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3 leagues today in Italy, Scotland and Belgian deserve our primary focus. Cup matches follow.
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/3765259265787642113 is the link to tonight's webinar which will have a specific focus on Research. It's a 19:00 kick off. Click on this link above and see you there.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:30 - Lazio v Udinese - 1.54 Lazio

  • 3 consecutive Lazio clean sheets saw 2 consecutive wins in head to heads.
  • Please remember Udinese are under a new manager (remember Swansea and their apparent improvement under new management?).

Lazio (3rd)

  • Only 3 defeats.
  • Superb last home match 5-1 win v Chievo at 1.28 odds.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored 4 -0-5-5 goals in their last 4 matches.
  • 4-5 goals scored at home last 2 matches.
  • Only 3 over 2.5 goals matches all season.
  • Unbeaten at halftime at home.
  • Scored and conceded in all bar 1 match home and away v teams 15th and higher. That I suppose is why they need to score several goals to ensure a win.
  • 9 of 11 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Udinese (9th)

  • 8 games under the new manager, and doesn't it show!
  • 5 wins and 2 consecutive 1-1 draws last 7 matches.
  • 4 wins and a 1-1 in the last 5 away matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches - something a new manager I suspect will seek to iron out.
  • Beat 4th place 1-3 under new manager.
  • No 0-0.
  • 10 of 13 goals conceded away came 1st half.

Conclusions

  • There is a sticking point here with Udinese joining a growing list of teams with new managers making a world of difference.
  • Udinese did beat top 4 away under their new manager.
  • I feel Udinese will concede as they have done recently under this new manager. Udinese have only scored a single goal in 2 consecutive matches and may struggle if Lazio go to town (again). 4-0-5-5 goals scored in their last 4 matches.
  • Over the season if Udinese concede it tends to be first half so lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Sampdoria v Roma - 1.99 Roma

  • 3-2 Roma and 3-2 Sampdoria in the last 2 head to heads.
  • Fun and games today?
  • Sampdoria have conceded first in 9/12 home matches against top-six teams while Roma have won the first half in 10/17 away matches.
  • Roma have won by two or more goals in 10/14 away matches.

Sampdoria (6th)

  • 2 consecutive home wins were the only 2 wins in 8 matches.
  • Only failed to score in 4 matches.
  • No draw in 10 home matches.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Playing 5th today, but v top 4, 3-2 loss away, 3-2 win at home, 1-2 loss at home and 3-2 loss away.
  • Only failed to score 2 goals on 2 occasions this season at home.
  • 17 of 25 goals scored at home came 2nd half.

Roma (5th)

  • Only 4 defeats but with no win in 4 matches, Roma have lost 2 recent matches.
  • 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 loss, 1-1 draw v top 4 away recently.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 this season.
  • Only away loss v 2nd in the league.
  • Only conceded 2 goals once away from home. Can they keep a lid on Sampdoria?
  • Scored first in 7/9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • I would back 3-2 and 2-3 here given head to heads and Sampdoria's form v top teams. Big odds, small stakes but the potential to trade if the expected goals arrive.
  • Roma though have been tight v top 4 and only conceded 2 goals once away.

ENGLISH LEAGUE CUP

20:00 - Arsenal v Chelsea - 2.56 Chelsea

  • 0-0 first leg of the League Cup. This is the second leg and I have absolutely no angle into this match.
  • I will not research as there will be team changes. The market itself reveals all with a 2.56 favourite.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

19:45 - Dundee v Hibernian - 1.96 Hibernian

  • 1-1 and 2-1 Hibs in the last 2 head to heads.

Dundee (10th)

  • Unbeaten at home v 3rd to 7th but losses v 1st, 2nd, 8th, 9th and 12th. Inconsistent stuff.
  • Only 3 losses in 9 matches were v top 4 teams.
  • Only 4 clean sheets.

Hibernian (4th)

  • Only 1 away loss.
  • Failed to score in only 1 away match.

Conclusions

  • I agree with the market. Dundee's home form is very inconsistent. Hibernian tend to score away and have that single away defeat. A simple angle therefore is to lay Dundee if Dundee scores first.

19:45 - Hamilton v Hearts - 2.26 Hearts

  • 1-2 Hearts and 1-1 in the last 2 head to heads.

Hamilton (9th)

  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 7 matches.
  • Only 1 0-0 came at home.
  • 11 goals conceded first half at home.
  • Wins at home v 10th and 12th.

Hearts (5th)

  • 3 consecutive 0-0's.
  • 7 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • No defeat in 9 matches.
  • Only 3 away wins were 0-1 v 6th, 1-2 v 9th and 1-2 v 12th.

