee matches tend to see one team scoring 2 goals at least so look for that. 2-1/1-2 possible correct scores from a trading perspective?
  • No defeat in 7 at home plays 5 clean sheets in 7 matches. An equally solid argument can be made for either side so I will stick with the neutral angles above.

20:30 - Celta Vigo v Espanyol - 1.99 Celta

  • Celta Vigo remain unbeaten in the last 4 Spanish La Liga head to heads.

Celta Vigo 100% stats

  • No home draw.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No home match with exactly 2 goals.

Celta Vigo other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • 3 consecutive home wins.
  • All defeats, bar 1, have come v top 8 sides. Espanyol are 9th.
  • 14 of 16 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Espanyol 100% stats

  • No away match with exactly 4 goals.

Espanyol other stats

  • All defeats, bar 1, have come v top 10 sides.
  • All wins, bar 1, have come v teams 11th and lower. Celta are 10th.

Conclusions

  • Lay any late draw and hope Celta keep avoiding draws.
  • All Celta defeats, bar 1, came v top 8 sides. Espanyol are 9th. All Espanyol defeats, bar 1, came v top 10 sides, Celta are 10th. Does this tell us to suggest expecting Celta Vigo not to lose?

20:30 - Real Madrid v Las Palmas - 1.16 Real

  • 3-1, 1-2 and 2-2 in the last 3 head to heads. Real did not lose but the matches have been competitive in Spanish La Liga.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Hopefully as reliable today as they were away to Villareal!
  • Scored in every match.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Scored 2 goals or more at home v all teams 8th and lower.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Only 2 defeats.
  • 8 consecutive home wins.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • Lost all away matches v the top 6.
  • No away clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 away.

Las Palmas other stats

  • 4 consecutive defeats, 3 were 1-0.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.
  • No win in 10 away matches, conceding in their last 11 matches.

Conclusions

  • 1.16 odds suggests 3/4 goals at least from Real Madrid. The form points to them scoring 2 goals at least today.
  • Real Madrid were superb against Villareal. All I can hope for is for Las Palmas to lead 0-2!
  • Keep the faith in Real Madrid. They tend to find a goal! So any 0-0 or 0-1 - keep the faith!

20:30 - Granada v Alaves - 2.78 Granada

  • 3-1 Alaves in the earlier Spanish La Liga head to head.
  • I don't like, as you know, matches where the favourite is at such high odds. It betrays a tight game. What will the research say?

Granada 100% stats

  • 2nd bottom of the league so struggling.
  • All wins came at home (albeit only 3).

Granada other stats

  • 2 consecutive home wins.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime in their last 13 matches.
  • Have lost all matches v 8th-11th either 2-1 or 3-1 (Alaves are 11th).

Alaves 100% stats

  • All wins away v bottom 4 teams.

Alaves other stats

  • 3 wins in their last 4 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats in 12 matches, 1 was v Barcelona.
  • 7 goals conceded away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Purely on probability, Granada are more likely to lose or draw today. Alaves have beaten all bottom 4 teams away and I would keep the faith in Alaves today given their solid look in their last 12 matches.
  • Lay Granada if Granada score first. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.