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Laying Murray at 1.08 seemed counter-intuitive yesterday but I encourage laying tennis players at sub 1.1 odds pre-match. I call it a YAZZ ' the only way is up' for the Odds. Murray was his 'don't want to be here' self yesterday. A great result. I am out for lunch today, literally not figuratively, meeting an ex tennis odds compiler for lunch. He lives on Guernsey so I want to chat about the factors he uses to determine the odds and indeed where he finds his stats! I have a mobile with me and will try and trade the morning tennis as there are some good matches. I hope to see you @drtclub.

16:00 - Russia v Portugal - 1.98 Portugal

  • 0-0 and 3 1-0's (Russia, Portugal, Russia) in head to heads.
  • Russia has been playing mostly friendlies. 1-1 v Chile suggests they can nullify a world class attack.Their win over New Zealand was obvious.
  • Portugal has scored 2 goals at least in each of their last 8 matches.
  • 2-2 v Mexico recently.
  • Head to head suggest a tight one today.
  • I have no strong angle I'm afraid. If we expect Portugal to continue their 2 goal spree then Russia are layable if scoring first (as long as this match does not revert to head to head 1-0's).

19:00 - Mexico v New Zealand - 1.15 Mexico

  • 3 matches without a goal goal NZ, 2-0 loss to Russia. The market expects 3/4 goals today from the Mexicans.
  • 2 consecutive score draws Mexico and they scored 2 v Portugal but nearly lost the match.
  • we enter the match in the hope Mexico score 3/4 goals. Create value by hoping it is 0-0 for a while, then backing over 3.5 goals at enhanced odds, or 3-0, 3-1, any other home score.

TENNIS

AEGON

Jeremy Chardy v Feliciano Lopez - 1.46 Lopez

  • Quick research here. I hold Lopez in high standing on grass, as advertised by his 2-0 win over Wawrinka yesterday.
  • I am with Lopez here and will lay Chardy if Chardy wins the first set and back Lopez if we get near evens with his odds.

Jordan Thompson v Sam Querrey - 1.39 Querrey

  • 77th v 27th.
  • Thompson beat a Murray clearly not in form yesterday. It was painful watching him.
  • Querrey reached the quarter finals at Wimbledon last year. I do think Thompson's luck is all finished with the Murray match. Querrey will no way play as poorly as Murray and I expect Thompson to be beaten today.
  • Let's hope he offers some early resistance so that I can back Sam at higher odds.

Marin Cilic v Stefan Kozlov - 1.12 Marin

  • 8th v 147th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Interesting to see he beat Steve Johnson, albeit last 2 sets were 6-1 6-1 which suggests to me SJ had a niggle.
  • With that thought, and it is just a thought, Cilic should be winning 2-0.
  • Kozlov is predominantly a Challenger player.

Grigor Dimitrov v Julien Benneteau - 1.28 Dimi

  • 12th v 106th.
  • Last head to head 2014 - JB has won the last 2.
  • JB has gone through qualifiers to be here and beat Ward first round - he was priced to do so.
  • He reached the quarters in s-Hertogenbosch.
  • First, First , 3rd round Wimbledon last year for Dimitrov.
  • Benneteau took a set of Nishikori in Wimbledon last year but went on to lose.
  • Not a match I have a strong angle into. Dimii's form is not breathtaking.

Tomas Berdych v Denis Shapolov - 1.22 Tomas

  • 13th v 178th.
  • Shapolov is a new kid on the block. We got a profitable trade as he won the first set v Kyle Edmund but Kyle won the 2nd set. Denis won the match. Watching him, he is a talent but plays one of the Old Skool today.
  • New career for Denis whose only grass court experience is Wimbledon Junior.
  • Tomas was a semi-finalist at Wimbledon last year.
  • A poor French Open for Tomas. This is his first visit to Queens and in Stuttgart on grass he lost to Feliciano Lopez , who you know is a solid grass court player, nailing Stan yesterday.
  • This could be a tennis lesson for Denis who is tentatively stepping out in the ATP tour. Negatives for Tomas? His opponent is an unknown.
  • I would look to back Tomas if his odds rise. Denis was impressive v Kyle but Tomas is 13th and hugely experienced.

