Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Potential giant killers today in Deportivo (recently beat Barcelona and drew with Atl Madrid) and Crystal Palace (Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool slayers!) One stat I will use today. Real Madrid tend to find a goal....eventually!

18:30 - Barcelona v Osasuna - 1.05 Barcelona

  • 0-3 the last time these 2 met. Nothing really to add. 1.05 equals goals. The ideal would be as per a recent match involving Tampines Rovers who were 1.08 shots pre match. It was 0-0 up until the 87th minute. Back them then!! They won 1-0!
  • Barcelona really should be scoring before halftime too. Rather simple puzzle to solve!
  • A concerted period of 0-0 would be very welcome!

19:30 - Valencia v Sociedad - 2.66 Valencia

  • 3-2 Sociedad in the last head to head saw a rather comfortable match for Sociedad despite the scoreline.
  • This is 12th v 7th in Spanish La Liga.
  • Top 3 spot is possible with Sociedad winning all remaining fixtures and all others in-between them and 3rd spot suddenly all losing!
  • Do note the odds suggest that the market cannot split these 2 teams. It also suggests to me that the form may be lacking in clarity.

Valencia other stats

  • Only 1 loss in 5 matches came away v Malaga.
  • 5 wins and 2 draws in their last 7 home matches.
  • No defeat in 7 at home.
  • Only 1 0-0 at home.
  • 2-2-0-0-2-0-2-3-2 goals scored at home v teams above them in the league. What will it be today? Well they scored 3-3-3 then 0-0 in their last 5 matches. Will the strikers be on form, or taking an extended tea break today?

Real Sociedad 100% stats

  • No draw away.
  • All defeats away bar 1 came v 11th and higher.
  • No 0-0.

Real Sociedad other stats

  • Only 2 wins in 7 matches came at home.
  • 3 consecutive away losses.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • 7 wins and a loss v Depor away v 13th and lower.

Conclusions

  • No wonder the market makers have bowed out here. Which Valencia will turn up today? The team scoring 2/3 recently or the team failing to score in 2 consecutive matches? The team scoring 2 goals at least in 6 matches v teams above them or the team failing to score in 3 matches v teams above them?
  • I would lay any late 0-0 here.
  • Sociedad have an excellent winning record  v teams 13th and lower.
  • If you wanted a trade (and that is a big IF!) then 2-2 might get a run if the 2 goal Valencia turn up and the Sociedad tending to win v 13th and lower turns up.

19:30 - Leganes v Las Palmas - 1.74 Leganes

  • 1-1 when these 2 teams met earlier in the season.
  • This is 17th v 13th in Spanish Primera Liga.
  • Las Palmas are safe. Leganes are 4 points above the relegation zone so this is a must-win for them and the market thinks they can do it.

Leganes 100% stats

  • Not beaten a top 15 side at home.

Leganes other stats

  • 4 consecutive losses.
  • Win, Win, Draw, Loss, Loss at home recently.
  • Failed to score in 7 of 12 home matches v top 15 teams.

Las Palmas 100% stats

  • Not beaten any of the 4 teams they have played away from home below them in the league.
  • No away clean sheets.

Las Palmas other stats

  • Only 5 clean sheets.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in 9 matches.
  • No win in 15 away.
  • Conceded in their last 16 away.
  • Scored and conceded last 6 away.
  • Conceded 2 or more goals away in their last 6 matches.

Conclusions

  • This presents a good opportunity for Leganes today with Las Palmas conceding in their last 16 away matches and having a really poor away record v the struggles. Leganes though need to find a goal, having failed to score in 7 of 12 home matches v top 15 sides. Another match which really makes little appeal for me. On a busy day, for instance, this match would not be shortlisted.

19:45 - Arsenal v Leicester - 1.63 Arsenal

  • 0-0 the last time these 2 met.
  • This is 7th v 15th in the Premiership. Yes, 7th! Arsenal will only go 6th with a win today.
  • Leicester have a 3 point cushion above the relegation zone and under the Great Bard look to have dodged a bullet.....for now.

Arsenal 100% stats

  • Unbeaten home and away v 13th and lower.
  • Scored in all home matches v top 18.

Arsenal other stats

  • Only 3 wins in 9 matches.
  • Failed to score in only 3 matches.
  • Over 2.5 goals in 11 of their last 12 matches.
  • 5 wins, a draw and a loss at home in the last 7 matches.
  • Scored 2+ goals in all bar 1 at home v 11th and lower.

Leicester stats

  • Stats only under the Great Bard.
  • Scored 2 + goals in every match.
  • 3-2-2 scored in their last 2 away matches but 4-2 conceded in their last 2 away matches.
  • 2-3, 4-2, 2-2 away.

Conclusions

  • The odds for Arsenal do look a little short to me with Leicester in their current goalscoring form. 2-2 worked as a trading angle last match and is reliant on the Great Bard getting Leicester scoring at least 2 goals as Arsenal should get on the scoresheet.
  • Over 2.5 goals for Arsenal in 11 of their last 12 matches is also a good argument for the 2-2 trading angle. I cannot see them winning 3-0!

