Profit from LIVE trading on Betfair

Eastbourne tennis was rain-affected yesterday so I repeat yesterday's Daily Bulletin for the men's and women's research below. Dominic Thiem was the only favourite not to oblige at Antalya in Turkey. It was strange in hindsight to see him as the only top 30 player there, when he could have made Wimbledon preparations at a warm-up Tournament in England itself. With my Miss Marple head on, I think this was a case of being paid an appearance fee in order to boost coverage for what I think was the first grass court event in Antalya.
I cleared the day yesterday in order to trade the tennis. I may not be so lucky today time-wise but will try and follow the tennis and trade @drtclub.

19:00 - Portugal v Chile - 2.5 Portugal

  • How do we gauge these 2 teams against each other?
  • Both sides are unbeaten so far in the Confederations Cup.
  • Portugal drew 2-2 with Mexico, 0-1 win v Portugal (as per head to heads), 0-4 v New Zealand.
  • Chile beat Cameroon 0-2, drew 1-1 with Germany and Australia.
  • When Chile meet a better quality team, 1-1 tends to crop up.
  • Is that a ready angle in a match in which the market cannot split the sides?

19:45 - Linfield v La Fiorita - 1.14 Linfield

  • This is a Champions League first leg match and I am going out on a limb here. I don't think any of these 2 will reach the Final.
  • Northern Ireland v San Marino.
  • The market is emphatic here. Expectation for 3/4 goals for Linfield.
  • Linfield were last in the Champions League in 2012.
  • La Fiorita were last in the Champions League 2014 and lost both legs v Estonians Levadia.

TENNIS

EASTBOURNE

Mischa Zverev v Ryan Harrison - 1.34 Mischa

  • Betfair has this down as Eastbourne. matchstat.com has it down as Nottingham.
  • 35th v 50th.
  • Zverev has won the last 2 head to heads on hard court in 3 sets and in 2 sets featuring a tie breaker. These are his shortest odds in head to heads with Ryan.
  • Mischa was strong in Stuttgart, reaching the semi finals and giving solid yardstick Feliciano Lopez a match - 3 sets, 2 tie breakers and a 7-5. That to me is good form.
  • He was unlucky enough to meet a renewed Federer in Halle where he took the first set to a tie breaker.
  • Harrison is on a 4 match losing streak.
  • I cannot see Mischa losing 2-0 today. I would be keen on Harrison taking the first set as I would back Mischa at bigger odds. His form v Lopez is good grass court form.

Thomas Fabbiano v Franko Skugor - 1.52 Thomas

  • 163rd v 321st and immediately I am put off by the rankings.
  • Fabbiano has won 3 of the last 4 head to heads, one of those wins was a retirement. All wins were straight sets.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals. Make your life easier and trade matches with players who have an air of reliability. 3 figure ranked players by default do not!

Mona Barthel v Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.58 Svet

  • 81st v 9th in the rankings.
  • The last head to head saw Barthel retire.
  • Barthel retired in Eastbourne last match. I cannot find a reason for the retirement.
  • First, First, First, Second Round last year on grass for Barthel. 12 wins and 17 losses.
  • 145th, 146th, 94th the players Barthel beat. This is a leap today to a top 10 player.
  • Svetlana has not played on grass yet this year.
  • 2nd round, 4th round Wimbledon last year for Svetlana on grass.
  • I cannot see anything in Mona's form to suggest a 2-0 win so must oppose Mona if she wins the first set. Potential injury niggle as well compounds this for me.

Ying-Ying Duan v Simona Halep - 1.21 Simona

  • 60th v 5th.
  • No head to heads.
  • First round loss Birmingham, and Duan went through qualifiers and beat McHale who retired first round here. Duan has yet to show anything to trouble Halep.
  • Halep is in rare old form. 3 consecutive Finals includes a Grand Slam Final.
  • Second round Wimbledon for Duan last year.
  • No warm up last year for Halep pre-Wimbledon. She is taking a different route this year. Simona reached the quarter finals last year at Wimbledon.
  • Halep should be winning here. Despite no head to heads, there is nothing in Duan's grass court form to suggest trouble for Halep.

