I woke up at 6:30am my time to find that I had missed all of the action. The major winner, and I hope you noticed, was the rock solid Inter Milan equalising after conceding first away at Bologna. I really wish I could live chat today too. Lots of short priced favourites in the League Cup and in the European League matches. I will repeat what I said last night. If I can wake up at 4:45am my time, I will trade and tweet. It is such a good coupon for mid week.
19:45 - Arsenal v Doncaster - 1.12 Arsenal
- Doncaster have not met an established Premiership side in recent League Cup outings.
- Arsenal have not had a draw in 7 League cup matches.
- 3 losses in 4 for Arsenal at home.3 wins in 4 away for Doncaster.
- Even an Arsenal 2nd string side should be too strong for the League One outtift.
- Arsenal, I think, are a team who like to exit the League Cup early. You conspiracy theorists out there have a short odds lay at 1.13 if you think Wenger wants rid of this competition earlier than usual.
19:45 - Chelsea v Nottm Forest - 1.15 Chelsea
- An untidy recent record in the league cup for Chelsea. A draw (lost on pens), 3-2 win v Bristol Rovers, win in extra time over Leicester and 2-1 loss to West Ham.
- It is safe to say that Chelsea will not be teary eyed if they exit this competition.
- Forest's only loss in 5 matches was v Arsenal in this competition so they may simply be out-classed this evening.
20:00 - Man Utd v Burton - 1.12 Man Utd
- There really is little need to research this. Even a second string United side should win easily.
- Angles in? If no goal after 20+ minutes, consider laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market. Delay as long as poss.
- Remember Man Utd in the league are a late scoring side so note that if 1-0 late on, you might want to load up on any other home score if they do as they did v Everton.
- If 0-0 at halftime, expect a win to nil United 2nd half so a correct score play, something like 2-0 or any other home score might provide some trading angles.
19:45 - Everton v Sunderland - 1.31 Everton
- Why did we sell Lukaku? Everton are on a 4 match losing run in all competitions and have failed to score in those 4 defeats.
- 2 defeats in 3 League cup matches came v Man City and Norwich City.
- Everton lost to Norwich in their last home League cup match but they tend not to lose at home.
- 3 defeats and a draw for Sunderland in all competitions so we have 2 out of form sides.
- 4 wins in 5 in the League Cup for Sunderland. They do, though, tend to lose to Premiership opposition in the league cup.
- I have seen better 1.31 shots, I will be honest. This reminds me of Frank De Boers League Cup match when he was manager of Palace. You get the feeling that Everton need a win and Everton need goals in front of worrying home supporters. And they will take the first opportunity which presents itself. Do you have confidence that Everton can get the goals and win they crave?
20:00 - West Brom v Man City - 1.38 Man City
- As George Bush would say, the market has mis-under-estimated Manchester City in their last 2 matches. They were bigger odds today and scored 10 goals to no reply in their 2 matches.
- It is 15 goals in 3 matches for moneybags City.
- 1-1-0 goals scored by West Brom in their last 3 matches. Typical unremarkable.
- Only 2 wins in 8 League cup matches in 90 minutes for West Brom against Hull and Accrington Stanley.
- 3 penalties matches in their last 4 at home. It seems a draw is best case scenario for West Brom this evening.
- Since 2015 Man City has only lost to Everton and Man Utd. Both teams have scored in 7 of Citys last 8 League Cup matches.
- Both teams have scored 4 of Citys 5 away League cup matches.
- In their current form, this City side should win. At the very least they should draw against West brom. Enter the match opposing West Brom even if West Brom lead.
- If you want an ultra speculative punt, back any other away score if 0-0 after half an hour.
SPANISH PRIMERA LIGA
21:00 - Real Madrid v Betis - 1.12 Real Madrid
- Both teams have scored in the last 3 head to heads. Real Madrid have won the last 2.
- 2 score draw sequence for Real ended with a very good win away at Real Sociedad.
- Both teams have scored though in Real's last 3 matches.
- Both teams have scored in Betis's last 3 matches.
- They lost 2-0 away to Barcelona and that should be a template for today's result.
- Note both teams before halftime have seen a total of at least 2 goals. Food for thought?
- Remember I think last season Real Madrid scored in every match. A great angle if they are in trouble.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market or even back over 1.5 goals first half.
21:00 - Sevilla v Las Palmas - 1.47 Sevilla
- 3 consecutive tight Sevilla wins in head to heads.