Conclusions

  • It is extremely unlikely that we will see a long sequence of 0-0's. 3 is already a long sequence so I would take on any late 0-0 today.
  • Hamilton have conceded in their last 7 matches so that helps.

19:45 - Motherwell v Ross Co - 2.16 Motherwell

  • 2-0 Motherwell and 3-2 Ross in the last 2 head to heads.

Motherwell (8th)

  • 8 losses, 2 draws and a win in their last 11 matches.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • Only 1 loss at home v teams 5th and lower.

Ross Co (12th)

  • Only 1 win in 12 matches.
  • Only 4 wins all season.
  • 5 losses and a draw last 6 away.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • No win in 7 away.

Conclusions

  • Not a match I would ordinarily focus on. I would lay any late 0-0.
  • Strictly on form, it seems Motherwell at home are stronger than Ross County away.
  • BUT Motherwell have only 1 win in 11 matches to Ross Country's single win in 12 matches.

19:45 - Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.96 Rangers

  • Rangers have won 6/8 home matches against top half non-Big One teams and they have scored first in 7/8 such matches.
  • There have been +2.5 goals in 12/15 Aberdeen away matches against top half non-Big One teams.
  • Rangers won 3 of the 4 2017 head to heads.

Rangers (3rd)

  • Only 1 win in 4 matches.
  • 3 wins in 4 at home.
  • Only 1 home win v top 7 was.....against Aberdeen.

Aberdeen (2nd)

  • Only 1 loss in 6 matches was v Celtic.
  • 4 of 5 defeats this season came v top 3 teams.

Conclusions

  • I will stick with Rangers today and lay any Aberdeen lead despite the poor Rangers record v top 7 at home. The fact is they beat Aberdeen.

SPANISH COPA DEL REY

18:00 - Alaves v Valencia - 2.1 Valencia

  • 2-1 Valencia from the first leg of this Copa del rey match. All 3 goals were scored 2nd half.
  • Alaves scored first and Valencia won with 73rd and 82nd minute goals. The Valencia winner came after an Alaves red card.
  • I do not have any strong angles here alas. Valencia need only a 0-0 to go through. Alaves need a 1-0 to keep this competition alive for them.
  • Do note 2nd half goals in the first leg. Lay the 0-0 in the 2nd half if 0-0 at halftime?

20:30 - Real Madrid v Leganes - 1.22 Real Madrid

  • This is a second leg Copa del rey match. An 89th minute Real Madrid winner from the first leg.
  • I think Real will be insisting upon a win at home given recent poor form form, albeit they scored 7 goals last home match.
  • Remember that a 0-0 does for Real Madrid today. Leganes need a 0-1.

DUTCH EREDIVISIE

19:00 - Utrecht v Feyenoord - 2.24 Feyenoord

  • Feyenoord are unbeaten in the last 6 matches.
  • Feyenoord have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 head to heads.

Utrecht (6th)

  • Only 1 loss in 9 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 11 of the last 13 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 3 score draws in 4 home matches.
  • Unbeaten at home.
  • Only home loss v 1st.

Feyenoord (5th)

  • Only 4 losses.
  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches.
  • 3 of 4 defeats this season came v the top 2.
  • 13 of 21 goals scored away came 1st half.
  • Scored in 7 of their last 9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Utrecht are in good recent form and unbeaten at home. So a tick there.
  • Feyenoord tend only to lose v the top 2 so does that trump Utrecht's home form?
  • It is tough to call. Given Utrecht's recent score draws, the inference is that they are liable to concede so lay them if they score first. Both teams remember have scored in 11/13 matches for Utrecht.

BELGIAN PRO LEAGUE

19:30 - Anderlecht v Waasland-Beveren - 1.45 Anderlecht

  • Anderlecht won the 2 2017 head to heads.

Anderlecht (3rd)

  • 3 consecutive 1-0 wins.
  • 6 0-0's at halftime at home.
  • 11 wins and a 1-0 loss home and away v 8th and lower.
  • 9 goals scored at home last 15 mins of matches.

Beveren (9th)

  • Only 2 wins in 8 matches came at home.
  • 4 defeats in 5 aways.
  • Only 3 clean sheets.
  • Conceded in their last 8 and last 9 away.
  • No 0-0.
  • 5 defeats and a 2-2 v teams above them in the league away from home.
  • 15 of 22 goals conceded away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Beveren tend to concede 2+ goals away and v teams above them in the league, Beveren tend to lose.
  • That is my foundation.
  • Note Anderlecht's 6 0-0's at halftime. I would expect 2nd half goals if that happens today.