Muller v Tsonga - 1.5 Tsonga

  • 28th v 11th.
  • Recent head to heads, Tsonga, Muller, Tsonga. Tsonga won a 5 setter on grass in 2015.
  • Muller won at s-Hertogenbosch beating the likes of Alex Zverev and Ivo Karlovic.
  • 4 tie breaker out of 6 sets in the last 3 matches for Muller so he has to take a chance with the coin toss that is a tie breaker.
  • On that basis, Muller may be vulnerable if winning the first set, more so on a tie breaker. Tsonga is 3-1 in recent head to heads so should be confident of getting a set.

GERRY WEBER

Kei Nishikori v Karen Khachanov -  1.36 Nishikori

  • 7th v 56th.
  • Nishikori won a 4 setter in the US Open in 2016 head to head.
  • Kei will take a lot from beating Verdasco who took a set off him as per head to heads and my research.
  • He had a reasonably good clay court season  - quarters in Roland Garros.
  • 2nd round Halle and 4th round Wimbledon for Nishikori last year.
  • Karen will be familiar to DRT'ers from the French Open.
  • He left in his wake Tomas Berdych and John Isner. He was beaten by Murray in 3 sets.
  • Karen took 3 sets to beat Gilles Simon first round.
  • Nishikori has dropped a set in 7 of his last 8 matches. I hope for some fun from our Karen today. He/She may be able to boost Kei's odds to a more backable level - I would be happy backing him at 1.8 and higher.
  • In dropping at least a set, Nishikori has shown he wins sets too so I would be surprised with a Karen 2-0, albeit he beat Berdych 3-0 in the French Open.

Roger Federer v Mischa Zverev - 1.18 Roger

  • 4th v 35th.
  • 3-0 Roger in the last 3 head to heads, latterly in 2017.
  • Roger beat 91st in his first round. He took the clay court season off.
  • Zverev reached the semis on grass in Stuttgart.
  • Roger reached the semi's here last year, halted by Alex Zverev.
  • Mischa was involved in qualifiers on grass last year.
  • There is still a question mark about Roger being fully wound up here. Losing to Wawrinka, and Berdych suggests top 10 is a step too far.
  • Roger is tempting to lay at 1.18 but I would prefer to lay him if he wins the first set.

Phillip Kohlschreiber v Alex Zverev - 1.44 Zverev

  • 2 Germans meet in Germany. Due deference to Kohl.
  • 31st v 21st so quite closely ranked although long term you feel these 2 are heading in different directions.
  • Kohl has won the 2 2015 head to heads.
  • 4 3 setters and a retirement for Kohl recently and I cannot see him winning 2-0 although Zverev did lose 2-0 to 28th in an earlier grass tournament.
  • 28th, 36th and 26th have all beaten Zverev recently. Coincidence? He plays 31st today.
  • I must lay Kohl if Kohl wins the first set based on recent 3 setters.

Bautista Agut v Dustin Brown - 1.41 Agut

  • 18th v 75th.
  • Dustin is a German in Germany and we also note the natives as they can play above their ranking with home support.
  • Last head to head was 2014, an Agut 3 set win.
  • Agut recently has lost almost exclusively to top 20 players. Quarter Finals Aegon London and Third Round Wimbledon for Agut on grass last year.
  • 2nd round Halle and 2nd round Wimbledon for Dustin.
  • Dustin's recent form suggests he will not be winning 2-0 today so he must be opposed if winning, or HINTING at winning, the first set.3 set, retire, loss, 3 set, 3 set (2 tie breakers) recent form.

Robin Haase v Dominic Thiem - 1.2 Thiem

  • 46th v 9th.
  • Thiem won 2-0 in 2017 on clay this year v Haase.
  • 2 3 setters recently for Haase on grass includes a good win v David Ferrer.
  • Thiem had a superb clay court season.
  • Thiem was a Finalist in Stuttgart, semi-finalist in Halle and 2nd round Wimbledon last year. His warm ups were impressive.
  • Haase should not win 2-0. A ready angle if he dominates the first set. I am with Thiem here and hope there is an occasion where his odds become backable.