- A reasonably gentile entry into the league season for Sevilla who have been meeting either newly promoted sides or recent newcomers to the league.
- A draw and 3 wins results. 3 consecutive clean sheets now.
- 2 losses and 2 wins for Las Palmas. The wins came v Malaga waay and Bilbao at home.
- Sevilla look like they have made a good start and should continue to do so against another recent newcomer Las Palmas. It might be an unspectacular win as per the head to heads but a win all the same.
- No halftime stats to work with yet. Be with Sevilla regardless of what happens in play. A good match to lay the 0-0 if 0-0 at start of 2nd half. Sevilla have scored their last 5 goals in the 2nd half.
19:00 - Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid - 2.32 Atl Madrid
- A surprise to see Madrid at such relatively high odds.
- 3 Madrid wins and a 2-2 in the last 4 head to heads.
- 0-0 and 2-0 for Bilbao sees 2 clean sheets at home. They are yet to meet the Elite 3.
- 3 consecutive away fixtures for Madrid saw 2 draws and a win. They only beat Malaga 1-0 at home.
- 2 consecutive clean sheets for Madrid now.
- I am surprised to see Madrid at such odds. Maybe there is a back story or an injury to a key attacking player, or it is simply down to their away form v Bilbaos current home form.
- I would not expect Madrid to lose today. I do note a lack of recent goals. I would be with Madrid if Bilbao scored first. If 0-0 at halftime I cannot see another Madrid 0-0. They did have one v Valencia last match away but I think that was down to the Champions League.
19:00 - Leganes v Girona - 2.3 Leganes
- Have we learned anything from newcomers Girona?
- 3 1-0s for Leganes, 2 defeats and a 1-2 loss to Getafe (newly promoted like Girona).
- A single 1-0 win for Girona came at home.
- No angles for me to work with. Let us focus only on teams we can read this early in the season.
20:00 - Deportivo v Alaves - 1.97 Depor
- 0-0 and 0-1 Alaves in the last 2 head to heads in the league.
- 2 teams yet to keep a clean sheet this season and 2 teams yet to win.
- Alaves have failed to score this season.
- I would look to lay the late 0-0. Apart from that, these 2 are in poor form and are not worth worrying about this early in the season.
19:30 - Hamburg v Dortmund - 1.47 Dortmund
- 3-5-3 scored by Dortmund in the last 3 head to heads.
- Dortmund have yet to concede and faltered only once with a 0-0 - yet again that was a pre-Champions League match and these things do happen.
- 2 wins and 2 defeats Hamburg now.Defeats v Leipzig and Hannover were 2-0. The Leipzig defeat is probably a template for what Dortmund can do at their best.
- 2 consecutive 0-0's at halftime for Hamburg saw 2 2-0 defeats so if 0-0 at halftime, do not expect another Dortmund 0-0. I expect goals without Champions League distractions.
19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Leverkusen - 2.3 Leverkusen
- 5 wins in 6 for Leverkusen in head to heads usually sees both teams score and a natural over 2.5 goals match.
- A very tough start for Hertha Berlin this season with Dortmund, Werder and Hoffenheim, failing to win. 2 1-1 draws at the moment.
- Both teams scored in Leverkusens first 3 matches without a win. 2 3-1 losses away.
- I would look to lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market in expectation for goals and given the season to date.
- Both teams should score as per the head to heads. If you want to back 2-2 as a trading angle it could work out here and is tradable at 2-0 or 2-1 to either side.
- Strictly on head to head form, Leverkusen tend to win with both teams scoring.
17:30 - FC Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt - 2.76 Frankfurt
- It looks a tough Bundesliga card today. 2.76 odds today here, 2.72 for the match below and 2.66 odds for the Hoffenheim match. These odds tend to relay an inability to "get an angle" into the match or pick a strong favourite.
- The last 6 head to heads have been won by the home side.
19:30 - Freiburg v Hannover - 2.72 Hannover
- No head to heads since 2015. When these 2 did meet, both teams scored and we saw over 2.5 goals.
- 2 0-0s at home for Freiburg is a sequence which will end soon. So lay any late 0-0 today or lay the 0-0 at the start of the 2nd half.
- Hannover look strong with 3 wins to nil (2 1-0 wins) and a 1-1 draw.
- This could be a tight match and I would slightly favour Hannover today. As I say above, any 0-0 2nd half could be layed in the hope that Freiburgs home 0-0 sequence will end.
19:30 - Mainz v Hoffenheim - 2.66 Hoff
- 4-4 and 4-0 Hoffenheim in the last 2 head to heads. The 4-4 was an extremely profitable match to trade in.
