Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Some more cup matches but I have focused on the league matches. They look good this evening and I will do a live chat at 19:45.

ITALIAN SERIA A

17:30 - Atalanta v Verona - 1.38 Atalanta

  • Verona return to the top flight and play last year's top 4 team.

Atalanta

  • Roma, Napoli and Sampdoria the only victors. only 1 defeat in 7 now though.
  • A run of 7 matches with both teams scoring ended with a 1-0 last match.
  • 1-1-1-2-1 conceded at home - conceded 2 v Juventus but drew 2-2.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Comfortable home wins v 13th and 17th and play 18th today - did concede though.

Verona

  • Only 1 win v fellow newly promoted.
  • 0-0-2-2 scored away. Yes have scored 2 goals in each of their last 2 away matches without winning. 2-2 v Torino and 3-2 v Chievo. In both of those matches, one of Verona's goals was a penalty.
  • On 6 occasions this season, 2 + goals have been scored before halftime.
  • 6 goals conceded first half away.

Conclusions

  • Verona are set to struggle again and could concede 2 goals. If they actually score 2 goals for the 3rd consecutive away match, they still should not win so note that as an angle.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on Verona's concessions away. Atalanta have been conceding at home. Let's hope Verona score first for the trading angle.

19:45 - Bologna v Lazio - 1.73 Lazio

  • 2 score draws ended with a Lazio away win.

Bologna

  • Losses v Fiorentina, Napoli and Atalanta 1-0 latterly.
  • I mentioned in research for that match how defensive Bologna were and it showed.
  • 1-0-0-1-1 conceded recently by Bologna.
  • 1-0-1-2 scored at home. The 2 was scored v Spal so problems there.
  • 5 goals conceded last 1/2 hour of home matches.

Lazio

  • 7 wins in 9 matches. Only 1 loss v Napoli.
  • In all wins, Lazio scored at least 2 goals. In 5 of their last 7 matches they scored at least 3 goals.
  • Failed to score only on the opening day.
  • That was the last 0-0 at halftime too.
  • 1-2 wins away v 3rd and 7th and play 8th today.

Conclusions

  • Bologna's defence must be respected. They kept an Atalanta team to a single goal, ditto an improved Inter Milan.
  • This has another look of defence v attack today. Lazio are scoring 3 goals regularly. Will they get a look in today?
  • Based on lazio, lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market but as I say Bologna are a defensive side.
  • Bologna only scored 2 goals v Spal, newly promoted so I foresee difficulty against Lazio today. Favour Lazio.

19:45 - Cagliari v Benevento - 1.55 Cagliari

Cagliari

  • Only 2 wins, 1 v Spal, another newly promoted side like Benevento.
  • 3 consecutive home losses.
  • Failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • 2 consecutive 2-0 losses by halftime.
  • Wins v 17th at home and 19th away and play 20th today.

Benevento

  • All defeats.
  • Failed to score in 7 of 8 matches.

Conclusions

  • The odds are right here.
  • Cagliari are struggling but a win v Spal and Crotone suggests Benevento should be within their compass.
  • 2 poor struggling sides but one struggling a bit more than the other.

19:45 - Chievo v AC Milan - 2.24 AC Milan

  • 2 consecutive 3-1 wins for Milan in head to heads.

Chievo

  • 3 wins in 4 matches in a season of only 2 losses v Lazio and Juventus.
  • Both teams have scored in 4 home matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only losses v current top 4 and AC Milan are 11th.
  • Opponents tend to score first at Chievo but as you see both teams score.

AC Milan

  • 3 losses and a draw last 4 matches.
  • 3 consecutive away defeats.
  • Failed to score in 3 of 4 matches.
  • All defeats away v top 6 with Chievo in 7th.
  • All wins v 14th and lower so the wins are in context here early in the season.

Conclusions

  • Chievo look favoured today. AC Milan seem to be struggling. They are losing v top 6 sides with Chievo 7th.
  • AC Milan could score today given Chievo's both teams to score pattern so watch that. Chievo are capable of equalising if conceding first.

19:45 - Fiorentina v Torino - 1.95 Fiorentina

  • The home team has tended to win head to heads.

Fiorentina

  • Loss, Win, Draw, Win at home. Both teams scored.
  • Wins were 2-1.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • All defeats v the current top 7 with Torino 10th.
  • No 0-0.

Torino

  • Losses have come only v Roma and Juventus.
  • No win in 4, the other 2 matches were 2-2.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • 2-4-2 goals conceded away.
  • Those losses were v top 5 and play 9th today.

Conclusions

  • An interesting match. Head to heads suggest Fiorentina are the likeliest winners.
  • Both teams could score today. Torino have had 2 recent 2-2's. Fiorentina, if they win, win 2-1 at home, if they lose at home they lose 1-2.
  • 2 teams in reasonable form losing only to the current top 7 and both teams are outside the top 7.
  • I could see both teams to score but tough to pick a winner. Is this another 2-1/1-2 trade? Both teams to score, hope it is a 1-1 and trade out of 2-1 and 1-2.
  • Lay any late 0-0.

19:45 - Genoa v Napoli - 1.4 Napoli

  • Napoli tend to win head to heads, or at least draw 0-0.

Genoa

  • Only 1 win came away v Cagliari.
  • Unbeaten in 2 now. 0-0 last match.
  • 3 losses and a 1-1 at home.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • 4 and 3 goals conceded at home v 3rd and 4th, and play 2nd today (did score 2 goals in those matches).

