Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

I was actually happy with the research in the English Championship, albeit a lot of the favourites scored first to scupper my 'angles in'. We have more English Championship today, mixed in with the Champions League first legs. I will be doing a webinar tomorrow for the Europa League tied to in-play stats. More details on that tomorrow. There is no shortlist today, as is the norm for me in the Championship.

CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

19:45 - Sevilla v Man Utd - 2.58 Man Utd

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches for Sevilla sees a return of sorts to form. At the end of 2017, Sevilla went through a rough patch.
  • Sevilla are excellent at home. They have only 1 loss at home since 26th November 2016. Superb stuff. This is in all competitions.
  • Sevilla scored and conceded in 7 of their last 8 Champions League matches. 4 draws in 7 matches.
  • A 3-3 v Liverpool recently suggests they are defensively frail to a strong attacking side. Man Utd I would not describe as a strong attacking side. Lukaku v Mane/Salah/Firmino?
  • It was a relatively easy Group stage at home. They did play 2 Premier League sides, beating Leicester and drawing Liverpool 3-3.
  • Sevilla scored and conceded in 5 of the last 6 home matches.
  • 7 wins and 2 draws for Man Utd. They have 2 recent away defeats v Tottenham and Newcastle.
  • Recent away wins v Yeovil and Huddersfield will have Sevilla shaking in their boots.
  • 5 wins in 6 matches in the Champions League for United v Basel, CSKA Moscow, and Benfica.
  • Away wins v CSKA and Benfica and a loss v Basel which may have been a 'tolerable' loss given United's lead in the group stage.
  • This looks like a very tough match for Man Utd. United would take a 1-0 or a 1-1 this evening I am sure, knowing that Sevilla are excellent at home (tend to go unbeaten and that fits with a 1-1).
  • Sevilla, clearly, have a strong both teams to score pattern. Is this enough to lay any side leading 1-0 or 0-1? Man Utd would fancy their chances in the home leg so it is imperative they stay on Sevilla's coat tails.

19:45 - Shakhtar v Roma - 2.6 Shakhtar

  • Due deference to Shakhtar here, the market has not completed dismissed their chances against a Roma team from a far superior league than the Ukrainian Premier League.
  • Maybe the weather will be the leveller tonight?
  • It is post Winter Break for Shakhtar who have been playing in a number of friendlies recently.
  • Shakhtar did well to progress through their group with teams such as Man City and Napoli.
  • Shakhtar are on a 4 match home winning run, beating Young Boys, Napoli, Feyenoord and Manchester City. Good stuff.The last 3 wins were either 2-1 or 3-1 at home.
  • Roma did not have a win in 7 matches and then are on a 3 match winning streak now.
  • Since August 2017, Roma have only lost away to Atl Madrid and Juventus. It seems to take a strong one to beat them.
  • Roma have a traditionally poor record in the Champions League.Wins came v Qarabag twice and Chelsea. The Chelsea result was good.
  • The market is right here. Shakhtar have a superb home record and I think Roma will tolerate a 2-1 defeat today at worst. I would lay Roma if Roma scored first.

ENGLISH CHAMPIONSHIP

19:45 - Derby v Leeds - 1.91 Derby

  • 1-0 Leeds and 1-2 Derby in the last 2 head to heads.

Derby (4th)

  • Only 6 defeats all season.
  • 11 clean sheets in 15 matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • Only 3 home losses v 1st, 13th and 18th.

Leeds (12th)

  • No win in 8 matches.
  • 3 losses and a draw away.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime away (31% of matches).
  • 6 losses and a win away v top 13 sides.

Conclusions

  • On form, Leeds should not be winning today. They tend to lose v top 13 sides. Derby have had a recent strong defensive run and I would side with them not to lose today.

19:45 - Bristol City v Fulham - 2.68 Fulham

  • The market suggests this is too tough to call. But as one of only 4 Championship matches, I will research it.
  • 0-2 Fulham and 0-2 Bristol City in the last 2 head to heads.

Bristol City (6th)

  • Only 1 win in 8 matches.
  • 2 consecutive score draws.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 1-2 loss v 1st, 2-1, 1-1, 4-1 v other top 4 sides so good form.
  • 12 of 17 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Fulham (5th)

  • 8 wins and 2 draws in the last 10 matches.
  • 4 clean sheets in the last 6 matches.
  • Scored in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • Lost away v 1st and 3rd and beat 2nd away. Conceded 2 goals in all aways v top 3.
  • In fact, Fulham have conceded 2 goals at least v 5 of 6 teams in the top 10.
  • 10 goals scored away last 15 mins of matches.

Conclusions

  • A feeling both teams could score today. A top 6 clash is tough to solve.
  • I would speculatively back a 2-2 here pre match as a trading angle. Why? Bristol tend to score and concede, Fulham tend to concede 2 goals v top 10 and are in good form so could reply in kind.

19:45 - Ipswich v Cardiff - 2.22 Cardiff

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 Cardiff wins in head to heads.

Ipswich (13th)

  • Failed to score in 2 of their last 4 matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 6 was v Wolves.
  • 7 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 10 losses and a win v top 8 teams.
  • Failed to score that 2nd goal v top 8 teams.

Cardiff (2nd)

  • Unbeaten in 6 matches.
  • Only 1 win in 6 aways.
  • Only 1 0-0 away.
  • 8 0-0's at halftime away.
  • v 5th-20th away from home, only 3 wins in 12 matches.
  • 7 goals conceded away 61st-75th minute and 8 goals scored away last 15 mins.