19:45 - Middlesbrough v Sunderland - 2.28 Boro

  • 1-2 Boro in the previous head to head.
  • This is 19th v 20th in the Premiership.
  • 6 matches remain for Sunderland (18 points max) and for Boro.
  • Both sides require a 100% record in order to bring other teams into the relegation fight.
  • Very basic research sees Boro keep home clean sheets in 4 matches v 15th and lower.
  • Sunderland have only 2 away wins.
  • Add to the mix the 'derby' of sorts and this match can swiftly be avoided.

19:45 - Bayern Munich v Dortmund - 1.6 Bayern Munich

  • This is the DFB Pokal being held in Munich.
  • We have a home side with 8 wins and a 0-0 in their last 9 cup matches.
  • 7 clean sheets in their last 8 matches.
  • It has been 1-1 and 0-0 when these 2 have met at Bayern in the cup recently.
  • Dortmund went to penalties in their last 2 home cup matches in order to get here, against the likes of Union Berlin and Hertha.
  • 6 clean sheets in 7 away for Dortmund in the cup saw them scored 3 goals in 5 away matches and a 0-0 v Bayern in May 2016.
  • I cannot get an angle here I'm afraid and kindly remind you that just because we have high profile matches with big teams, it does not necessarily mean we need to trade if there is no angle.

20:00 - C Palace v Tottenham - 1.67 Tottenham

  • 1-0 Tottenham the last time these 2 met.
  • Beware this is a Palace side beating Arsenal, Chelsea, and Liverpool recently. Liverpool's odds were shorter than Tottenham's are today.
  • This is 12th v 2nd in the Premiership.
  • A must win for both sides. Tottenham must win in order to keep Chelsea honest. Palace should secure premiership survival with 3 points. They are on 38 points now.

Palace stats under Big Sam (and Little Sam)

  • Only 2 draws in Big Sam's tenure were score draws.
  • 6 wins, a loss and a draw last 8 matches.
  • 3 wins and a 2-2 v Leicester last 4 home matches. Note 2 of the wins were only 1-0.
  • Palace have now scored 2-1-3-2-2 goals in their last 5 matches.
  • No 0-0 at halftime in their last 5 matches.
  • All season long Palace have lost to the top 6 at home.

Tottenham stats

  • 7 consecutive wins scoring 2-4 goals.
  • 3 clean sheets in 4 matches. 2 consecutive 4-0 wins.
  • Only 1 loss this year was away to Liverpool.
  • Failed to score in only 4 matches.
  • Unbeaten outside of the top 6.

Conclusions

  • This is a London Derby and I would forget about Palace's losing record at home to top 6. Look at their recent record of wins v big names.
  • I would back 2-1/1-2 especially if 0-0 for a while. It could really have legs if Palace can continue to score goals. Palace have goals galore in them but will meet a more resilient Spurs side.
  • Tottenham for me though look classier than the likes of Liverpool but that said, they laboured in their win v Swansea away recently.
  • Lay the 0-0 in the halftime score market and hope the recent Palace trend continues.

20:05 - PSG v Monaco - 1.35 PSG

  • This is the Coupe de France. It is being held in Paris.
  • The odds are overwhelmingly in PSG's favour. I can only assume that Monaco have changed their priorities to focus on the Champions League and on the League.
  • PSG have won all coupe de France matches since 2016 (could be earlier but I stop at 2016).
  • 4 consecutive clean sheets for PSG in the Coupe.
  • Monaco, for me, do not seem to be really trying in this competition. Why do I say that? Well 2 of their matches have gone to extra time against the likes of Chambly and Marseille.
  • Their 2-1 win over Lille saw the game change care of a Lille red card.Monaco's 2nd goal was scored 5 minutes after the red card.
  • The market therefore seems to be accurate here. Monaco should be making team changes here. I would be very surprised if they fielded the big impact players.

20:30 - Deportivo v Real Madrid - 1.42 Real Madrid

  • 0-2 Real Madrid and 3-2 Real Madrid in the last 2 head to heads.
  • This is 16th v 2nd in the Spanish Primera Liga.
  • 5 matches remain this season. Depor are 8 points clear of relegation so a win today would see them 11 points clear with 12 points max remaining.
  • Advantage Real Madrid with a game in hand over Barcelona and on equal points.

Deportivo 100% stats

  • Scored and conceded in all 3 home matches v top 4.

Deportivo other stats

  • 1-1-1-1-0-0 conceded in recent home matches, including the likes of Atl Madrid and Barcelona.
  • Unbeaten at home v top 3.
  • Not conceded in the first 1/2 hour of home matches.
  • 13 of 15 goals conceded at home came 2nd half.

Real Madrid 100% stats

  • Scored in all matches.
  • All wins home and away v 14th and lower scoring 2+ goals in every match.
  • 100% over 1.5 goals.

Real Madrid other stats

  • Scored 2 goals at least in 9 of their last 10 matches.
  • Both teams have scored in the last 9 away matches.

Conclusions

  • Depor could make life tough for Real Madrid today so note that. Recent draw and win v 2 of the big 3 at home suggests so.
  • Still if Depor score first, we have to remember that Real Madrid have scored in every match this season and really should be scoring 2 goals at least.
  • A simple angle.