- 3 losses for Mainz, 2 were 1-0 and all 3 saw Mainz lose without scoring.
- They beat Leverkusen 3-1 at home.
- Win, Draw, Win, Draw for Hoffenheim this season. I am not sure why Hoffenheim are not shorter.
- I would favour Hoffenheim in this match today. Even if Mainz seem to have an unassailable lead,lay them in this match.
- Hoffenheim have seen 3 consecutive matches with at least one goal before halftime. Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
ITALIAN SERIA A
17:00 - Benevento v Roma - 1.39 Roma
- Benevento have scored just the one goal and conceded 10 in 4 defeats.
- They failed to score in their last 3 matches.
- 3 wins for Roma and a loss to AC Milan.
- Their odds today are a tad high but that may factor in the away status.
- Benevento are showing that they are floundering in Seria A and one of the big guns really should score 2/3 goals bare minimum today in what should be a comfortable win.
- Benevento's 2 home defeats were only 0-1 though. Roma do look too good though and should improve upon the 0-1. These scorelines though are a reminder that if 0-0 at halftime we should see 2nd half goals.
19:45 - Juventus v Fiorentina - 1.38 Juventus
- 3 consecutive 2-1 scorelines, 2 in Juve's favour in head to heads.
- Fiorentina do tend to score in head to heads.
- 3 goals bare minimum per match for Juventus which, obviously, being sustained leaves opponents with a mountain to climb.
- 2 losses and 2 wins for Fiorentina.
- We tend, with both sides, not to see a 0-0 at halftime so laying the 0-0 in the halftime score market is an option.
- Do watch out for a Fiorentina goal and hope Fior score first so we have a ready angle for 3 goal Juventus.
- If Juve score first, 3-1, 3-2 and any other home score would be my correct score options to trade.
- If somehow this was 0-0 at halftime, 3-1, 3-2 and any other correct score would be backable options which I would call a 'stretch'.
19:45 - Genoa v Chievo - 2.24 Genoa
- 0-0 and 1-2 Chievo in the last 2 head to heads.
- No clean sheets for Chievo.
- Genoa have failed to score twice.
- This is not a match which is readable.
19:45 - Verona v Sampdoria - 2.26 Samp
- Verona are newly promoted.
- I would have thought Sampdorias odds should be shorter. 3 matches, 2 wins and a 2-2 and 2 goals scored in each match.
- Verona have failed to score in their last 3 matches. 3 losses and a 0-0 Verona.
- I think Sampdoria should not lose today. They have tended to concede without losing. Let that be a template.
- Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Sampdoria.
19:45 - Cagliari v Sassuolo - 2.26 Cagliari
- 2 losses and 2 wins for Cagliari. Losses came away to Juventus and AC Milan.
- A 0-0 and 3 defeats for Sassuolo.
- Again, we do not have to trade all matches. This is tough to call.
19:45 - Atalanta v Crotone - 1.36 Atalanta
- 1-3 and 1-0 Atalanta last year.
- 2 defeats for Atalanta v Roma and Napoli not wholly unexpected. Against perceived weaker opponents Sassuolo and Chievo it is 2-1 and 1-1.
- Crotone are yet to score in 3 defeats and a 0-0.
- Atalanta should see this match as 3 points.
- It would be a surprise were Crotone to score and even score 2 so react, particularly if they score 1st.
19:45 - AC Milan v Spal - 1.27 AC Milan
- Do we see any pattern with newly promoted Spal?
- 3 wins and a loss for AC Milan. 2 2-1 home wins for AC Milan. Both matches went 1-0, 1-1 and then 2-1 at home.
- Only 1 win for SPal was a 3-2 at home v Udinese.
- 2 consecutive 2-0 losses for SPAL and you fear that could be the scoreline today.
- We may see a goal before halftime, albeit only 4 matches played.
19:45 - Udinese v Torino - 2.62 Torino
19:45 - Lazio v Napoli - 2.08 Napoli
- 3 Napoli wins to nil and a 1-1 draw in the last 4 head to heads.
- Good form for both sides. A draw and 3 wins for Lazio and 4 wins for Lazio.
- Napoli have scored 3+ goals in all matches to date. Lazio have started scoring 2-4-3 goals.
- This is one of those clashes which is too tough to call. I would personally side with Napoli today not to lose. But these 2 teams are closely matched on season form. The reason I have sided with Napoli is because of their slightly more robust scoring and head to heads.