Conclusions

  • Cardiff's season seems to rely on their home form - I think they are vulnerable away from home.
  • The problem is that Ipswich have 10 losses and a win v top 8 teams and that is consistent enough for me to lay Ipswich if Ipswich scores first (they tend to rarely get that important 2nd goal).
  • A large % of 0-0's at halftime.

19:45 - Wolves v Norwich - 1.61 Wolves

  • 3-1 Norwich and 0-2 Wolves in the last 2 head to heads.

Wolves (1st)

  • Only 4 defeats all season.
  • Failed to score in only 5 matches.
  • 10 wins in their last 12 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 5 2-0 leads at halftime at home and 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 2 home losses v 2nd and 17th.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.
  • Scored first in 13/16 at home.

Norwich City (14th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • 1-1-1-1-1-1 scored recently.
  • Unbeaten in 5 away matches.
  • Have lost 3-1 and 4-2 to 2nd and 3rd away.
  • Only scored 2 goals once away v top 17 sides and still lost.

Conclusions

  • Norwich do not tend to score that 2nd goal so lay them if they score first. Wolves have failed to score in only 5 matches all season.
  • Unlikely we will see a trade here given Wolves tend to score first at home and tend to concede 2nd half.

EUROPA LEAGUE SECOND LEG

17:00 - CSKA Moscow v Crvena Zvezda - 1.8 CSKA

  • 4 0-0's in 7 matches for CSKA Moscow includes the first leg of this Europa League match.
  • 2 consecutive 0-0's. As I have said in the past, 0-0 sequences tend to end quickly.
  • CSKA's last 3 home matches were friendlies and again saw 2 0-0's. Winter Break the cause for those friendlies.
  • 6 clean sheets in 8 matches at home for CSKA suggests they will be strong defensively.
  • CSKA Moscow it seems are a team demoted from the Champions League.
  • Only 3 losses for Crvena (a.k.a. red star) since August 2017 were 1-0 defeats.
  • 3 0-0's in 4 matches for Red star in the Europa League. 2 consecutive away 0-0's.
  • This match revolves around the 0-0. I would lay the late 0-0 and hope the sequence ends. The teams too will be keen to get a 90th minute outcome.
  • The market favours CSKA Moscow today. Do you?

SPANISH PRIMEIRA LIGA

17:45 - Leganes v Real Madrid - 1.39 Real Madrid

  • 1-2 Leganes in the Copa del Rey. We are unsure if Real Madrid were 'up for the cup' though.

Leganes (13th)

  • Failed to score in their last 3 matches.
  • No draw in 6 at home.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Failed to score in defeat at home v top 2.
  • 0-0 v Atl Madrid so could be defensively strong.
  • 8 of 10 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid (4th)

  • 4 wins and a 2-2 last 5 matches.
  • Conceded 1-1-2-2-3 recently and did not lose.
  • 7-4-2-5-5 goals scored last 5 matches.
  • 3-2-2-4-3 goals in total before halftime recently.
  • Only 2 0-0's at halftime away.
  • Unbeaten v 11th and lower.

Conclusions

  • Real Madrid are renewed after a really poor run. 23 goals in 5 matches for Real Madrid. We really should see Real Madrid overwhelm Leganes.
  • Leganes did keep Atl Madrid to 0-0 and on that basis it seems to be their best chance of a point. Real Madrid should score 2-5 goals today and even if conceding 2 or 3 I think Real will outscore their opponents.
  • I would not lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. 6 0-0's at halftime for Leganes but real matching seeing shed loads before halftime.

PORTUGEUSE PRIMEIRA LIGA REPLAY AT 1-0 AT HALFTIME TO ESTORIL

18:00 - Estoril v Porto - 1-0 Estoril

  • This match was suspended at halftime after I believe Estoril's stand had safety issues.
Here is the original research from the 15th January 2018.

21:00 - Estoril Praia v Porto - 1.24 Porto

  • 6 consecutive Porto wins in head to heads.
  • 4-0 Porto last match.

Estoril (18th)

  • Only 3 wins required 3 goals to be scored.
  • In 6 of their last 7 matches at home, Estoril conceded 2 goals at least.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v top 5 but not yet played top 4 at home.
  • All losses to nil at home v the top 8 they have played.

Porto (2nd)

  • Go top with a win.
  • Came from 0-1 down to win 4-2 last match.
  • Failed to score only twice and being unbeaten all season, those 2 matches were 0-0.
  • Unbeaten at halftime away.
  • Yet to concede 2 goals in a match away.
  • Scored first in 7/8 at home.

Conclusions

  • On form, Estoril are likely to concede 2 goals. So if they score first, I would look to back Porto.
  • If Estoril are to win it is likely to be 3-2 but they have to beat a Porto who have not conceded 2 goals in any away matches.
  • Porto on form should win today 3-4-5 goals scored v the bottom 3 so the potential is there for another 3+ goal haul from Porto.

Additional information

  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches since that match for Porto sees 4 wins and a 0-0.
  • Estoril were bottom of the league. Since the match, they have 1 loss, 3 consecutive wins, 2 at home v Tondela and Sporting Lisbon, an away win v Moreirense and a 0-2 loss v Belenenses.
  • We need to see if this will continue 2nd half. If so, then Porto are expected to equalise v Estoril albeit and Estoril with 3 wins in their last 4 matches (3 of only 5 wins all season).
  • Porto remain unbeaten and I think are stronger than Sporting Lisbon were in their defeat. You might want to back 2-0 in case but lay Estoril in the match odds market.