Napoli

  • All wins ended with a 0-0 last match.
  • 3 consecutive clean sheets.
  • Scored in all bar 1 match.
  • 5 consecutive away wins.
  • 3+ goals scored in all bar 1 away match.
  • 10 of 14 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • Napoli should be winning today but watch out for a goal or 2 for Genoa who managed that at home v top 4. Napoli should still outscore genoa today.
  • Napoli score a huge number of goals 2nd half so fear not if they are 1-0, 2-0 or 1-1 at halftime. I am sure they will fight back.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market based on goals expected (despite Napoli scoring largely 2nd half).

19:45 - Juventus v Spal - 1.14 Juventus

Juventus

  • Only 1 loss v Lazio last home match. All other home wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • 3+ goals scored v 13th and lower.
  • No 0-0.
  • Scored first in all home matches.
  • Led at halftime in 4/5 at home.

SPAL

  • 6 defeats and a draw last 7.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came 1st match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime came 1st match.
  • 2-2-2 goals conceded last 3 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Expectation is for 2/3 goals minimum from Juventus today. No Champions League this week for Juventus so no excuses.
  • Juventus are likely to lead at halftime.
  • We should not see any problems so embrace any shock and be with Juventus throughout.

19:45 - Roma v Crotone - 1.19 Roma

  • Wins to nil tends to be the norm for Roma in head to heads.

Roma

  • No draw sees all wins bar 2 defeats v Napoli and Inter Milan (top 2 in the league).
  • Failed to score only once.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • 3+ goals scored in wins v bottom 1/3rd sides.

Crotone

  • Only 1 win came at home.
  • 5 goals conceded away v Atalanta and Sampdoria.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.
  • Not scored a first half goal away.

Conclusions

  • Roma are expected to score 3 goals.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.

19:45 - Sassuolo v Udinese - 2.06 Sassuolo

  • Sassuolo do not tend to lose head to heads. They won their last 2 head to heads.

Sassuolo

  • Only 2 wins were 0-1 away wins.
  • 2 consecutive clean sheets now, the last match was 0-0.
  • 0-1-0-0 goals conceded at home.
  • 3 0-0's at halftime at home.

Udinese

  • All defeats bar 2 wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • All over 2.5 goals bar 1.
  • 2 clean sheets saw 2 wins.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Conceded 2 goals at least in each of their last 4 away matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime.
  • Scored and conceded all away matches.
  • 4 of 5 goals scored away came 2nd half.

Conclusions

  • 2 teams in poor form and not to be trusted. I would look to follow this match via the inplay stats. Sassuolo have trouble scoring, Udinese are conceding and scoring away.

SCOTTISH PREMIER LEAGUE

I hope it is a bit more exciting than last night. We have Celtic and Rangers who are a little more trustworthy than the likes of Diddy David Hamilton and Partick Thistle

19:45 - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.59 Celtic

  • 7 Celtic wins in a row in head to heads.

Aberdeen

  • 2nd and 1st in the league.
  • Unbeaten this season.
  • All wins bar 2 draws v Hearts and Kilmarnock.
  • 3 wins in 4 matches at home.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Not conceded a first half goal at home.
  • Scored first in all home and led at halftime in all home matches.

Celtic

  • Unbeaten. All wins bar 2 score draws which came at home.
  • 4 away wins.
  • Scored in every match.
  • 5 clean sheets.
  • Not conceded a first half goal away.
  • Scored first in 4 away and led at halftime in 3 away.

Conclusions

  • Aberdeen's biggest challenge this season. Both sides have mirrored form, scoring first, leading at halftime, all wins bar 2 draws.
  • We have to side with Celtic of course. The head to heads say as much.
  • This is one of those matches which could see the teams cancelling each other out, as top 2 clashes tend to do so a concerted 0-0 would not surprise.
  • I would still have to side with Celtic.

19:45 - Dundee v Motherwell - 2.64 Motherwell

  • 1-5 Dundee and 2-3 Dundee in the last 2 head to heads.
  • A betting market which cannot split these 2 teams usually warns us to leave these matches alone.

Dundee

  • 2 wins this season came in their last 2 home matches.
  • No clean sheets.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Scored and conceded in 4 home matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime at home.
  • Scored first in 3/4 at home.
  • Motherwell are a top 4 team and Dundee are unbeaten at home v 5th, 6th and 7th.

Motherwell

  • Only 1 loss in 7 matches came v Aberdeen.
  • 5 wins in those 7 matches.
  • 2 goals scored in 6 of their last 8 matches.
  • Failed to score only once.
  • All wins v 7th and lower, Dundee are 10th.
  • No 0-0 at halftime away.

Conclusions

  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market.
  • Dundee are starting to win at home now but Motherwell look to have the more established form and I would side with them today. Scoring 2 goals at least.
  • Please remember the market cannot split these teams and that usually suggests it could go either way but I would have to be with Motherwell on current form.

19:45 - Rangers v Kilmarnock - 1.32 Rangers

  • 3-0 Rangers and 0-0 in the last 2 head to heads.

Rangers

  • 2 losses came v Celtic and Hibs.
  • Failed to score in only 2 matches.
  • Only 2 clean sheets.
  • Loss, Draw, Win, Loss at home.
  • 4 of 6 goals scored at home came 2nd half.
  • Kilmarnock are bottom of the league.

Kilmarnock

  • Only 1 win came last match.
  • Only 1 clean sheet came last match.
  • Only 1 0-0 at halftime.
  • No 0-0.
  • 1-1 away v Aberdeen in 2nd. Rangers are 3rd.

Conclusions

  • Rangers must be eyeing the win. Kilmarnock did draw 1-1 v Aberdeen so may put up a fight. Rangers have poor home form but are unbeaten home and away v 5th and lower.
  • Kilmarnock have kept only one clean sheet.