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17:30 - Utrecht v Cambuur - 1.53 Utrecht

  • Dutch Eredivisie v Dutch Eerste Divisie in this cup match.

Utrecht overall stats

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches came last match v Ajax. Solid form.
  • Only 1 loss in 11 home matches was that 1-0 v Ajax.

Utrecht cup form

  • 6 wins and a loss in 7 cup matches.
  • Only 1 loss in 7 at home was v Ajax.

Cambuur overall stats

  • Only 2 losses in 12 matches.
  • Unbeaten in 6 away with 4 clean sheets in their last 5 away matches.

Cambuur cup form

  • 3 consecutive wins.
  • Draw and loss v PEC Zwolle and PSV.
  • Beat Ajax 2-1 in December 2016.
  • 7 wins in 9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • What is with Cambuur's win v Ajax in December in this cup? A weakened Ajax side or a Cambuur side keen on a cup run?
  • Utrecht are in excellent recent form. Enough to side with them today?
  • Cambuur do have good form but the market has sided overwhelmingly with Utrecht.

18:15 - Eibar v Atl Madrid - 1.91 Atl Madrid

  • 3-0 to Alt Madrid from the first leg of this Copa Del Rey match.
  • Atl Madrid merely need to avoid a 3-0 or 4-0 defeat this evening to progress.
  • Atl Madrid can tolerate a  2-0 defeat. This puts this match into the category of a must-not-lose-heavily rather than a must-win for Atl Madrid.
  • From that perspective, it is tough to call.Atl Madrid are obviously the best team of the two.
  • We saw in the last cup match Atl Madrid had with Las Palmas that they won the first match 0-2 and lost the 2nd match 2-3 and still progressed.

19:45 - Leeds v Nottm Forest - 1.81 Leeds

  • Leeds are top 4 in the EngIish Championship. Let's see if their stats promote their favouritism.

Leeds 100% stats

  • No 0-0.
  • No over 3.5 goaIs at home.

Leeds other stats

  • onIy 3 draws were 1-1.
  • FaiIed to score in onIy 6 matches.
  • 6 wins in their Iast 7 home matches. OnIy NewcastIe beat them.
  • 5 consecutive home cIean sheets.
  • 7 0-0's at haIftime at home.
  • Lost 3-1 to Forest earIier this season but at home v bottom haIf teams, Leeds remain unbeaten.
  • 8 goaIs scored in the Iast 15 mins of home matches.

Forest 100% stats

  • None.

Forest other stats

  • FaiIed to score more than 1 goaI in a game in each of their Iast 8 matches.
  • OnIy 1 0-0 away.
  • AII defeats away v top 7 conceding either 2 or 3 goaIs.

ConcIusions

  • Forest Iose to top 7 teams by 2 or 3 goaIs. Is there anything in their form to suggest anything eIse today? I am not so sure. Ieeds are in soIid form and have soIid recent defence. With Forest faiIng to score 2 goaIs recentIy, Forest must be opposed if Ieading.
  • The odds are tentative but it does Iook as if Ieeds can puII off a win today.
  • Note 50% 0-0's at haIftime for Leeds so do not be concerned with a 0-0 at haIftime. There shouId be goaIs. Leeds have faiIed to score in onIy 6 matches aII season.

19:45 - Juventus v AC Milan - 1.57 Juventus

  • 0-0, 1-0 Milan and 1-1 in the last 3 head to heads between these 2 teams.
  • This is the Coppa Italia.

Juventus overall form

  • Only 2 defeats in 16 matches, 12 of those matches were wins.
  • No home defeat since 21st October 2015 (could be even longer but my records only point to that date).

Juventus Cup form

  • Unbeaten in 8 matches but 2 of the last 3 went to extra time.
  • 3 consecutive home wins scoring 4-3-3. Juve up for the cup?

AC Milan overall form

  • Only 4 wins in their last 10 matches.
  • Only 2 defeats in 11 away matches.

Milan Cup form

  • Unbeaten in 8 cup matches. A 0-0 with Juve in 2016 went to extra time.
  • 2 consecutive away wins.