Novak Djokovic v Vasek Pospisil - 1.2 Novak

  • 2nd v 112th and the fact Novak is 1.2 says a lot.
  • This is the Novak Shadow playing currently. His enthusiasm for winning has been removed and replaced with Donkey's Cheese.
  • 4-0 Novak in head to heads, all straight sets wins.
  • Quarter Final, Semi Final, Final, Quarter Final for Novak recently is a mini-crisis. Goffin, Nadal, Zverev and Thiem the recent victors.
  • 624th and 58th the recent players Vasek has beaten on grass.
  • Novak should be winning in straight sets - 73rd ranked Istomin is the highest ranked player that beat Novak recently.

Cameron Norrie v Gael Monfils - 1.12 Gael

  • 238th v 17th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Norrie is a Challenger player who beat 84th at Nottingham.
  • The recent losses for Monfils came v Thiem, Chung (solid Korean player), Gilles Simon (fellow Frenchman), Stan Wawrinka (went on to the final in the French Open), and Gasquet (another Frenchie).
  • Norrie's form is unquantifiable as he is a Challenger player. Monfils has tended to lose to in-form quality players or....French Men. If Norrie wears a Beret he may win.
  • A hope that Monfils odds rise to make him backable. He should be winning 2-0 today.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkov v Heather Watson - 1.7 Ana

  • 16th v 111th.
  • No recent head to heads.
  • I noted yesterday that Cibulkova was in poor form but still layed Heather after a first set Heather win.
  • It is obvious that Heather, at home, improves markedly. I wish I had the UK stats to hand for her. Remember the Serena Williams match? Yesterday? Winning 2nd set v Svitolina in Birmingham?
  • First round Birmingham, 2nd round Eastbourne and quarter Finals Wimbledon for Ana last year. Solid grass court form.
  • Wins v 82nd and 65th for Ana so far this grass court season.
  • 384th, 39th and 13th has beaten Heather recently on grass.
  • 42nd and 4th beaten here at Eastbourne.
  • I will lay the first set winner as I wanted to do yesterday. Ana, if showing an ounce of her Wimbledon 2016 form, should not be losing 2-0. Cibulkova was in poor form and that was acknowledged by the research, Ana is not in bad form.

Angelique Kerber v Kristyna Pliskova - 1.57 Kerber

  • 2nd v 57th.
  • Kerber won in 2 straight sets in 2017's Australian Open.
  • Kerber was injured in Madrid and retired. She has since lost 2 consecutive matches in 2 straight sets.
  • A fully fit Kerber is solid on grass. Final last year at Wimbledon.
  • Qualifiers and 1st round Wimbledon last year for Pliskova.
  • 51-20 win/loss on grass for Pliskova so she is obviously comfortable.
  • This is a tough match to quantify. There is a shadow hanging over Kerber. Obviously a fully fit Kerber will win. But since her retirement she has lost in 2 straight sets.
  • The value is to lay Kerber if Kerber wins the first set - we'll get shorter odds.

Daniil Medvedev v Sam Querrey - 1.51 Sam

  • 63rd v 27th.
  • No head to heads.
  • Medvedev is good on grass, at least this year. He reached the quarter finals at 's-Hertogenbosch. He lost to Dimitrov in the Quarters at Queens, in 3 sets.
  • 2 3 set matches in his last 3 suggests Daniil should not be winning 2-0.
  • Last year Daniil did not get through the qualifiers at Wimbledon.
  • Querrey has lost to Thiem, Wawrinka, Chung and Simon recently. All top quality players.
  • He reached the quarters at queens, beating Thompson in 3 sets (Thompson beat Murray).
  • Semi final, third round, quarters at Wimbledon for Querrey on grass. Sam has a 2 to 1 ratio of Wins to losses in 3 setters on grass.
  • I think Daniil will not be winning 2-0 if he wins the first set. I would be happy to back Querrey at evens or thereabouts.