WTA Birmingham

Camila Giorgi v Elina Svitolina - 1.46 Svitolina

  • 90th v 13th.
  • 2014 Svitolina win in head to head.
  • 6 grass court matches played by Giorgi last 2 tournaments, 4 tie breakers played and the only reasonably comfortable match was a 2 set win v 221st.
  • Giorgi came through a qualifier to get here.
  • 3 consecutive 1st rounds on grass last year for Camila.
  • Svitolina had a superb clay season, winning in Rome and quarters in French Open.
  • She beat Heather Watson in her opener here. Good display v a local hero.
  • Elina has been seeded last 2 Wimbledons and lost in the 2nd round.
  • Giorgi should be stretched today. Questionable form on grass from Elina but if she brings a small amount of her Clay court form, she should be the winner.
  • Note the Giorgi tie breakers. She won the last 2 v 154th and 77th and really should struggle if 13th is in any reasonable form.

Coco Vanderweghe v Johanna Konta - 1.58 Konta

  • 23rd v 7th.
  • These 2 last met 2012.
  • Coco met 44th in the first round here.
  • She has lost to 69th and 384th recently.
  • Final, Semi final, 4th round Wimbledon for Coco last year on grass. Not bad.
  • Konta reached the final in Nottingham but as she has done in 2 big matches recently, she won the first set with ease then lost the match.
  • Recent collateral form. Konta beat Rybarikova who beat Coco recently Semis at Eastbourne, 2nd round Wimbledon.
  • Konta's odds have rarely deviated from 1.5-1.6 recently and she has generally delivered.
  • I cannot see Konta tolerating a 2-0 defeat so will lay Coco if Coco wins the first set. I like Konta's recent final at Nottingham too.

Naomi Broady v Petra Kvitova - 1.22 Petra

  • 121st v 15th.
  • Broady is a Brit in England. Broady generally plays 60K and 100K events.
  • She did beat Alize Cornet which catches the eye.
  • Quarters, Final, Final for Kvitova in the hard season.
  • 2nd, 3rd, 2nd rounds last year on grass for Petra.42-13 win record is good. 2014 Wimbledon finalist and winner so has the game for grass.
  • Only home support can get Broady over the line. The win v Cornet is intriguing but this Petra likes quarter finals and Final appearances on a regular and recent basis! I am with Petra and could love a Broady fight to be able to back Petra at higher odds. 1.5 good for me.

Lucie Safarova v Naomi Osaka - 1.65 Lucie

  • 28th v 46th. Rankings are tight enough outside of the top 20.
  • No head to heads.
  • Safarova must be happy with a 3 set win v Cibulkova who can be a tough nut to crack.
  • Lucie reached the semi final in Nottingham as well. Do note that all 5 of her grass court matches so far have been 3 setters.
  • Osaka didn't get going in Nottingham, losing 6-1 6-1 to 155th.
  • She won in 3 sets in her first match at Birmingham.
  • I won't look at past form here. I see the 3-setter patterns and would be keener for Osaka to win the first set as I would be more confident in Lucie equalising.

MALLORCA

Francesca Schiavone v Kristyna Pliskova - 1.53 Pliskova

  • 102nd v 57th.
  • 2-0 Schiavone in head to heads from 2012 and 2015.
  • Great display for Schiavone v Bouchard. My thoughts with Francesca? She will be a thorn to any player who is below par. Bouchard is such a case.
  • First, first, 2nd rounds last year on grass for Francesca. She was unlucky to have met Halep early at Wimbledon.
  • Last year Pliskova was qualifying for Aegon and went out first round at Wimbledon.
  • 3 consecutive 3 setters for Pliskova saw 2 defeats and a win first round here.
  • Francesca is limited these days. I had more confidence in her performing yesterday. There is though nothing in Pliskova's form to expect absolute domination from Kristyna.
  • I would be keener to lay Pliskova at shorter odds today, i.e. after a break or a set win. Just to keep liability down in case Schiavone is in 'terrier' state.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov v Julia Goerges - 1.61 Pav

  • 16th v 45th.
  • Most recent head to heads are 1-1. Goerges won in Auckland in 2 sets.
  • 3 setter for Pav v 82nd ranked player in her first Mallorca match.
  • Pav was a quarter finalist at Wimbledon last year so has something on grass.
  • Julia tends to be a serial first rounder on Grass last year.
  • I don't have any very strong angles here. Remember not all matches will be ultra readable.