Conclusions

  • Juventus's home record is outstanding. That is the clincher for me. DO not expect Juventus to lose at home. A simple trading angle.

19:45 - Celtic v St Johnstone - 1.24 Celtic

  • 3-3-3-1-4 goals scored by Celtic in recent head to heads. All wins bar a defeat when Celtic only scored the one goal.
  • This is a Premiership match.

Celtic 100% stats

  • Scored in every match.
  • Unbeaten.
  • All home wins.
  • Not conceded in both halves at home.
  • No home match with total goals of exactly 4.
  • No opponent has led at halftime at Celtic.

Celtic other stats

  • 15 consecutive wins.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home, the other were wins.
  • 9 goals scored at home in the 15 minutes prior to halftime.

St Johnstone 100% stats

  • All away wins by 1 or 2 goals.
  • No over 4.5 goals matches away.

St Johnstone other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 10 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Only 1 match with 0-0 before halftime in their last 9 matches
  • Draws away v 2nd, 3rd and 4th.

Conclusions

  • St Johnstone could be competitive here without winning. Lay them if they score first.
  • They have been very good away from home but markedly, 3 draws v top 4 away suggests the win is a step too far.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market. In fact, Celtic really should be winning at halftime.
  • Look out for a competitive St Johnstone who may not be able to push for the win.

19:45 - AZ Alkmaar v Heerenveen - 2 AZ

  • This is a Dutch cup match between two Dutch Eredivisie teams.

AZ overall stats

  • Only 1 loss in 16 matches was v Feyenoord. Good form.
  • Scored and conceded in 10 of their last 13 matches.
  • Only 2 losses in 24 home matches were v Maccabi Tel Aviv and Feyenoord.

AZ cup form

  • 10 wins in their last 12 matches. Losses were v Twente and Feyenoord.
  • Only 1 loss in 17 home matches was a 0-1 v Ajax. 5 consecutive home wins.

Heerenveen overall stats

  • 4 wins in their last 6 matches. Recent 4-3 loss to PSV.
  • Only 2 wins in 6 away matches. 2 consecutive away defeats saw both teams scoring.

Heerenveen cup form

  • Only 2 losses in 13 matches in 90 minutes were both v Roda.
  • Only 2 draws since 2005.

Conclusions

  • What grabs my attention here is AZ's amaxing recent home form in the cup and overall. Is this enough to expect AZ not to lose?
  • Lay Heerenveen if Heerenveen score first - AZ have tended to score and concede a lot but do have a strong unbeaten streak.

20:00 - Liverpool v Southampton - 1.54 Liverpool

  • The English League Cup, a competition where, ordinarily, the Premier league teams pretend to show interest but are glad to be rid of the competition at the earliest possible point.
  • This is the second leg where Liverpool are facing a 1-0 deficit. As I have said, and indeed say below with the Celta match, the first leg is a would-like-to-win but-must-not-lose-heavily scenario.
  • It was interesting to see a strong Liverpool team in the first leg. We see upfront Lallana, Sturridge and Firmino.
  • The market expects Liverpool to retain aggregate parity.
  • Liverpool have not lost a home league cup match in 10 matches, 5 of those matches went to extra time and that will occur with a 1-0 Liverpool win today.
  • Amazingly Southampton have not had a league cup draw since September 2004.
  • 5 wins in their last 6 away in the league cup for Southampton and that includes a 0-2 win away v Arsenal but note that Arsenal really have no interest in this competition.
  • So, faith today in Liverpool scoring? Liverpool must score and score first this evening.
  • Lay any late draw given Southampton's amazing league cup stat.

20:15 - Celta Vigo v Real Madrid - 1.72 Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid did not have to win the first leg of this Copa Del Rey match. Rather, they had to avoid a heavy defeat. They achieved that with a 1-2 loss.
  • This becomes a must-win match today in the second leg for Real Madrid.
  • Expectation is for Real Madrid to win today. Real Madrid have only drawn and lost recently in the Copa Del rey (bar the Celta loss first leg) when the tie was already finalised thanks to a huge first leg win).