Caroline Wozniacki v Naomi Osaka - 1.37 Caroline

  • 11th v 46th.
  • Wozza won in 2 sets in Tokyo in 2016, Osaki's back yard!
  • Quarter Finals in the French Open must please Wozza. This is her first grass court event this year.
  • 3rd round Eastbourne last year and out at Wimbledon v Kuznetzova last year first round.
  • Very limited grass court form from Osaka last year.
  • Wins v 35th and 70th for Osaka on grass.
  • Wozza yet to play her grass court cards this year so an element of a gamble in relying on her today. She is obviously back to her best this year. It has really been a transformation and that should ensure she does not lose 2-0 against an Osaka who has not really been tested on grass by a top 15 player.

ANTALYA

Adrian Mannarino v Fernando Verdasco - 1.65 Verdasco

  • 51st v 36th.
  • Last head to heads 2010.
  • I will not research heavily. Rather like Lopez, I will side with Verdasco not to lose 2-0. He has a reliable feel despite losing to the far better ranked players.
  • Adrian therefore will be opposed if he wins the first set. Fernando won the first set yesterday so no trades there. If his odds rise first set, consider backing at perceived value odds.

Ramkumar Ramanathan v Marcos Baghdatis - 1.32 Marcos

  • Ramanathan was lucky to meet an uninterested Thiem yesterday who ordinarily would smash him to smithereens.
  • 264thv 60th.
  • 4 consecutive wins now for Ram includes 2 in qualifiers.
  • After 7 consecutive defeats, it's 2 wins for Baggy in Antalya, a straightforward 2 setter and a 3 setter last match v 62nd
  • The market is wholly unconvinced by Ram's beating of Thiem. A feeling he was there for the appearance money and little else.
  • Baggy I wrote off last match because of recent poor form but he showed his usual fight. Expect same tomorrow. I am still opposing Ram today.

Radu Albot v Paolo Lorenzi - 1.71 Radu

  • 81st v 38th.
  • Lorenzi win in 2017 Challenger head to head.
  • Albot is in overall  poor form.He reached semis in a recent Challenger event.
  • Albot recently beat 37th ranked player here.
  • In the same challenger which Albot reached the semi finals in, Lorenzi actually won - they met in the semi finals.
  • Lorenzi on grass lost in 2 sets to Alex Zverev in Halle.
  • Not a match greatly appealing to me. On very recent form, Lorenzi showed he can beat Albot.

Janko Tipsarevic v Andreas Seppi - 1.87 Janko

  • 2 of the favourites yesterday priced to win, and winning with relative ease.
  • Far tighter today.
  • 71st v 74th - tight rankings.
  • Last head to head 2011.
  • Very little to learn from strong favouritism for both players first match.
  • Not a match which greatly appeals.

Daniel Altmaier v Marsel Ilhan - 1.9 Ilhan

  • 255th v 257th. These matches can be left alone, in lieu of better ranked players.
  • Ilhan is a Turk in Turkey and that always counts for something.
  • Very little to learn from Ilhan's first match, a retirement for his opponent.
  • 3 setter for Altmaier v 83rd ranked player.
  • The odds suggest a 3 setter. Not sure I can rely on 2 such low ranked players.

David Ferrer v Yuichi Sugita - 1.93 Ferrer

  • 32nd v 91st.
  • No head to heads.
  • Ferrer lost to 46th Haase in Halle in 3 sets. Ferrer won the first set.
  • He lost in 5 sets to Lopez in the French Open. A typical battling performance.
  • 8:5 on grass win/loss for Ferrer in 3 set matches.
  • First round and 2nd round Wimbledon last year for Ferrer. Waining on grass?
  • Sugita won the Surbiton Challenger which is good enough form considering he beat Thompson, who beat Murray at Queens.
  • He was unlucky enough to meet Federer in Halle.
  • There is nothing in Sugita's form to suggest a 2-0 win over a fit Ferrer. I will lay Sugita if Sugita wins the first set.